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Advances in physics, computers, and mathematics have made it possible to illustrate an astonishing array of potential behavior that can occur when nonlinear interactions are present. As Prigogine explains from a physicist's perspective, the fundamental role of instability and bounded rationality provide more precise understanding for evolution and changes. This volume considers these developments from various fields in the context of economic science. The work starts with a general non-mathematical discussion, introducing the major themes--nonlinearity, dynamical systems, and evolution in economic processes. The work continues with nonlinear analysis of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations. It describes analyses of economic adaptation, learning, and self-organization. The volume also scrutinizes a specific market--equities using nonlinear analysis, controlled experiments, and statistical inference when nonlinearity plays an essential role in data generation. The volume closes with an historical reflection by Richard Goodwin and a roundtable discussion on basic issues and new challenges in nonlinear economic dynamics.
1. 1 Introduction In economics, one often observes time series that exhibit different patterns of qualitative behavior, both regular and irregular, symmetric and asymmetric. There exist two different perspectives to explain this kind of behavior within the framework of a dynamical model. The traditional belief is that the time evolution of the series can be explained by a linear dynamic model that is exogenously disturbed by a stochastic process. In that case, the observed irregular behavior is explained by the influence of external random shocks which do not necessarily have an economic reason. A more recent theory has evolved in economics that attributes the patterns of change in economic time series to an underlying nonlinear structure, which means that fluctua tions can as well be caused endogenously by the influence of market forces, preference relations, or technological progress. One of the main reasons why nonlinear dynamic models are so interesting to economists is that they are able to produce a great variety of possible dynamic outcomes - from regular predictable behavior to the most complex irregular behavior - rich enough to meet the economists' objectives of modeling. The traditional linear models can only capture a limited number of possi ble dynamic phenomena, which are basically convergence to an equilibrium point, steady oscillations, and unbounded divergence. In any case, for a lin ear system one can write down exactly the solutions to a set of differential or difference equations and classify them.
When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Dr. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are "dangerous for good or evil." In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises" points to their ability to do good. - Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations - Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity - Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behavior and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events
Using models, developed in one branch of science, to describe similar behaviors encountered in a different one, is the essence of a synergetic approach. A wide range of topics has been developed including Agent-based models, econophysics, socio-economic networks, information, bounded rationality and learning in economics, markets as complex adaptive systems evolutionary economics, multiscale analysis and modeling, nonlinear dynamics and econometrics, physics of risk, statistical and probabilistic methods in economics and finance. Complexity. This publication concentrates on process behavior of economic systems and building models that stem from Haken's, Prigogine's, Taylor's work as well as from nuclear physics models.
Economic application of nonlinear dynamics, microscopic agent-based modelling, and the use of artificial intelligence techniques as learning devices of boundedly rational actors are among the most exciting interdisciplinary ventures of economic theory over the past decade. This volume provides us with a most fascinating series of examples on "complexity in action" exemplifying the scope and explanatory power of these innovative approaches.
This 1997 book presents developments in nonlinear economic dynamics along with related research from other fields, including mathematics, statistics, biology, and physics.
Analyzes approaches to the study of complexity in the physical, biological, and social sciences.
First Published in 1996. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
This textbook is aimed at newcomers to nonlinear dynamics and chaos, especially students taking a first course in the subject. The presentation stresses analytical methods, concrete examples, and geometric intuition. The theory is developed systematically, starting with first-order differential equations and their bifurcations, followed by phase plane analysis, limit cycles and their bifurcations, and culminating with the Lorenz equations, chaos, iterated maps, period doubling, renormalization, fractals, and strange attractors.
​This book both summarizes the basic theory of evolutionary games and explains their developing applications, giving special attention to the 2-player, 2-strategy game. This game, usually termed a "2×2 game” in the jargon, has been deemed most important because it makes it possible to posit an archetype framework that can be extended to various applications for engineering, the social sciences, and even pure science fields spanning theoretical biology, physics, economics, politics, and information science. The 2×2 game is in fact one of the hottest issues in the field of statistical physics. The book first shows how the fundamental theory of the 2×2 game, based on so-called replicator dynamics, highlights its potential relation with nonlinear dynamical systems. This analytical approach implies that there is a gap between theoretical and reality-based prognoses observed in social systems of humans as well as in those of animal species. The book explains that this perceived gap is the result of an underlying reciprocity mechanism called social viscosity. As a second major point, the book puts a sharp focus on network reciprocity, one of the five fundamental mechanisms for adding social viscosity to a system and one that has been a great concern for study by statistical physicists in the past decade. The book explains how network reciprocity works for emerging cooperation, and readers can clearly understand the existence of substantial mechanics when the term "network reciprocity" is used. In the latter part of the book, readers will find several interesting examples in which evolutionary game theory is applied. One such example is traffic flow analysis. Traffic flow is one of the subjects that fluid dynamics can deal with, although flowing objects do not comprise a pure fluid but, rather, are a set of many particles. Applying the framework of evolutionary games to realistic traffic flows, the book reveals that social dilemma structures lie behind traffic flow.