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21. Simulating Future Climate G. J. Boer 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 2 International Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . 490 3 Simulating Historical and Future Climate 492 4 Climate Change in the 20th Century . . . 495 5 Simulating Future Climate Change 498 6 Climate Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation 501 7 Summary . 502 Index 505 PREFACE Numerical modeling ofthe global atmosphere has entered a new era. Whereas atmospheric modeling was once the domain ofa few research units at universities or government laboratories, it can now be performed almost anywhere thanks to the affordability of computing power. Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are being used by a rapidly growing scientific community in a wide range of applications. With widespread interest in anthropogenic climate change, GCMs have a role also in informing policy discussions. Many of the scientists using GCMs have backgrounds in fields other than atmospheric sciences and may be unaware of how GCMs are constructed. Recognizing this explosion in the application of GCMs, we organized a two week course in order to give young scientists who are relatively new to the field of atmospheric modeling a thorough grounding in the basic principles on which GCMs are constructed, an insight into their strengths and weaknesses, and guid ance on how meaningful numerical experiments are formulated and analyzed. Sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other institu tions, this Advanced Study Institute (ASI) took place May 25-June 5, 1998, at II Ciocco, a remote hotel on a Tuscan hillside in Italy.
Different kinds of two-dimensional numerical models of primary and secondary pollutants with removal mechanisms are presented in detail in this book. The effect of air pollution with reference to area source and point source along with large scale and mesoscale wind velocity profiles are discussed in detail. One of the important atmospheric phenomena is the conversion of air pollutants from gaseous to particulate form. The primary pollutants which are emitted directly to the atmosphere are converted into secondary pollutants by means of chemical reaction. The effect of removal mechanisms such as dry deposition, gravitational settling are also discussed. The governing partial differential equations of primary and secondary pollutants are solved by using Crank-Nicolson implicit finite difference technique. Consistency, stability and convergence criteria have been tested for the numerical scheme used in various models. Concentration contours are plotted and the results are analyzed for primary and secondary pollutants in stable and neutral atmospheric conditions for various meteorological parameters and transformation processes.
Current developments in air pollution modeling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modeling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modeling; emission modeling and processing; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. This work is a collection of selected papers presented at the 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, held in Ottawa, Canada, May 14-18, 2018. The book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modeling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models.
This volume covers aspects of numerical modeling of the atmosphere and climate from the microscales of turbulence to the very large scales associated with climate and climatic change. Each of the three major spatio-temporal scales of the atmosphere, namely, the microscale, the mesoscale, and the macroscale is addressed through a hierarchy of models. Results of model simulations are illustrated throughout the text, with many of these examples based on the author's original research work. For each type of model discussed here, the theoretical background, including governing equation sets, simplifying assumptions, and advantages and limits of the models, is provided. The topic of coupled, or nested, modeling systems as a promising approach to air pllution embedded in regional atmospheric flows, as well as to the regional atmospheric response to global climate forcings, is also addressed. An attempt is made throughout the book to highlight the highly interdisciplinary nature of atmospheric modeling, particularly in those sections dealing with climatic change issues.
The ITM conference series has always had a strong spirit of cooperation under the NATO/CCMS umbrella, and with the considerable interest fram Partner countries to participate in the ITM conferences, it provides an excellent opportunity to create ties between scientists. Whereas all previous ITM conferences have taken place in NATO countries, the 23rd ITM takes place in a Cooperative Partner country, Bulgaria, and is hosted by the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. This fact reflects a general wish for a closer connection and collaboration among scientists fram Partner and NATO countries. This volume contains the papers from the 23rd NATO/CCMS International Technical Meetings on Air Pollution Modelling and Its Application, being held September 28 - October 2, 1998, at Riviera Holiday Club, Varna, Bulgaria. It was attended by 120 participants from 30 countries. Thanks are due to all who made it possible to plan, carry through, and follow up the meeting, and to the participants who made the conference so successful. Special thanks are due to the sponsoring institutions: ATO/CCMS EURASAP RIS0 BAS 3M NATO/CCMS - Committee on the Challenges of Modem Society EURASAP - European Association for the Science of Air Pollution RIS0 - Ris0 National Laboratory, Denmark NIMH - National Institute of Meteorology and Hydralogy, Bulgaria BAS - Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 3M Representation office, Bulgaria Prestige Business Ltd. , Bulgaria The excellent collaboration with CIM (Company for International Meetings Ltd.
This book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modeling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models. Current developments in air pollution modeling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modeling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modeling; emission modeling and processing; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; aerosol transformation. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. This work is a collection of selected papers presented at the 37th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, held in Hamburg, Germany, September 23-27, 2019.
In 1949, when the North Atlantic Treaty was ratified, one of its articles explicitly noted '1hat member countries should contribute towards the further development of peaceful and friendly international relations." Specific problems related to the human environment were addressed by the Committee of Challenges of Modern Society (CCMS) of NATO, established in 1969. This provided a framework within which a series of International Technical Meetings (ITMs) on Air Pollution Modelling has been held. This volume documents the proceedings of the 18th meeting in this series. Science, like the arts and sports, provides an ideal vehicle for "developing peaceful and friendly international relations". National boundaries have never been barriers to the movement of air pollution, and fortunately this has also proved true of scientists studying the transport of air pollution. It is thus satisfying to record that since the mid-seventies it has been commonplace to find Eastern European scientists among attendees at the ITMs which have (in a very modest way) participated in a precursor to the process which has led to historical changes in Europe and which will undoubtedly lead to a tremendous increase in personal and intellectual exchange on a worldwide basis.
Current developments in air pollution modelling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modelling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modelling; long term modelling and trend analysis; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; aerosol transformation. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. This Work is a collection of selected papers presented at the 35th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, held in Chania (Crete), Greece, Oct 3-7, 2016. The book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modelling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models.
In this volume, we present the lectures given during the 1984 OHOLO Conference, held in Zichron Yaacov, Israel. The Conference was organized by the Israel Institute for Biological Research, Department of Mathematics, which is involved in Environmental Risk Evaluation, and in Projects Estimating the Potential of Wind Energy. The lectures cover a broad spectrum of mathematical models, ranging from those that deal with the solution of atmospheric conservation equations, and to those models that yield empirical estimates based on real time measure ments and thus are unique to the locale where measured. The goal of the Conference was to allow scientists from various countries to meet and discuss topics of mutual interest, including the following: 1. Structure of the boundary layer - primarily models dealing in the understanding of the various processes of atmospheric energy transfer, and their influence on the size and composition of the boundary 1 ayer. 2. Advanced mathematical techniques for describing flow and diffusion - lectures on approximations and techniques for solving the diffu sion and transport equations. 3. Flow over complex terrain - research into various aspects of the problem - mathematical models, physical models, experimental results. 4. Models of pollution transport and deposition.