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New Zealand’s sound management of the COVID-19 crisis has been effective in bringing infection rates quickly under control. Decisive fiscal and monetary policy responses have been instrumental in cushioning the economic impact. Although economic activity was hit hard initially, it has recovered faster than expected. That said, the recovery has been uneven, with some sectors and workers disproportionately affected.
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Border closures and other pandemic containment measures have kept Vanuatu free from COVID-19. However, they have dealt a heavy blow to economic activity as tourism has come to a virtual halt. On top of the pandemic, Tropical Cyclone Harold and a volcanic eruption in Tanna Island caused extensive economic damage in 2020. In the context of a continued loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) in the Pacific, Vanuatu also lost a key CBR at end-June 2021. Air Vanuatu, one of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is in the process of being restructured.
Strong health and economic policies allowed for quick economic recovery from initial COVID-19-related lockdowns in 2020. Renewed outbreaks and lockdowns have created setbacks since mid-2021, with disproportionate impacts on some regions, sectors, and workers. Accommodative macroeconomic policies have been instrumental in cushioning the economic impact.
Swift implementation of containment measures, limited spillovers from tourism, and COVID-related fiscal spending financed by buoyant fishing revenues and donor grants have allowed Tuvalu—a fragile Pacific micro-state—avoid a recession in 2020. The economy is expected to expand by 2.5 percent in 2021, supported by fiscal expenditures and resumption of infrastructure projects. But significant challenges remain: Tuvalu is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, its economy is dominated by the public sector, and its revenue base is narrow. Uncertainty around donor commitments complicates fiscal planning.
The UK’s rapid vaccination campaign enabled it to start to reopen the economy in the Spring of 2021. With highly accommodative policies, the recovery has been faster than expected. However, capacity constraints and rising price pressures have emerged while new Covid-19 variants have raised new uncertainties. The government has allowed all initial pandemic support programs to sunset but has loosened near-term fiscal policy while specifying a back-loaded medium-term consolidation plan. With continued above-target inflation readings, the BoE made a first move to raise the policy rate in December. Macroprudential policies are returning to more standard risk settings. The near-term growth outlook remains strong, but so too are price pressures, while the financial cycle remains ahead of the economic cycle. The pandemic and Brexit have magnified structural challenges. Real GDP would remain below its pre-pandemic trend by about 2–21⁄4 percent in the medium term. Risks are considerable in the period ahead, centering on new Covid-19 waves and spillovers from tensions in Eastern Europe.
Fiji has been among the hardest hit by the pandemic—with infection rates at one point among the highest in the world. Despite swift action by the government to close borders, protect the population, and mitigate the worst economic effects, the economic contraction was the worst in Fiji’s history. The crisis has come at a heavy social cost, including large-scale layoffs, surging unemployment, and high non-performing loans. Multilateral and bilateral support has been critical in helping Fiji weather the worst of the crisis and has facilitated a strong government response—including rapid acceleration of the government vaccination program underpinning Fiji’s reopening to international tourism.
The economy is recovering after a major, pandemic-induced economic downturn. The authorities have deployed a comprehensive set of policy responses that have helped to mitigate the socioeconomic impact and maintain financial stability. The economic recovery slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Vaccination has started and is poised to accelerate from midyear.
Sultan Haitham ascended to the throne in January 2020 and has committed to implementing strong fiscal and structural reforms to address longstanding vulnerabilities. In addition to persistent fiscal deficits arising from incomplete adjustment to lower oil prices since 2015, Oman faced twin shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices in 2020 that amplified fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The authorities moved rapidly to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections and provided broad-based policy measures to limit its impact on the economy. In addition, frontloaded fiscal consolidation has been implemented in the 2021 budget as part of the authorities’ Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP) which aims to eliminate the fiscal deficit over the medium term. Banks have high capital buffers and liquidity, but credit risk is a concern going forward. Structural reforms have been accelerated under Oman Vision 2040 to boost non-oil private sector growth and facilitate job creation.
The Chilean economy has been hit by the pandemic while recovering from the social unrest in late 2019, requiring substantial adjustment of economic policies and the appropriate use of existing policy buffers. Following a sharp decline in mid-2020, economic activity started recovering in 2020H2 in the wake of ample policy stimulus. Inflation remains near the policy target, with inflation expectations anchored, and the current account balance has improved amid a sharp drop in imports and relatively resilient exports. Fiscal and monetary policies remain guided by the structural fiscal balance rule and the inflation-targeting framework, respectively. Beyond the pandemic-related risks, there is uncertainty stemming from a series of elections and the outcome of a New Constitution process—scheduled to finish in mid-2022—which are expected to shape the public discourse and influence the policy agenda.