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Strategic health planning, the cornerstone of initiatives designed to achieve health improvement goals around the world, requires an understanding of the comparative burden of diseases and injuries, their corresponding risk factors and the likely effects of invervention options. The Global Burden of Disease framework, originally published in 1990, has been widely adopted as the preferred method for health accounting and has become the standard to guide the setting of health research priorities. This publication sets out an updated assessment of the situation, with an analysis of trends observed since 1990 and a chapter on the sensitivity of GBD estimates to various sources of uncertainty in methods and data.
In recent years there have been alarming reports of rapid decreases in life expectancy in the New Independent States (former members of the Soviet Union). To help assess priorities for health policy, the Committee on Population organized two workshopsâ€"the first on adult mortality and disability, the second on adult health priorities and policies. Participants included demographers, epidemiologists, public health specialists, economists, and policymakers from the NIS countries, the United States, and Western Europe. This volume consists of selected papers presented at the workshops. They assess the reliability of data on mortality, morbidity, and disability; analyze regional patterns and trends in mortality rates and causes of death; review evidence about major determinants of adult mortality; and discuss implications for health policy.
Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are a persistent phenomenon, but variations from culture to culture pose fascinating questions. This book investigates whether sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors play a role as important for seasonal mortality as they do for mortality in general. Using modern statistical methods, the book shows, for example, that in the United States the fluctuations between winter and summer mortality are smaller the more years someone has spent in school.
Almost 25 years have passed since the Demography of Aging (1994) was published by the National Research Council. Future Directions for the Demography of Aging is, in many ways, the successor to that original volume. The Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to produce an authoritative guide to new directions in demography of aging. The papers published in this report were originally presented and discussed at a public workshop held in Washington, D.C., August 17-18, 2017. The workshop discussion made evident that major new advances had been made in the last two decades, but also that new trends and research directions have emerged that call for innovative conceptual, design, and measurement approaches. The report reviews these recent trends and also discusses future directions for research on a range of topics that are central to current research in the demography of aging. Looking back over the past two decades of demography of aging research shows remarkable advances in our understanding of the health and well-being of the older population. Equally exciting is that this report sets the stage for the next two decades of innovative researchâ€"a period of rapid growth in the older American population.
Current data and trends in morbidity and mortality for the sub-Saharan Region as presented in this new edition reflect the heavy toll that HIV/AIDS has had on health indicators, leading to either a stalling or reversal of the gains made, not just for communicable disorders, but for cancers, as well as mental and neurological disorders.
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
In their later years, Americans of different racial and ethnic backgrounds are not in equally good-or equally poor-health. There is wide variation, but on average older Whites are healthier than older Blacks and tend to outlive them. But Whites tend to be in poorer health than Hispanics and Asian Americans. This volume documents the differentials and considers possible explanations. Selection processes play a role: selective migration, for instance, or selective survival to advanced ages. Health differentials originate early in life, possibly even before birth, and are affected by events and experiences throughout the life course. Differences in socioeconomic status, risk behavior, social relations, and health care all play a role. Separate chapters consider the contribution of such factors and the biopsychosocial mechanisms that link them to health. This volume provides the empirical evidence for the research agenda provided in the separate report of the Panel on Race, Ethnicity, and Health in Later Life.
Socio-economic policy planning and monitoring requires accurate data on births, deaths and population, in order to plan effectively for provision of health, education, employment and social security services. This publication contains detailed information on the compilation of demographic data using a range of complementary methods which can be combined to suit national conditions. Topics covered include: planning collection of fertility and mortality data; fieldwork, data processing and archiving; evaluation, estimation and dissemination; civil registration records, censuses and surveys as data sources.