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A detailed and comprehensive description of the state of the art in the field of flood forecasting opens this work. Advantages and shortcomings of currently available methods are identified and discussed. Amongst others, one important aspect considers the most exigent weak point of today's forecasting systems: The representation of all the fundamentally different event specific patterns of flood formation with one single set of model parameters. The study exemplarily proposes an alternative for overcoming this restriction by taking into account the different process characteristics of flood events via a dynamic parameterisation strategy. Other fundamental shortcomings in current approaches especially restrict the potential for real time flash flood forecasting, namely the considerable computational requirements together with the rather cumbersome operation of reliable physically based hydrologic models. The new PAI-OFF methodology (Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting) considers these problems and offers a way out of the general dilemma. It combines the reliability and predictive power of physically based, hydrologic models with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages feature extremely low computation times, absolute robustness and straightforward operation. Such qualities easily allow for predicting flash floods in small catchments taking into account precipitation forecasts, whilst extremely basic computational requirements open the way for online Monte Carlo analysis of the forecast uncertainty. The study encompasses a detailed analysis of hydrological modeling and a problem specific artificial intelligence approach in the form of artificial neural networks, which build the PAI-OFF methodology. Herein, the synthesis of process modelling and artificial neural networks is achieved by a special training procedure. It optimizes the network according to the patterns of possible catchment.
Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.
Flood disasters continue to occur in many countries in the world and cause tremendous casualties and property damage. To mitigate the effects of floods, a range of structural and non-structural measures have been employed including dykes, channelling, flood-proofing property, land-use regulation and flood warning schemes. Such schemes can include the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for modelling the rainfall run-off process as it is a quick and flexible approach which gives very promising results. However, the inability of ANN to extrapolate beyond the limits of the training range is a serious limitation of the method, and this book examines ways of side-stepping or solving this complex issue.
This dissertation considers various questions with respect to the effects of salinity on nutrification: what are the main inhibiting factors causing the effects, do all salts have similar effects, what is the maximum acceptable salt level, are ammonia oxidisers or nitrite oxidizers most sensitive to salt stress, can nitrifiers adapt to long term salt stress and are some specific nitrifiers more resistant to salt stress than others? Research was carried out at laboratory scale and in full-scale plants and modelling was employed in both phases to provide a mathematical description for salt inhibition on nitrification and to facilitate the comparison. The result has led to an improved understanding of the effect of salinity on nitrification. The results can be used to improve the sustainability of the exisisting wastewater treatment plants operated under salt stress.
Floods are the most frequent and costly natural disaster in Canada. Flow forecasting models can be used to provide an advance warning of flood risk and mitigate flood damage. Data-driven models have proven to be suitable for flow forecasting applications, yet there are several outstanding challenges associated with model development. Firstly, this research compares four methods for input variable selection for data-driven models, which are used to minimize model complexity and improve performance. Next, methods for reducing the temporal error for data-driven flood forecasting models are investigated. Two procedures are proposed to minimize timing error: error weighting and least-squares boosting. A class of performance measures called visual measures is used to discriminate between timing and amplitude errors, and hence quantifying the impacts of each correction procedure. These studies showcase methods for improving the performance of flow forecasting models, more reliable flood risk predictions, and better preparedness for flood events.
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based
This volume presents chapters highlighting the methodologies and tools developed to improve flood management and flood risk reduction.