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When the U.S. Department of the Interior released its 1989 estimates of how much undiscovered oil and gas remain in the United States, a controversy ensued. Some members of the petroleum industry charged that the estimates were too low. This book evaluates the scientific credibility of the statistical and geological methods underlying the estimates.
Witnesses: Kathleen Clarke, Dir., Bureau of Land Mgmt., Dept. of the Interior; W. Thomas Goerold, Owner, Lookout Mountain Analysis; Debra Knopman, Sr. Engineer/Associate Dir., RAND (R&D) Science & Technology; Charles Mankin, State Geologist of Oklahoma, on behalf of the Amer. Assoc. of Petroleum Geologists; Peter Morton, Resource Economist, The Wilderness Soc.; & Ray Seegmiller, Chmn., Pres. & CEO, on behalf of Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. & Domestic Petroleum Council. Additional materials submitted for the record: Amer. Petroleum Institute, Statement; Jeffrey Eppink, Advanced Resources International, Statement; & William Whitsitt, Pres., Domestic Petroleum Council, Letter & paper.
The authors examine four recent traditionalassessments of the nation's potential supply of natural gas and oilresources. They suggest a new methodology: estimating viable resource,which is the gas and oil resource that is available when exploration andproduction costs, infrastructure and transportation costs, and environmentalimpacts are considered. This methodology will be used in future research onspecific geographic areas.The authors examine four recent traditional assessments of the nation'spotential supply of natural gas and oil resources. The assessments were doneby the U.S. Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team,the Minerals Management Service, the National Petroleum Council, and thePotential Gas Committee. Although the assessments vary, they each indicatethat the Intermountain West contains substantial natural gas and oilresources. Traditional resource assessments, however, are intended toestimate the technically recoverable resource, which does not reflect theamount of resource that can realistically be produced. This report lays thefoundation for determining the viable gas and oil resource: that which isavailable when exploration and production costs, infrastructure andtransportation costs, and environmental impacts are considered. The nextstep in the research will be to apply this methodology to estimate theviable resource in individual geographic areas. The analysis will specifythe relationships among gas and oil deposits, technological options,economic costs, infrastructure requirements, environmental impacts, andother variables to allow for a comprehensive assessment of the viable gasand oil resource.
The goal of traditional resource assessments is to estimate the nation's potential supply of natural gas and oil resources. As part of our research, we examined four recent assessments: the U.S. Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, 1995; Minerals Management Service, 2000; National Petroleum Council, 1999; and Potential Gas Committee, 20012 Although the assessments vary, they agree that the Intermountain West contains substantial natural gas and oil resources. These assessments estimate what is called the "technically recoverable" resource3-the amount of the resource that is estimated to be recoverable given certain assumptions about exploration and production capabilities. Resources are evaluated in terms of geological criteria and technical feasibility of recovery, but without economic or other considerations. These estimates, therefore, are not intended to indicate how much resource will likely be developed and at what cost.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses petroleum resources of areas within the United States and the world. The purpose of this report is to explain the development of an analytic probabilistic method and spreadsheet software system called Analytic Cell-Based Continuous Energy Spreadsheet System (ACCESS). The ACCESS method is based upon mathematical equations derived from probability theory. The ACCESS spreadsheet can be used to calculate estimates of the undeveloped oil, gas, and NGL (natural gas liquids) resources in a continuous-type assessment unit. An assessment unit is a mappable volume of rock in a total petroleum system. In this report, the geologic assessment model is defined first, the analytic probabilistic method is described second, and the spreadsheet ACCESS is described third. In this revised version of Open-File Report 00–044, the text has been updated to reflect modifications that were made to the ACCESS program. Two versions of the program are added as appendixes.