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This book is for anyone who is interested in the economic analysis of the future of the international monetary system and the USD, and the rising importance of the RMB. It points out the unsustainability of the dollar standard in the long run, that China has unique incentives to internationalize its currency, and how Hong Kong plays an important role. It explains the real reasons for China to internationalize its currency, including using external commitments to force financial sector reforms ('daobi' in Chinese). It applies economic theories accessible to laymen to establish that financial development and openness are crucial for RMB internationalization to succeed, and that greater exchange rate volatility is inevitable due to the 'open-economy trilemma'. Employing the 'gravity model', the book predicts quantitatively that the RMB is likely to be a distant third payment currency after the USD and the euro, but surpassing the Japanese yen in the next decade.
China's currency, the renminbi, has taken the world by storm. This book documents the renminbi's impressive rise to global prominence in a short period but also shows how much further it has to go before becoming a major international currency. The hype about its inevitable ascendance to global dominance is overblown.
Economic analysis of the future of the international monetary system and the USD, and the rising importance of the RMB.
A complete resource to trading today's currency market Currency movements are impacted by a variety of factors, including interest rates, trade balances, inflation levels, monetary and fiscal policies, and the political climate. Traders use both fundamental data and a variety of technical tools to trade within this market. Inside the Currency Market describes both the underlying dynamics that drive this market and the strategies that can help you capture consistent profits in it. Page by page, this reliable guide skillfully discusses the structure of the market, its roles in the global economy, the forces that drive currency values, trading strategies, and tactics. It also offers a detailed understanding of how global financial flows, derivatives, and other markets such as oil and gold impact currencies. Along the way, author and professor Brian Twomey provides information on gathering and analyzing global financial data so that traders can gain a "big-picture" perspective when attempting to identify trades. Explains virtually every element of the market and can function as a desk reference that puts everyday events into context for traders Fundamentally driven trades based on interest rate differentials and trade imbalances are discussed, as well as technical trades involving chart patterns, trends, and trading ranges Each chapter contains questions and answers to help readers master the material The currency market continues to generate interest and attract new retail traders due to the many opportunities available within it. This book will show you how to successfully operate within this arena by making the most informed trading decisions possible.
The framework of "one currency, two markets" makes China's currency market quite unique compared to its Western counterparts. In this study, we characterize the linkage between the onshore and o shore Renminbi exchange rates, and estimate the effect of the recent Renminbi market reforms against the backdrop of Renminbi internationalization. Using GARCH-type models, we find robust evidence of the volatility clustering phenomenon and the leverage effect in the pricing differential between the onshore and o shore exchange rates. We also finf that the recentRenminbi currency market reforms all increase the volatility of the pricing differential between the two Renminbi markets, while these reforms are proved to either enlarge or shrink the pricing differential.
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
An accessible guide to trading the fast-moving foreign exchange market The foreign exchange market, or forex, was once dominated by global banks, hedge funds, and multinational corporations, but that has all changed with Internet technology and the advent of online forex brokers. Now, hundreds of thousands of traders and investors around the world can participate in this profitable field. Written by forex expert Kathy Lien, The Little Book of Currency Trading will show you how to effectively invest and trade in today's biggest market. Page by page, she describes the multitude of opportunities possible in the forex market, from short-term price swings to long-term trends, and details practical products that can help you achieve success, such as currency-based ETFs. Explains the forces that drive currencies and provides strategies to profit from them Reveals how you can use various currencies to reduce risk and take advantage of global trends Examines financial vehicles that can help you make money without having to monitor the market every day The Little Book of Currency Trading opens the world of currency trading and investing to anyone interested in entering this dynamic arena.
China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
Now you can master the art of foreign exchange trading While most currency trading and foreign exchange books focus on international finance theory or simplistic chart-based strategies, The Art of Currency Trading is a comprehensive guide that will teach you how to profitably trade currencies in the real world. Author Brent Donnelly has been a successful interbank FX trader for more than 20 years and in this book, he shares the specific strategies and tactics he has used to profit in the forex marketplace. The book helps investors understand and master foreign exchange trading in order to achieve sustainable long-term financial success. The book builds in intensity and depth one topic at a time, starting with the basics and moving on to intermediate then advanced setups and strategies. Whether you are new to currency trading or have years of experience, The Art of Currency Trading provides the information you need to learn to trade like an expert. This much-needed guide provides: an insider’s view of what drives currency price movements; a clear explanation of how to combine macro fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance and diligent risk management to trade successfully; specific techniques and setups you can use to make money trading foreign exchange; and steps you can take to better understand yourself and improve your trading psychology and discipline. Written for currency traders of all skill levels, international stock and bond investors, corporate treasurers, commodity traders, and asset managers, The Art of Currency Trading offers a comprehensive guide to foreign exchange trading written by a noted expert in the field.