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This text emphasizes nonlinear models for a course in time series analysis. After introducing stochastic processes, Markov chains, Poisson processes, and ARMA models, the authors cover functional autoregressive, ARCH, threshold AR, and discrete time series models as well as several complementary approaches. They discuss the main limit theorems for Markov chains, useful inequalities, statistical techniques to infer model parameters, and GLMs. Moving on to HMM models, the book examines filtering and smoothing, parametric and nonparametric inference, advanced particle filtering, and numerical methods for inference.
The paradigm of deterministic chaos has influenced thinking in many fields of science. Chaotic systems show rich and surprising mathematical structures. In the applied sciences, deterministic chaos provides a striking explanation for irregular behaviour and anomalies in systems which do not seem to be inherently stochastic. The most direct link between chaos theory and the real world is the analysis of time series from real systems in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Experimental technique and data analysis have seen such dramatic progress that, by now, most fundamental properties of nonlinear dynamical systems have been observed in the laboratory. Great efforts are being made to exploit ideas from chaos theory wherever the data displays more structure than can be captured by traditional methods. Problems of this kind are typical in biology and physiology but also in geophysics, economics, and many other sciences.
Linear, Time-varying Approximations to Nonlinear Dynamical Systems introduces a new technique for analysing and controlling nonlinear systems. This method is general and requires only very mild conditions on the system nonlinearities, setting it apart from other techniques such as those – well-known – based on differential geometry. The authors cover many aspects of nonlinear systems including stability theory, control design and extensions to distributed parameter systems. Many of the classical and modern control design methods which can be applied to linear, time-varying systems can be extended to nonlinear systems by this technique. The implementation of the control is therefore simple and can be done with well-established classical methods. Many aspects of nonlinear systems, such as spectral theory which is important for the generalisation of frequency domain methods, can be approached by this method.
A comprehensive resource that draws a balance between theory and applications of nonlinear time series analysis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers an important guide to both parametric and nonparametric methods, nonlinear state-space models, and Bayesian as well as classical approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. The authors—noted experts in the field—explore the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and review the improvements upon linear time series models. The need for this book is based on the recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis, statistical learning, dynamic systems and advanced computational methods. Parametric and nonparametric methods and nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models provide a much wider range of tools for time series analysis. In addition, advances in computing and data collection have made available large data sets and high-frequency data. These new data make it not only feasible, but also necessary to take into consideration the nonlinearity embedded in most real-world time series. This vital guide: • Offers research developed by leading scholars of time series analysis • Presents R commands making it possible to reproduce all the analyses included in the text • Contains real-world examples throughout the book • Recommends exercises to test understanding of material presented • Includes an instructor solutions manual and companion website Written for students, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in exploring nonlinearity in time series, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers a comprehensive text that explores the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and demonstrates the improvements upon linear time series models.
This is the first book that integrates useful parametric and nonparametric techniques with time series modeling and prediction, the two important goals of time series analysis. Such a book will benefit researchers and practitioners in various fields such as econometricians, meteorologists, biologists, among others who wish to learn useful time series methods within a short period of time. The book also intends to serve as a reference or text book for graduate students in statistics and econometrics.
This third edition includes the corrections made by the late C. Truesdell in his personal copy. It is annotated by S. Antman who describes the monograph`s genesis and the impact it has made on the modern development of mechanics. Originally published as Volume III/3 of the famous Encyclopedia of Physics in 1965, this book describes and summarizes "everything that was both known and worth knowing in the field at the time." It also has greatly contributed to the unification and standardization of the concepts, terms and notations in the field.
This book provides a unique survey displaying the power of Riccati equations to describe reversible and irreversible processes in physics and, in particular, quantum physics. Quantum mechanics is supposedly linear, invariant under time-reversal, conserving energy and, in contrast to classical theories, essentially based on the use of complex quantities. However, on a macroscopic level, processes apparently obey nonlinear irreversible evolution equations and dissipate energy. The Riccati equation, a nonlinear equation that can be linearized, has the potential to link these two worlds when applied to complex quantities. The nonlinearity can provide information about the phase-amplitude correlations of the complex quantities that cannot be obtained from the linearized form. As revealed in this wide ranging treatment, Riccati equations can also be found in many diverse fields of physics from Bose-Einstein-condensates to cosmology. The book will appeal to graduate students and theoretical physicists interested in a consistent mathematical description of physical laws.
In the last two years or so, I was most fortunate in being given opportunities of lecturing on a new methodology to a variety of audiences in Britain, China, Finland, France and Spain. Despite my almost Confucian attitude of preferring talking (i.e. a transient record) to writing (i.e. a permanent record), the warm encouragement of friends has led to the ensuing notes. I am also only too conscious of the infancy of the methodology introduced in these notes. However, it is my sincere hope that exposure to a wider audience will accelerate its maturity. Readers are assumed to be familiar with the basic theory of time series analysis. The book by Professor M.B. Priestley (1981) may be used as a general reference. Chapter One is addressed to the general question: "why do we need non-linear time series models?" After describing some significant advantages of linear models, it singles out several major limitations of linearity. Of course, the selection reflects my personal view on the subject, which is only at its very beginning, although there does seem to be a general agreement in the literature that time irr'eversibility and limit cycles are among the most obvious.
Linear and Non-Linear System Theory focuses on the basics of linear and non-linear systems, optimal control and optimal estimation with an objective to understand the basics of state space approach linear and non-linear systems and its analysis thereof. Divided into eight chapters, materials cover an introduction to the advanced topics in the field of linear and non-linear systems, optimal control and estimation supported by mathematical tools, detailed case studies and numerical and exercise problems. This book is aimed at senior undergraduate and graduate students in electrical, instrumentation, electronics, chemical, control engineering and other allied branches of engineering. Features Covers both linear and non-linear system theory Explores state feedback control and state estimator concepts Discusses non-linear systems and phase plane analysis Includes non-linear system stability and bifurcation behaviour Elaborates optimal control and estimation
Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R provides a practical guide to emerging empirical techniques allowing practitioners to diagnose whether highly fluctuating and random appearing data are most likely driven by random or deterministic dynamic forces. It joins the chorus of voices recommending 'getting to know your data' as an essential preliminary evidentiary step in modelling. Time series are often highly fluctuating with a random appearance. Observed volatility is commonly attributed to exogenous random shocks to stable real-world systems. However, breakthroughs in nonlinear dynamics raise another possibility: highly complex dynamics can emerge endogenously from astoundingly parsimonious deterministic nonlinear models. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) is a collection of empirical tools designed to aid practitioners detect whether stochastic or deterministic dynamics most likely drive observed complexity. Practitioners become 'data detectives' accumulating hard empirical evidence supporting their modelling approach. This book is targeted to professionals and graduate students in engineering and the biophysical and social sciences. Its major objectives are to help non-mathematicians — with limited knowledge of nonlinear dynamics — to become operational in NLTS; and in this way to pave the way for NLTS to be adopted in the conventional empirical toolbox and core coursework of the targeted disciplines. Consistent with modern trends in university instruction, the book makes readers active learners with hands-on computer experiments in R code directing them through NLTS methods and helping them understand the underlying logic (please see www.marco.bittelli.com). The computer code is explained in detail so that readers can adjust it for use in their own work. The book also provides readers with an explicit framework — condensed from sound empirical practices recommended in the literature — that details a step-by-step procedure for applying NLTS in real-world data diagnostics.