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The French economy rebounded quickly following the COVID-19 crisis, in particular thanks to the acceleration of the vaccination campaign and strong public support measures. Rapid and effective implementation of the recovery and investment plans would help support stronger and more sustainable growth.
Estonia’s economy continues to perform well, and growing incomes support well-being. However, the expansion has peaked, and growth is set to soften due to weak international demand. Prudent fiscal policy has resulted in low debt, but spending pressures related to meeting infrastructure needs and ageing are mounting. Old age poverty is high and the proposal to allow early withdrawal of pension funds threatens macroeconomic stability and pension adequacy. The gender wage gap is among the highest in the OECD, and inequalities in income and health are considerable, reflecting gaps in the social safety net. The oil-shale sector is highly energy-intensive and is the main culprit behind Estonia’s high greenhouse gas emissions, but reducing dependence on the sector is challenging, as it is an important employer and meets 70% of Estonia’s energy needs.
Economic activity has contracted less in Korea than in other OECD countries, thanks to the prompt and effective reaction of the authorities to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus and to the wide-ranging government support to households and businesses. Nevertheless, the pandemic generates strong headwinds.
Growth has rebounded from the pandemic and the energy crisis, despite the 2023 earthquake and droughts. Morocco has benefitted from a stable macroeconomic regime and the deficit is narrowing following the pandemic and energy crisis with the government debt ratio is around 70% of GDP. Morocco has embarked on major reforms to encourage investment and to extend health insurance and social protection, but a stronger convergence path will be needed to achieve the vision in the New Development Model. Morocco’s labour productivity gap with the frontier remains large, although it has narrowed. FDI flows have been strong, but domestic private investment is low, and Moroccan firms face obstacles in performing better. Morocco’s young population is an asset, but the labour market suffers from high youth unemployment and low female employment. Emigration is significant. Widespread informality leads to low wages, poor-quality jobs and weak skills. Morocco has made an ambitious commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010 and to net zero by 2050, benefiting from the country’s potential for renewables-based generation. The country is vulnerable to climate change and already faces significant water stress. SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING INVESTMENT, FIRM PERFORMANCE AND PRODUCTIVITY; CREATING MORE AND BETTER JOBS
The Spanish economy entered a deep recession in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A strong government response has protected jobs and firms. However, the crisis has exacerbated long-standing structural challenges, such as high unemployment, inequalities and regional disparities.
India has been a growth champion in recent years and has succeeded in taming inflation, the current account deficit and non-performing loans. India's participation in the global economy has risen, with outstanding performances in some services, while the largest diaspora in the world is an asset in developing new markets. India has also lifted many millions of people out of poverty and has made access to housing for all a priority. Ambitious structural reforms -- including better targeted household support, financial inclusion initiatives, the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, the new approach to federalism and the corporate income tax reform -- have played a key role.
The COVID-19 outbreak is worsening an already fragile economic outlook. Since 2013, growth has been modest and unemployment has been rising. Policy uncertainty has been the main driver of low confidence and subdued investment. Following a sharp fiscal deterioration in recent years, the crisis also heightened debt sustainability challenges.
Greece’s economy had been expanding by nearly 2% for over three years before the COVID-19 shock. Structural reforms, high primary budget surpluses and debt measures underpinned Greece’s recovery and rising confidence. Then the COVID-19 pandemic struck, abruptly interrupting the recovery and adding new challenges to raising inclusiveness, competitiveness and growth.
Swiss citizens continue to enjoy high living standards on a range of dimensions. Economic growth has slowed but the healthy labour market is still supporting incomes and consumption. However, risks to the outlook are building. Monetary policy has been very accommodative but low interest rates are adding to financial risks. Fiscal policy is sound and debt low. There is scope to make greater use of available fiscal space. Adapting to population ageing is becoming pressing. This trend, along with digital transformation, will bring new opportunities for the economy and society, but challenges as well. Policies have not kept up with rising life expectancy, particularly the statutory retirement age. Updating the pension system and lowering barriers to working longer would ensure that workers continue to receive adequate incomes during retirement. Ageing will also pressure health care spending and increase demand for long-term care. Policies to contain costs and reduce fragmentation in the system can help maintain access to quality care. Switzerland is well placed to seize the opportunities offered by new technologies. Addressing the barriers to adoption, improving the availability of information and helping workers adapt will enable firms, individuals and governments to reap the benefits of digitalisation. SPECIAL FEATURE: POLICIES FOR AN AGEING SOCIETY
Like many countries, the United Kingdom has been hit severely by the COVID-19 outbreak. A strict lockdown was essential to contain the pandemic but halted activity in many key sectors. While restrictions have eased, the country now faces a prolonged period of disruption to activity and jobs, which risks exacerbating pre-existing weak productivity growth, inequalities, child poverty and regional disparities. On-going measures to prevent a second wave of infections will need to be carefully calibrated to manage the economic impact.