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The Department's work to address the affordability gap around the equipment budget and costs appears to have had a positive effect. However, there remain risks to affordability, most significantly around the half of the budget relating to equipment support costs which were not subjected these to the same level of detailed scrutiny as the procurement costs. The Department also does not understand the implications of its £1.2 billion underspend on the Equipment Plan in 2012-13. With the exception of the Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers, there have been no significant cost increases and only minimal in-year delays. In the last year, there was a net increase in costs of £708 million in respect of the 11 projects in the review. The main contribution to this was a £754 million increase in the cost of carriers. Three of the projects the report examined experienced delays during the year, together amounting to 17 months. A third of projects this year reported delays compared to over half of the projects in last year's report. However, the NAO is unable to report on timings for two of the 11 projects - Lightning II and Specialist Vehicles -because the Department has not yet given final approval. This report also includes an examination of the MOD's Complex Weapons Programme, which aims to achieve net financial benefits of £1.2 billion over ten years. Noting that these benefits have already been 'banked', if there are delays or cancellations some of these benefits may be lost
The MOD's ten-year Equipment Plan sets out its forecast expenditure plans to deliver and support the equipment the Armed Forces require to meet the objectives set out in the National Security Strategy over the ten years from 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2022 and covers a budget of £159 billion. Since the beginning of 2011 the Department has substantially revised the way it compiles and manages the Equipment Plan. It has taken difficult decisions to address what was estimated to be a £74 billion gap between the Department's forecast funding and cost of the defence programme as a whole and to try to bring the Equipment Plan itself into balance. These include cutting unaffordable expenditure and revising the way it compiles and manages the Equipment Plan to include greater contingency to better manage cost variability. The Equipment Plan is based on forecasts of costs and funding. The NAO has therefore constructed an affordability assessment model that breaks the Department's assertions down into assumptions covering costs and funding against which the realism of the Department's approach can be tested. This is the first year the NAO has undertaken this engagement and it was aware from the beginning of issues, which would limit the confidence that could be taken from the Department's Statement to Parliament on the cost and affordability of the Equipment Plan. In future years, as the Department's approach to producing the Equipment Plan matures, the NAO intends to extend the scope of its work
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The analysis in this report is based on an examination of a sample of 16 of the largest defence projects. This year the NAO used the same sample of projects for this report as for the Equipment Plan 2013 to 2023 (HC 816 ISBN 9780102987591). The sample comprises 11 projects for which the Department has decided to invest. It confirms the findings of that report that the Department's work to address the affordability gap around the equipment budget and costs appears to have had a positive effect. However, there remain risks to affordability, most significantly around the half of the budget relating to equipment support costs which were not subjected these to the same level of detailed scrutiny as the procurement costs
The analysis in this report is based on an examination of a sample of 16 of the largest defence projects. This year the NAO used the same sample of projects for this report as for the Equipment Plan 2013 to 2023 (HC 816 ISBN 9780102987591). The sample comprises 11 projects for which the Department has decided to invest. It confirms the findings of that report that the Department's work to address the affordability gap around the equipment budget and costs appears to have had a positive effect. However, there remain risks to affordability, most significantly around the half of the budget relating to equipment support costs which were not subjected these to the same level of detailed scrutiny as the procurement costs