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Mortality Patterns in National Populations: With Special Reference to Recorded Causes of Death aims to interpret the account left by millions of death certificates that have been recorded in 43 nations. The book discusses a ""model"" of the cause structure of mortality at various levels of mortality from all causes combined; the effect of various causes on the chances of death and longevity; and the contribution of economic factors to declines in mortality during the 20th century. The text also describes the causes of death and age patterns of mortality; the causes of death responsible for variation in sex mortality differentials; and the demographic and social consequences of various causes of death in the United States. Demographers and ecologists will find the book invaluable.
In recent years there have been alarming reports of rapid decreases in life expectancy in the New Independent States (former members of the Soviet Union). To help assess priorities for health policy, the Committee on Population organized two workshops--the first on adult mortality and disability, the second on adult health priorities and policies. Participants included demographers, epidemiologists, public health specialists, economists, and policymakers from the NIS countries, the United States, and Western Europe. This volume consists of selected papers presented at the workshops. They assess the reliability of data on mortality, morbidity, and disability; analyze regional patterns and trends in mortality rates and causes of death; review evidence about major determinants of adult mortality; and discuss implications for health policy.
Monitoring progress toward global health and development goals requires a basic understanding of levels, patterns, and trends in mortality. National health, population, and social services planning also depend on reliably measuring mortality rates. Yet current practice in estimating mortality levels in populations does not adequately capture the impact of recent public health crises, including the AIDS epidemic, war, and natural disasters. Mortality Estimation for National Populations provides a comprehensive methodological reassessment on how mortality is measured, resulting in new, unbiased, and comparable estimates of age-specific mortality rates, life expectancy by age, and other health indicators for 187 national populations. A novel feature of this work is the estimation of annual mortality rates from 1970 to 2011, providing important perspectives on the pace of mortality change in countries. To provide better age- and sex-specific measurements for all-cause mortality, this book thoroughly updates formal demographic methods including summary birth history, sibling survival, and death distribution methods. Innovative statistical models such as spatial-temporal and Gaussian process regressions are used as data synthesizing tools. New demographic models to estimate mortality for neonatal age groups and new model life tables are developed and applied. Validation studies demonstrate that these new methods provide estimates with higher predictive validity than those based on conventional methods. Detailed case studies of the methods' application to Ethiopia, India, and Nicaragua are included. Christopher J.L. Murray is professor of global health and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Alan D. Lopez is head of the School of Population Health at the University of Queensland, Australia. Haidong Wang is assistant professor of global health at IHME.
Current data and trends in morbidity and mortality for the sub-Saharan Region as presented in this new edition reflect the heavy toll that HIV/AIDS has had on health indicators, leading to either a stalling or reversal of the gains made, not just for communicable disorders, but for cancers, as well as mental and neurological disorders.
Zopf provides a comprehensive account of the biological components of mortality, its various forms and causes, and its many differentials. The study considers mortality among a range of populations, according to differentials such as age, gender, race, ethnic origin, socioeconomic and marital status, and urban or non-urban residence. It also traces changes in the impact of degenerative afflictions, infectious and parasitic diseases, and environmental factors. The result is a current and comprehensive treatment of changes in mortality and its causes in the United States. The many graphs and tables present succinct and clear evidence of current mortality trends, and the extensive bibliography adds to the usefulness of this work as a research tool. The text begins with an introductory overview of the components of mortality and the methods of measuring it. The following chapter analyzes mortality within the general population according to specific differentials. The study then treats patterns, trends, and causes of infant mortality. Zopf next considers the prevalence of several causes of death among different demographic groups, and he examines life expectancy for particular populations. A concluding chapter synthesizes the wealth of information contained within this work. Demographers, sociologists, and health professionals will find this volume a valuable addition to their libraries.
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Almost 25 years have passed since the Demography of Aging (1994) was published by the National Research Council. Future Directions for the Demography of Aging is, in many ways, the successor to that original volume. The Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to produce an authoritative guide to new directions in demography of aging. The papers published in this report were originally presented and discussed at a public workshop held in Washington, D.C., August 17-18, 2017. The workshop discussion made evident that major new advances had been made in the last two decades, but also that new trends and research directions have emerged that call for innovative conceptual, design, and measurement approaches. The report reviews these recent trends and also discusses future directions for research on a range of topics that are central to current research in the demography of aging. Looking back over the past two decades of demography of aging research shows remarkable advances in our understanding of the health and well-being of the older population. Equally exciting is that this report sets the stage for the next two decades of innovative researchâ€"a period of rapid growth in the older American population.