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This paper provides a decomposition of GDP and its deflator into demand and supply driven components for 12 Asian countries, the US and Europe, following the forecast error-based methodology of Shapiro (2022). We extend that methodology by (1) considering a wide range of statistical forecasting models, using the optimal model for each country and (2) provide a measure idiosyncratic demand and supply movements. The latter provides, for example, a distinction between aggregate demand driven inflation and, inflation driven by large shocks in only a small number of sectors. We find that lockdowns in 2020 are explained by a mix of demand and supply shocks in Asia, but that idiosyncratic demand shocks played a significant role in some countries. Supply factors played an important role in the post-COVID recovery, primarily in 2021, with demand factors becoming more important in 2022. The mix of shocks during the sharp increase in inflation in 2021-22 differs by country, with large and advanced economies generally experiencing more supply shocks (China, Australia, Korea), while emerging markets saw significant demand pressures pushing up prices (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand). We illustrate the usefulness of the industry level shocks in two applications. Firstly, we consider whether industry supply shocks have created demand-like movements in aggregate prices and quantities, so-called Keynesian supply shocks. We find evidence for this mechanism in a minority of countries in our Asia sample, as well for Europe and the USA, but that these results are driven by the COVID-19 event. Secondly, we use the granularity of the industry shocks to construct country-level GDP shocks, driven by idiosyncratic movements at the industry level, to study cross country growth spillovers for the three large economic units in our sample: China, Europe and the US.
Australia’s post-pandemic recovery remained strong. However, growth is weakening on the heels of tighter macroeconomic policies and financial conditions. While inflation has peaked, it remains persistently high. Labor market shows signs of easing, and the positive output gap is narrowing. Increased cost of living started to weigh on household consumption. The economy remains resilient in the near term but confronts a secular productivity slowdown. Financial stability risks remain contained although pockets of vulnerability exist and risks of spillovers from global financial conditions have increased since the last Article IV.
The Trade and Integration Monitor 2018 analyzes the ongoing trade recovery in the region and tracks its competitiveness in global markets, with a particular focus on the capacity for positioning itself in higher-quality, sophisticated, and technology-dense sectors. This edition is the latest in a series of reports of the Integration and Trade Sector of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) that study the evolution of the position of Latin America and the Caribbean in the global trading system, drawing on available data from INTrade, the IDB trade and integration information system.
This book contains international perspectives that unifies the themes of strategic management, decision theory, and data science. It contains thought-provoking presentations of case studies backed by adequate analysis adding significance to the discussions. Most of the decision-making models in use do take due advantage of collection and processing of relevant data using appropriate analytics oriented to provide inputs into effective decision-making. The book showcases applications in diverse fields including banking and insurance, portfolio management, inventory analysis, performance assessment of comparable economic agents, managing utilities in a health-care facility, reducing traffic snarls on highways, monitoring achievement of some of the sustainable development goals in a country or state, and similar other areas that showcase policy implications. It holds immense value for researchers as well as professionals responsible for organizational decisions.
Doing Business 2016 is the 13th publication in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 189 economies. This year the publication addresses regulations affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity including: •Starting a business •Dealing with construction permits •Getting electricity •Registering property •Getting credit •Protecting minority investors •Paying taxes •Trading across borders •Enforcing contracts •Resolving insolvency Doing Business 2016 updates all indicators as of June 1, 2015, ranks economies on their overall ease of doing business, and analyzes reforms to business regulation †“ identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. This report illustrates how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. It is a flagship product produced by the World Bank Group that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies have used the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 2,100 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.
Asia's 48 countries have an estimated 1.757 billion urban population and 2.4 billion people in rural areas (or approximately 60 per cent of the global population). Divided into central, eastern, southern, south-eastern and western regions, the continent is also extremely heterogeneous in terms of water quality conditions. The policies and management practices vary significantly from one country to another, and even within one country, depending on specific economic, political, social, environmental, legal and institutional factors. In order to appreciate the complexities associated with water quality policy and management, it is important to acknowledge the multiplicity of interrelated and often conflicting events, issues, actors and interests, both within and outside the water sector that impact them. This complexity, alongside institutional inability for systematic and coordinated collaboration, are potent reasons as to why, in the second decade of the 21st century, formulation and implementation of efficient water quality management policies benefitting humankind and the environment have still not been achieved. The book was originally published as a special issue of the International Journal of Water Resources Development.
This report comes at a time when policy makers are challenged by the COVID-19 crisis that is generating a profound reflection on economic and social well-being. Before COVID-19 hit, Indonesia had experienced remarkable economic growth, making substantial progress in poverty reduction and gains in employment. However, there are large differences in outcomes across Indonesian provinces, which often reflect the quality of local infrastructure, services, education, and jobs.
Provides recent information on selected aspects of international migration, covering topics such as the international migration agenda, international policies, documented and undocumented migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, and gender issues. Focus is on issues covered in chapter X of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Popu