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To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 123 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in September 2021. Key findings: Input prices, especially fertilizer, have soared compared to a year ago due to a combination of higher international prices, depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat, and higher freight and domestic transport costs. Faced with price increases of 76 percent on average for compound fertilizer and 132 percent for urea (compared to a year ago), farmers reduced their purchases by 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. If the decline in fertilizer sales is extended to all of Myanmar, estimated monsoon crop production may fall by 8 percent to 12 percent, equivalent to between $670 million and $1 billion at 2017 prices. Recommendations: The post-monsoon cropping season will be an important opportunity to partially compensate for lower monsoon season production. There is no indication that international fertilizer prices will fall significantly before planting time, however. A combination of temporary fertilizer subsidies and expanded seasonal credit will likely be necessary to encourage farmers to increase crop production.
To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.
A phone survey was conducted in July 2023 to understand the effects of political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs) that are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, which is the 11th in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.
A phone survey was conducted in January 2022 to understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs), crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the eighth in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.
This report shares the results of a joint analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on the agrifood system in Myanmar based on an assessment conducted from August to September 2021. The report analyses the effects of a range of natural and human-induced shocks on the agrifood system in Myanmar and shares the results of a field assessment in which 2 708 household interviews were conducted. The assessment covered 147 townships in nine states and regions: Mon, Chin, Kachin, Kayin, Kayah, Rakhine, Sagaing, Shan and Yangon; data were collected between August and September 2021, complemented by a survey of food traders and input retailers.
A phone survey was conducted in January 2023 to understand the effects of COVID‑19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs). MSPs are crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the tenth in a series of phone surveys, and trends from earlier surveys.
Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.
Myanmar’s agrifood system has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of multiple crises—COVID 19, the military coup, economic mismanagement, global price instability, and widespread conflict—with respect to production and exports. Household welfare has not been resilient, however. High rates of inflation, especially food price inflation, have resulted in dietary degradation across all house hold groups, especially those dependent on casual wage labor. Among household members, young children experience the highest rates of inadequate dietary quality. Expanded social protection to improve access to better-quality diets for vulnerable households and individuals is therefore needed. Beyond the current political crisis, increased public and private investment in a more efficient and dynamic agrifood system should be a high priority. This will help drive down poverty rates and ensure access to healthy diets in the near term, while laying the foundation for sustained growth and structural transformation of the economy.
National poverty rates in Myanmar have risen dramatically due to economic disruption following the February 1, 2021 military take-over of government. Depending on assumptions about the scale of the economic impacts, household poverty rates are predicted to have risen to between 40 and 50 percent in 2021, compared to 32 percent in 2015 and just under 25 percent in 2017. Between 849,000 and 1.87 million new households are thus living in poverty in 2021 in addition to the estimated 2.86 million households already in poverty in 2015. The poverty impacts of these disruptions are significant not only in the sharp increases in the total number of households in poverty, but also in the substantial deepening of poverty for households that were already poor. By the end of the current financial year, the average poverty gap (expenditure shortfall) is predicted to have increased from 26 percent in 2015 to between 34 and 40 percent for individuals living in poor households.
This new edition of Myanmar: Politics, Economy and Society provides a sophisticated yet accessible overview of the key political, economic and social challenges facing contemporary Myanmar and explains the complex historical and ethnic dynamics that have shaped the country. Thoroughly revised, the book analyses the context and tragic consequences of the military coup in February 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. With clear and incisive contributions from the world’s leading Myanmar scholars, this book assesses the policies and political reforms that have provoked contestation in Myanmar’s recent history and driven both economic and social change. In this context, questions of economic ownership and control and the distribution of natural resources are shown to be deeply informed by long-standing fractures among ethnic and civil-military relations. The chapters analyse the key issues that constrain or expedite societal development in Myanmar and place recent events of national and international significance in the context of its complex history and social relations. The book provides detailed analysis of the coup, which overturned a decade of political and economic reforms and threw the country into chaos. It explains the drivers for the coup, how it has impacted on the country and the future prospects for accountability and justice. Filling a gap in the market, this research textbook and primer will be of interest to upper undergraduates, postgraduates and scholars of Southeast Asian politics, economics and society and to journalists and professionals working within governments, companies and other organisations.