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This book reconsiders the role of the Phillips curve in macroeconomic analysis in the first twenty years following the famous work by A. W. H. Phillips, after whom it is named. It argues that the story conventionally told is entirely misleading. In that story, Phillips made a great breakthrough but his work led to a view that inflationary policy could be used systematically to maintain low unemployment, and that it was only after the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps about a decade after Phillips' that this view was rejected. On the contrary, a detailed analysis of the literature of the times shows that the idea of a negative relation between wage change and unemployment - supposedly Phillips' discovery - was commonplace in the 1950s, as were the arguments attributed to Friedman and Phelps by the conventional story. And, perhaps most importantly, there is scarcely any sign of the idea of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff promoting inflationary policy, either in the theoretical literature or in actual policymaking. The book demonstrates and identifies a number of main strands of the actual thinking of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s on the question of the determination of inflation and its relation to other variables. The result is not only a rejection of the Phillips curve story as it has been told, and a reassessment of the understanding of the economists of those years of macroeconomics, but also the construction of an alternative, and historically more authentic account, of the economic theory of those times. A notable outcome is that the economic theory of the time was not nearly so naïve as it has been portrayed.
This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap. When income falls, consumption falls, and savings rise, as people rebuild their past wealth. Households will not spend more until they fully recover what they lost. The revised Phillips Curve explains that current inflation depends on the cumulative difference between current income and past income. This new theory is tested and validated by data for US since 1960 to date and for 35 OECD countries from 1990 to date. A number of policy implications are derived from these results. The book calls for an optimal policy mix between monetary policy and fiscal policy; it also discusses the coronavirus crisis as an extreme case of defensive expectations.
The London School of Economics (LSE) has been and continues to be one of the most important global centres for economics. With six chapters on themes in LSE economics and 29 chapters on the lives and work of LSE economists, this volume shows how economics became established at the School, how it produced some of the world’s best-known economists, including Lionel Robbins and Bill Phillips, plus Nobel Prize winners, such as Friedrich Hayek, John Hicks and Christopher Pissarides, and how it remains a global force for the very best in teaching and research in economics. With original contributions from a stellar cast, this volume provides economists – especially those interested in macroeconomics and the history of economic thought – with the first in-depth analysis of LSE economics.
The University of Chicago has been and continues to be one of the most important global centres for economics. With six chapters on themes in Chicago economics and 33 chapters on the lives and work of Chicago economists, this volume shows how economics became established at the University, how it produced some of the world’s best-known economists, including Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and Robert Lucas, and how it remains a global force for the very best in teaching and research in economics. With original contributions from a stellar cast, this volume provides economists – especially those interested in macroeconomics and the history of economic thought – with an in-depth analysis of Chicago economics.
Virtually all of contemporary macroeconomics is underpinned by a Phillips curve of one variety or another; yet most of this literature displays a curious neglect of the theoretical dynamic stabilisation perspective provided by A. W. H. Phillips. This 2000 volume collected for the first time the major work of one of the great economists, integrating Phillips's empirical work with his theoretical contribution. In addition to twelve substantive chapters, twenty-nine economists including Lawrence Klein, James Meade, Thomas Sargent, Peter Phillips, David Hendry, William Baumol, Richard Lipsey and Geoffrey Harcourt highlight and interpret Phillips's ongoing influence. This volume also contains six of Phillips's previously unpublished essays, four of which were thought to have been lost. The fifth such essay (Phillips's second empirical Phillips curve) was previously an informal working paper of which few copies circulated, and the sixth essay is a forerunner of the Lucas Critique written by Phillips shortly before his death.
Victor Claar and Robin Klay introduce students to the basic principles of economics and then evaluate the principles and issues as seen from a Christian perspective. This textbook places the economic life in the context of Christian discipleship and stewardship. This text is for use in any course needing a survey of the principles of economics.
The story of my life reflects the sea changes in China and the rest of the world in almost a century. The main theme of the story is how to live a meaningful life. There are many things that I have no power to influence, but there are even more that I can decide and do. What is the goal in my life? How can I achieve these goals? What role should I play in changing circumstances? What contributions can I make to my country of birth, my country of choice, the family, the community and the world? What is left for me to do? The searches for answers to all of these questions and the experiences should be of interest to the younger generation who have to satisfy themselves with answering similar questions as well as to those who must reflect on their own journeys in life.