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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Whoever said learning about futures markets had to be boring? Futures markets are a mystery. Fortunes are made and lost in these markets, yet most people know little about how they work. In Back to the Futures, agricultural economist Scott Irwin explains why it’s essential to understand futures markets, whether you’re talking about grain, cattle, or the largest market of them all—crude oil. These massive markets lie at the heart of our economy, affecting us all. Irwin’s engaging storytelling style brings the madcap world of futures trading to life, drawing you in by sharing his wild, life-threatening adventures with motorcycles, snowmobiles, race cars, farm equipment, and renegade cows while growing up on an Iowa farm. Back to the Futures will keep you riveted as he explains how to reduce risk in today’s intense arena of commodity trading. This unique book brings in other experts as well, such as Terry Duffy, CEO of the CME Group (the largest commodity trading exchange in the world), and Leo Melamed, the man who revolutionized the market with electronic trading. Together, these experts combine their knowledge and experiences to provide clarity on the following topics: Why future markets are crucial for farmers and consumers. The critical role future markets play in our financial system. The role speculators play in making these markets work. And much more. Commodity futures trading has become a vital part of doing business in America. So, get ready to learn something new–and don’t be surprised if you find yourself highly entertained along the journey!
In recent years there have been increasing concerns about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Consumer perceptions vary between countries, but are probably most pronounced in Europe and least in North America. These have had a profound and controversial effect on the development of markets for GM products.This book presents a compilation of studies of consumer acceptance of GM foods. These studies utilized different methods and evidence including: price and expenditure data; experimental methods; "willingness to pay"; consumer attitudes; and economic consequences.
After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.
This book discusses the issues of integration within food and fibre supply chains and the challenges in managing price risk. The problems of integration and price risk are interwoven in agricultural supply chains with production and supply risk as well as hoarding. However, without supply chain integration through commercial trade markets there can be no forward market upon which forward transactions and the management of price risk can be based. Without a forward market that can reduce opportunistic behaviour, there is likely to be little security of supply, particularly under high production risk and price uncertainty. Whilst price risk management is possible under certain circumstances, there are many factors that can prevent the development of forward markets or cause them to collapse, thus undermining the ability to manage price risk within acceptable risk and return parameters. Market positions therefore need to be valued and often settled daily due to the risk of contract default. In addition, the issue of currency risk and its management applies to international market positions and transactional exposures. The book analyses a range of price risk management strategies from forward contracting through to futures and options hedging, and finally to over-the-counter products. Evaluation techniques are developed to aid decision-making. The author concludes that forward market development may be the exception rather than the norm, and that whilst favourable price risk management outcomes may be possible, they can sometimes be caused more by luck than through good management. It is shown how tactics are an important consideration in decision-making to minimize costs and losses.
Futures markets offer numerous advantages in the marketing of agricultural commodities, and in this context, the book examines the major factors and issues that determine the participation of India’s farmers in the futures markets. These include the efficiency of the futures markets in price discovery, the convergence of spot and futures prices, the dissemination of spot price information, and the socio-economic and exchange-related issues affecting farmer participation. It also examines the factors affecting the demand and supply of participation, and the access to futures trading services. The purpose is to identify different factors that can enhance or constrain farmer participation in the futures markets, which may include market characteristics, institutional features, socio-economic issues, and behavioural aspects of farmer participation. A number of organizations related to rural development, as well as farmer producer companies have sought to facilitate farmer participation in the forward/futures market through offering aggregation and other trading services, and the book also examines these efforts towards the exchange-traded derivative markets and the direct and indirect benefits that accrue. The book also studies the efficiency of futures markets in price discovery and price dissemination applying co-integration tests, and error correction and volatility models, using available data of wheat, rapeseed-mustard, cotton, guar seed, castor, cumin and coriander futures contracts traded in the largest agricultural commodity exchanges in India. Besides, case studies are used to examine and understand the institutional roles of aggregators in aggregation efforts towards the forward/futures market. This book covers several states and locations in India to enhance the representation and validity of the findings. It also examines representative farmer organizations which have obtained institutional membership in the forward or futures markets, and identifies areas of further research. In the current scenario, the book would be of immense importance and relevance to governments, commodity exchanges/markets, aggregators, many private and development organizations, as well as interested researchers and students.