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A vast literature uses cross-country regressions to find empirical links between policy indicators and long-run average growth rates. But conclusions from those studies are fragile if there are small changes in the independent variables.
We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more “optimistic” conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin’s results.
The design, implementation, and interpretation of cross- country investigations should be improved. This review of conceptual, methodological, and statistical weaknesses in cross- country studies suggests that existing findings warrant only limited confidence.
Essays exploring the relationship between economic growth and inequality and the implications for policy makers.
Explaining Growth attempts to compile the most comprehensive assessment of growth in developing and transition countries. The first phase has sought to review and discover broad similarities and comparable experiences in six regions spanning the developing world. In each region, studies were undertaken on sources of growth, markets and growth, microeconomic determinants of growth, and the political economy of growth. These reviews provide the framework for the in-depth country case studies in Phase II. This volume summarizes the main results of the regional analyses and sets the stage for the country studies.
Economic transformation and diversification require solutions that take account of the political economy of reform. This book explores the process of economic transformation, using Senegal as an example. Sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies are prerequisites for achieving this kind of transformation, but these policies need to include the appropriate industrial policies and good economic governance, which provide incentives to help small- and medium-sized enterprises emerge from the informal sector and for foreign direct investment to use the country as a platform for globally competitive production. In many low-income countries extensive rent seeking and patronage have generated stability at the expense of inclusive growth and held back development. Although policymakers know what is needed to address these problems and achieve economic transformation and diversification, how to do it remains a challenge. This book shows how the political economy of reform may be navigated to achieve transformation. For example, the use of special economic zones may solve the problem if good global governance is emphasized, along with linking the zones to the global economy.
Determinants of economic growth: An overview Thijs de Ruyter van Steveninck, Nico van der Windt, and Maaike Oosterbaan Netherlands Economic Institute What causes economic growth? Why have some countries grown much faster than others? Why do some countries not grow at all, or even experience negative (per capita) growth rates? What can governments do to raise the growth rates of their country? These questions were discussed at a conference on March 23 and 24, 1998, organized by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) on behalf of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This book contains the proceedings of the conference. Economic growth is widely considered as a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for poverty alleviation. During the past two decades, scholars and researchers have found a renewed interest in thinking about economic growth, and advances in the understanding of economic growth have taken place. On the one hand, the theoretical understanding of growth has progressed on various fronts, including endogenous technological innovation and increasing returns to scale; the interaction of population, fertility, human capital, and growth; international spill-overs in technology and capital accumulation; and the role of institutions. On the other hand, the increasing availability and use of data sets has given a large incentive to empirical research on cross-country growth, following the path-breaking work ofBarro (1991).
The establishment of good governance is a major challenge for the developing world, along with the need to sustain the progress resulting from developmental efforts. Although there are numerous studies on the development and governance of emerging nations, few volumes make a serious effort to bring together these two critical concepts. International Development Governance combines the two concepts - development and governance - by examining the issues and problems faced by nations in their attempts to establish sustainable governance. This textbook also initiates discussions on the concept of development governance in an international context. The book fills the gap in existing literature by drawing upon the experience and expertise of scholars from a broad spectrum of knowledge. Their views explain the issues and problems with reference to a number of tools that could establish "development governance" and sustain it. The text offers in-depth examinations of developmental sectors, resulting in a textbook that will inspire future public officials, policy makers, and consultants to contribute to the betterment of life for citizens of developing countries.
Although the theme of the monograph is primarily related to “Applied Econometrics”, there are several theoretical contributions that are associated with empirical examples, or directions in which the novel theoretical ideas might be applied. The monograph is associated with significant and novel contributions in theoretical and applied econometrics; economics; theoretical and applied financial econometrics; quantitative finance; risk; financial modeling; portfolio management; optimal hedging strategies; theoretical and applied statistics; applied time series analysis; forecasting; applied mathematics; energy economics; energy finance; tourism research; tourism finance; agricultural economics; informatics; data mining; bibliometrics; and international rankings of journals and academics.