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This is the 44th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the United States Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). This report summarizes a three-phase research project undertaken by the USAF Institute for National Security Studies on behalf of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency to forecast long-range global trends affecting arms control technologies. The report projects the international political, economic, and scientific environments to the year 2015. It posits economic and technological drivers as shaping the system, including its military and political dimensions. The result will be a two-tiered system, with great danger arising from significant proliferation in the second tier and the transition zone between tiers. The report next draws conclusions from this likely future for the scope, value, and practice of arms control. Arms control will be focused less on limitation and reduction of existing weapons, although the endgame between the United States and Russia will remain a significant effort. The focus will shift to the less well-defined realm of counterproliferation, and to marginal, failing, and failed states as well as nontraditional and non-state actors. New dimensions will be added, including control efforts toward small arms, advanced conventional weapons, military space, and information operations. The report then extrapolates from this future to assess the likely arms control technology requirements in cooperative, noncooperative, intrusive, and nonintrusive regimes. The projection here is continuing requirements for each of these specialized sets of technologies, with particular emphasis on multiple-use technologies for remote arms control compliance and verification monitoring as well as for intelligence detection and collection.
This report addresses consequences of current and proposed restrictions on international contacts by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) national laboratories and explores methods of best serving national security through positive new scientific advances facilitated by international communication among scientists, through scientific contacts to further non-proliferation, and through careful protection of crucial classified information from foreign espionage. The report summarizes a symposium that examined: the role of the DOE's national laboratories in national security and the contributions by foreign laboratories and scientists, proposals for amending security policies of the weapons laboratories in regard to contact with foreign laboratories and scientists, and the risks and benefits of scientific openness in this context. Finally, the report reviews current policies and proposals designed to enhance security at the weapons laboratories, primarily those related to restrictions on foreign contacts by DOE scientists.
This book, the first in a two-volume set, is organized around the idea that national and international security and arms control studies are interdisciplinary fields of study. Together, the volumes give form and substance to these emerging fields. This first volume is concerned with broad analytical perspectives that are relevant to the security and arms control considerations of any national government. subfield to assist more in-depth analysis by researchers and Volume 1 is divided into four parts. The first identifies those characteristics of the international system that condition the use of or the threat to use force. It also explores those aspects of the system that prompt the need for ways to control violence and to discipline it to the national purpose. Twelve functions of national strategic policy are covered in parts two and three. A final section reviews ways that might be used to go beyond violence or threats in coping with human conflict. Through the topics selected for inclusion, the guide attempts to define the scope of security and arms control studies as a serious field of systematic inquiry. It identifies major problems, key concepts, methods, disciplinary approaches, intellectual styles, and data sources associated with the principal subfields of the discipline. It critically reviews and evaluates the most important literature associated with each subfield to assist more in-depth analysis by researchers and policymakers.
Balancing the requirements of national security and economic competitiveness
Arms control is a vital and highly controversial national security issue. Among other factors, technological considerations seriously complicate the development and negotiation of arms control proposals. The monograph examines the interaction between arms control and technology, with emphasis on the research and development function. The author argues that it usually is not feasible to reach arms control agreements which place controls on research and development activities, and that it is imprudent to place unilateral controls on these activities. In suggesting the need for closer integration of arms control and security policies, he calls for an increased exchange of information between the defense research and development community and arms control specialists. This monograph makes a significant contribution to the dialogue on arms control in general and in particular to questions of its relationship to technology, especially research and development.