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On September 24, 1996, President Clinton signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty at the United Nations Headquarters. Over the next five months, 141 nations, including the four other nuclear weapon statesâ€"Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdomâ€"added their signatures to this total ban on nuclear explosions. To help achieve verification of compliance with its provisions, the treaty specifies an extensive International Monitoring System of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic, and radionuclide sensors. This volume identifies specific research activities that will be needed if the United States is to effectively monitor compliance with the treaty provisions.
Monitoring Underground Nuclear Explosions focuses on the checking of underground nuclear explosions, including the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTB), seismological stations, earthquake-source models, and seismicity. The publication first elaborates on test-ban negotiations, nuclear explosions, seismological background, and explosions and earthquakes as seismic sources. Concerns cover comparison between explosion-source and earthquake-source models, theoretical calculation of seismic waves, earth structure, seismicity, nuclear test activities, bomb designs, and disarmament treaties. The manuscript then tackles seismological stations, detection, event definition and location, depth estimation, and identification. Topics include multistation discriminants, statistical aspects, long-period and short-period signals, near distances, location by a network of stations, international data exchange, station detection capabilities, and station networks. The book examines the monitoring of a comprehensive test-ban treaty, nonseismological identification, evasion, peaceful nuclear explosions, and yield estimation. The text is a dependable reference for researchers interested in the monitoring of underground nuclear explosions.
With the signing in 1996 of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, interest has grown in forensic seismology: the application of seismology to nuclear test ban verification. This book, based on over 50 years of experience in forensic seismology research, charts the development of methods of seismic data analysis. Topics covered include: the estimation of seismic magnitudes, travel-time tables and epicentres; seismic signal processing; and the use of seismometer arrays. Fully illustrated with seismograms from explosions and earthquakes, the book demonstrates methods and problems of visual analysis. Each chapter provides exercises to help the reader familiarise themselves with practical issues in the field of forensic seismology, and figures and solutions to exercises are also available online. The book is a key reference work for academic researchers and specialists in the area of forensic seismology and Earth structure, and will also be valuable to postgraduates in seismology and solid earth geophysics.
How can countries verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and detect and deter violations? It is in their interest to increase their verification readiness because the assessment of compliance with the treaty rests with states parties to the CTBT. The treaty provides countries with two verification elements: an international system of monitoring stations, and an on-site inspection regime. The monitoring system can detect nuclear explosions underground, in the atmosphere and under water. This book provides incentives to nations around the world on how they can organize their efforts to verify compliance with the CTBT and how they can collaborate with other countries, perhaps on a regional basis, to monitor areas of concern. Such focused efforts can improve their detection and deterrence capabilities through precision monitoring. The book addresses the CTBT verification from the perspective of countries. It shows how they can create the essential tools for the assessment of the large amounts of data available from the verification regime and other sources, including observations from satellites and thousands of stations outside of the treaty regime. Countries can also use current scientific and technological developments to assist them in verifying compliance with the treaty. The book offers political and scientific analysis on the evolution of the treaty over the years. The book is intended for professionals in the political, diplomatic, scientific and military fields who deal with international security, non-proliferation and arms control. It is also intended for non-governmental organizations and journalists seeking a better understanding of the nuclear test ban issue and how states can verify compliance with the treaty.
The contributors to this book describe, discuss, and evaluate the normative reframing brought about by the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (the Ban Treaty), taking you on a journey through its genesis and negotiation history to the shape of the emerging global nuclear order. Adopted by the United Nations on 7 July 2017, the Ban Treaty came into effect on 22 January 2021. For advocates and supporters, weapons that were always immoral are now also illegal. To critics, it represents a profound threat to the stability of the existing global nuclear order with the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty as the normative anchor. As the most significant leap in nuclear disarmament in fifty years and a rare case study of successful state-civil society partnership in multilateral diplomacy, the Ban Treaty challenges the established order. The book’s contributors are leading experts on the Ban Treaty, including senior scholars, policymakers and civil society activists. A vital guide to the Ban Treaty for students of nuclear disarmament, arms control and diplomacy as well as for policymakers in those fields.
"This is one of the most important books to come from a university press within the last year . . . Seaberg, Nobel Prize laureate, was chairman of the old Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) when the treaty was negotiated. With a decent time interval now past, he has opened the detailed diary he kept during his AEC tenure. Together with auxiliary materials, including interviews with other participants, he has now written an incisive account of events leading up to the treaty and of the negotiations and their successful conclusion."--Christian Science Monitor "Drawn from [Seaberg's] personal journal, this book focuses on Kennedy's quest for a comprehensive test ban and on why, 'despite some near misses, this glittering prize, which carried with it the opportunity to arrest the viciously spiralling arms race, eluded our grasp.' More than a memoir, the book draws upon documents and observations of other key participants .. . It also provides insights into Kennedy and his Administration as well as giving us the substance of the nuclear test ban debate. Mr. Seaberg is refreshingly fair in his assessment of the merits and failures of the limited treaty that Kennedy achieved."--New York Times "A detailed and absorbing history of what seems, in retrospect, the innocent and halcyon days of nuclear arms control. Seaberg rightly lays claim to having been an 'insider' in the test ban negotiations, and his first-person account benefits from close friendship with other Kennedy insiders . . . As might be expected, the book is most interesting for the light it throws upon the thoughts and actions of Kennedy; a surprise is its insight, reflected through the eyes of Kennedy and Harriman, into the personality of Khrushchev. . . Implicit in Seaborg's portrait of Khrushchev is a view which perhaps had some currency in the Kennedy administration but more recently seems to have fallen out of vogue--that it is possible to deal with the Russians."--Washington Post
At the request of Congress, this report presents findings and recommendations related to governance of the U.S. government's monitoring, detection, and verification (MDV) enterprise and offers findings and recommendations related to technical MDV capabilities and research, development, test, and evaluation efforts, focused in particular on the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear test explosions, and arms control.
This open access book examines key aspects of international cooperation to enhance nuclear safety, security, safeguards, and nonproliferation, thereby assisting in development and maintenance of the verification regime and fostering progress toward a nuclear weapon-free world. Current challenges are discussed and attempts made to identify possible solutions and future improvements, considering scientific developments that have the potential to increase the effectiveness of implementation of international regimes, particularly in critical areas, technology foresight, and the ongoing evaluation of current capabilities.
An international treaty banning the testing of any nuclear device in any environment - a comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT) - has been on the political agenda for nearly 40 years. Objections to a CTBT have been political, technical, or a combination of both. However, the possibilities seem better after the end of the Cold War. In the prevailing, cooperative disarmament climate a CTBT appears likely to be approved by most countries in 1996. Hence the great current interest in monitoring technologies and capabilities. Such issues are comprehensively addressed here, a preamble being devoted to the political developments and setbacks over the past 40 years. Since seismic means are considered the dominant monitoring element, they are explored in detail. Contributions cover network deployments, advanced signal processing, wave propagation in heterogeneous media, and seismic source representations, and a variety of techniques for source classification (including neural networks). Complementary monitoring techniques, such as hydroacoustics, radionuclides and infrasound, are also summarised. The IAEA operation for monitoring compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty is also presented. The book also includes eyewitness accounts of the Soviet 50 Mt megabomb development and test, as well as the efforts made by the state to monitor the nuclear test programmes of the western powers. Includes some 33 articles written by distinguished scientists active in CTBT monitoring research for decades.
Nations and international organizations are increasingly using sanctions as a means to achieve their foreign policy aims. However, sanctions are ineffective if they are executed without a clear strategy responsive to the nature and changing behavior of the target. In The Art of Sanctions, Richard Nephew offers a much-needed practical framework for planning and applying sanctions that focuses not just on the initial sanctions strategy but also, crucially, on how to calibrate along the way and how to decide when sanctions have achieved maximum effectiveness. Nephew—a leader in the design and implementation of sanctions on Iran—develops guidelines for interpreting targets’ responses to sanctions based on two critical factors: pain and resolve. The efficacy of sanctions lies in the application of pain against a target, but targets may have significant resolve to resist, tolerate, or overcome this pain. Understanding the interplay of pain and resolve is central to using sanctions both successfully and humanely. With attention to these two key variables, and to how they change over the course of a sanctions regime, policy makers can pinpoint when diplomatic intervention is likely to succeed or when escalation is necessary. Focusing on lessons learned from sanctions on both Iran and Iraq, Nephew provides policymakers with practical guidance on how to measure and respond to pain and resolve in the service of strong and successful sanctions regimes.