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Non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets in many Asian emerging market currencies are large, rapidly growing, and often exceed onshore markets in transaction volume. NDFs tend to price significant depreciation during market stress episodes including COVID-19. Spillovers from NDFs to onshore markets are a policymaker concern. Our analysis shows that influences tend to run both ways after controlling for differences in timezones between markets. For the COVID-19 pandemic there is some evidence of NDFs leading onshore markets for a few currencies. Policy approaches to NDFs vary widely across Asia from close integration with onshore markets to severe restrictions on NDF trading.
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Since late 2002 there have been many disputes and discussions around the world on whether or not the Chinese yuan (CNY), or renminbi (RMB), should be revalued. Based on various arguments and discussions, the CNY has been expected to be revalued worldwide, as evidenced by the significant premiums for the CNY non-deliverable forwards in the offshore marketplace. With the CNY revaluation perspectives, hundreds of billions of US dollars have been invested in various types of CNY-related derivatives products. The purpose of this book is not to tell the reader whether the RMB should be revalued, or by how much it should be revalued, as these questions are the work of economists. Instead, as a derivatives specialist with more than te years' experience in the international financial market and with working experience in China in the past few years, the author presents trading of CNY-related derivatives products in the offshore marketplace. The book is organized into five parts. The first part familiarizes readers with the Chinese economy in transition and the Chinese financial market, so that they can make their own judgment as to whether or not the CNY should be revalued. Part II presents major foreign exchange derivatives trading in organized exchanges and the over-the-counter marketplace around the world. Part III reviews what foreign exchange products were involved both before and during the Asian financial crisis, because many of them were used to speculate or hedge against devaluations of the Asian currencies. Part IV studies various CNY-related derivatives products and embedded derivatives products. Finally, Part V examines the possible impacts of these derivatives products on the CNYexchange rate, based on the experiences of other currencies such as the Korean won and the New Taiwan dollar.
In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.
Erik Banks, responsible for global risk management at Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, has written another text on the derivatives field covering innovation in these instruments in Asia Pacific. The text acts as a detailed reference on the nature of these markets and the prospects for the Asian derivative markets, both listed and OTC. He also includes an analysis of the Australian, New Zealand and Japanese markets to fit the emerging markets into context.
Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia’s financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.
This study is among the first to examine the theory and practice of monetary policy in South Korea. Woosik Moon provides a detailed analysis of the central bank of South Korea, one of the most successful and important economies in Asia. He covers everything from monetary policy to inflation targeting and macroprudential regulation, explaining how these policy tools were used to deal with the aftermath of the 2007-2011 financial crisis. He then brings his study into our current moment, speculating as to how the use of these policies will change in order to deal with the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. This book offers in-depth investigations and the provision of the most up-to-date information about the Bank of Korea's monetary and financial actions, serving as essential reading for central bankers and professionals of financial markets around the world, as well as anyone interested in monetary policy-making.
"Examines Asia's emerging markets, which survived the financial debacle of 2008-09 with only modest declines in growth; discusses activities that could dampen continuing development in these markets including inflation, surging capital inflows, asset and credit bubbles, and rapid currency appreciation; and offers strategies to promote financial stability"--Provided by publisher.
A thorough introduction to corporate finance from a renowned professor of finance and banking As globalization redefines the field of corporate finance, international and domestic finance have become almost inseparably intertwined. It's increasingly difficult to understand what is happening in capital markets without a firm grasp of currency markets, the investment strategies of sovereign wealth funds, carry trade, and foreign exchange derivatives products. International Corporate Finance offers thorough coverage of the international monetary climate, including Islamic finance, Asian banking, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Additionally, the book offers keen insight on global capital markets, equity markets, and bond markets, as well as foreign exchange risk management and how to forecast exchange rates. Offers a comprehensive discussion of the current state of international corporate finance Provides simple rules and pragmatic answers to key managerial questions and issues Includes case studies and real-world decision-making situations For anyone who wants to understand how finance works in today's hyper-connected global economy, International Corporate Finance is an insightful, practical guide to this complex subject.