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Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.
As our title reveals, we focus on optimal control methods and applications relevant to linear dynamic economic systems in discrete-time variables. We deal only with discrete cases simply because economic data are available in discrete forms, hence realistic economic policies should be established in discrete-time structures. Though many books have been written on optimal control in engineering, we see few on discrete-type optimal control. More over, since economic models take slightly different forms than do engineer ing ones, we need a comprehensive, self-contained treatment of linear optimal control applicable to discrete-time economic systems. The present work is intended to fill this need from the standpoint of contemporary macroeconomic stabilization. The work is organized as follows. In Chapter 1 we demonstrate instru ment instability in an economic stabilization problem and thereby establish the motivation for our departure into the optimal control world. Chapter 2 provides fundamental concepts and propositions for controlling linear deterministic discrete-time systems, together with some economic applica tions and numerical methods. Our optimal control rules are in the form of feedback from known state variables of the preceding period. When state variables are not observable or are accessible only with observation errors, we must obtain appropriate proxies for these variables, which are called "observers" in deterministic cases or "filters" in stochastic circumstances. In Chapters 3 and 4, respectively, Luenberger observers and Kalman filters are discussed, developed, and applied in various directions. Noticing that a separation principle lies between observer (or filter) and controller (cf.
This book examines macroeconomic theory from an analytical framework provided by theories of complex systems, in contrast to conventional theories founded on aggregation. The resulting difference in analytical perspectives is huge: the macro level of society is not pursued through aggregation over micro entities. To the contrary, the micro-macro relation is treated as one of parts-to-whole, and this relation is approached from within an ecological scheme of thought. A society is a complex ecology of plans. That ecology, however, is not reducible to a single plan. Conventional macro theory presents a national economy as a collection of such aggregate variables as output, employment, investment, and a price level, and seeks to develop theoretical relationships among those variables. In contrast, the social-theoretic approach to macro or social theory in this book treats the standard macro variables as having been shaped through social institutions, conventions, and processes that in turn are generated through interaction among economizing persons. The object denoted as macro is thus of a higher order of complexity than the object denoted as micro.
This book uses systemic thinking and applies it to the study of financial crises. It systematically presents how the systemic yoyo model, its thinking logic, and its methodology can be employed as a common playground and intuition to the study of money, international finance, and economic reforms. This book establishes theoretical backings for why some of the most employed interferences of the market and empirical experiences actually work. It has become urgent for economists and policy makers to understand how international speculative capital affects the economic security of various nations. By looking at the issues of monetary movement around the world, this book shows that there are clearly visible patterns behind the flows of capital, and that there are a uniform language and logic of reasoning that can be powerfully employed in the studies of international finance As shown in this book, many of the conclusions drawn on the basis of these visible patterns, language, and logic of thinking can be practically applied to produce tangible economic benefits. Currency Wars: Offense and Defense through Systemic Thinking is divided into six parts. The first part addresses issues related to systemic modeling of economic entities and processes and explains how a few policy changes can adjust the performance of the extremely complex economy. Part II of the book investigates the problem of how instabilities lead to opportunities for currency attacks, the positive and negative effects of foreign capital, and how international capital flows can cause disturbances of various degrees on a nation’s economic security. Part III examines how a currency war is initiated, why currency conflicts and wars are inevitable, and a specific way of how currency attacks can take place. In Part IV, the book shows how one nation can potential defend itself by manipulating exchange rate of its currency, how the nation under siege can protect itself against financial attacks by using strategies based on the technique of feedback, and develops a more general approach of self-defense. Part V focuses on issues related to the cleanup of the disastrous aftermath of currency attacks through using policies and reforms. Finally the book concludes in Part VI as it analyzes specific real-life cases and addresses the ultimate problem of whether or not currency wars can be avoided all together.
Specifically written to assist in the quick retrieval of commercial, industrial, manufacturing, communicative, automotive, and agricultural research, this reference conveniently assembles the most recent print and electronic research tools, compact discs, and online databases for swift collection and organization of information in the business, marketing, and financial communities.
This book explores diverse economic systems and the choices societies must face in determining which economic systems best suit their needs.
Demand for decentralization is strong in most parts of the world. This close look at the negative side effects of improperly appled decentralization is not an attack on decentralization but an effort to prevent its misapplication -- and to promote fuller understanding and wiser use of this potentially desirable policy.
The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.