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This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
This volume presents often sharply contrasting views on the future of NATO. Its contributors, mainly security specialists, cover structural reform of NATO and its relationship with the European Union; evidence or arguments in support of the Alliance taking on new tasks like peacekeeping and enlarging eastward to include countries of the former Soviet bloc; and a variety of arguments against enlargement, ranging from concerns about Russia's reaction to questions about whether the US should remain involved in Europe.
This collection is the first book-length study of NATO's bureaucracy and decision-making after the Cold War and its analytical framework of 'internationalization' draws largely on neo-institutionalist insights.
The contributors to this book set out to show that NATO's post-Cold War troubles are largely self-generated and almost exclusively "eastern". They focus in particular on the issue of what to do with the former Yugoslavia.
In this new Brookings Marshall Paper, Michael O'Hanlon argues that now is the time for Western nations to negotiate a new security architecture for neutral countries in eastern Europe to stabilize the region and reduce the risks of war with Russia. He believes NATO expansion has gone far enough. The core concept of this new security architecture would be one of permanent neutrality. The countries in question collectively make a broken-up arc, from Europe's far north to its south: Finland and Sweden; Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus; Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; and finally Cyprus plus Serbia, as well as possibly several other Balkan states. Discussion on the new framework should begin within NATO, followed by deliberation with the neutral countries themselves, and then formal negotiations with Russia. The new security architecture would require that Russia, like NATO, commit to help uphold the security of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other states in the region. Russia would have to withdraw its troops from those countries in a verifiable manner; after that, corresponding sanctions on Russia would be lifted. The neutral countries would retain their rights to participate in multilateral security operations on a scale comparable to what has been the case in the past, including even those operations that might be led by NATO. They could think of and describe themselves as Western states (or anything else, for that matter). If the European Union and they so wished in the future, they could join the EU. They would have complete sovereignty and self-determination in every sense of the word. But NATO would decide not to invite them into the alliance as members. Ideally, these nations would endorse and promote this concept themselves as a more practical way to ensure their security than the current situation or any other plausible alternative.
Defending Europe seeks to clarify the competing ambitions, the contrasting visions and the trans-Atlantic tensions related to the recent quest by Europe for autonomy in the sphere of security and defense. Scholars from both sides of the Atlantic explore the development of ESDI within NATO, the revival of the WEU and the launch of the EU's Common European Security and Defense Policy. Among the issues discussed are the Euro-American capabilities gap, concerns regarding decoupling, discrimination, and duplication, and the complications posed by NATO/EU enlargement. Two contrary conclusions debate whether ESDP is more likely to strengthen or undermine the Atlantic Alliance. This informative foray into the trans-Atlantic security and defense issues is a crucial addition to the ongoing dialogue concerning this shifting and evolving relationship.
The unexpected end of the protracted conflict has been a sobering experience for scholars. No theory had anticipated how the Cold War would be terminated, and none should also be relied upon to explicate its legacy. But instead of relying on preconceived formulas to project past developments, taking a historical perspective to explain their causes and consequences allows one to better understand trends and their long-term significance. The present book takes such perspective, focusing on the evolution of security, its substance as well as its perception, the concurrent development of alliances and other cooperative structures for security, and their effectiveness in managing conflicts. In The Legacy of the Cold War Vojtech Mastny and Zhu Liqun bring together scholars to examine the worldwide effects of the Cold War on international security. Focusing on regions where the Cold War made the most enduring impact―the Euro-Atlantic area and East Asia―historians, political scientists, and international relations scholars explore alliances and other security measures during the Cold War and how they carry over into the twenty-first century.
Since the foundation of the Atlantic Alliance after World War II, the face of world politics, and consequently of NATO, has changed dramatically. NATO after Fifty Years examines, from a wide range of perspectives, the past, present, and future of the alliance, now in the throes of its most uncertain period. The contributors to this volume bring a diversity and breadth of perspectives that will make this book an invaluable teaching tool for courses relating to U.S. defense policy, arms control and the military in politics, international organizations, war and peace, international conflict, and government and politics in Europe.