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The analysis is based on a sample of 3,058 households in both urban and rural areas in all regions of Ethiopia. The 15-minute interview covers a diverse set of topics such as access to basic services, child educational activities during school closures, employment dynamics, household income and livelihood, income loss and coping strategies, food security and assistance received. In this brief, we focus on topics where gendered differences were striking.
The Ethiopian high-frequency phone survey of households (HFPS-HH) allows for a better understanding of the effects of COVID-19 on households and provides data in almost real time to support new responses to the pandemic as they become necessary. The HFPS-HH builds on the national longitudinal Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS) that the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) carried out in 2019 in collaboration with the World Bank. The HFPS-HH subsample of the ESS sample is representative of households with access to a phone. The survey began in April 2020 with respondents of 3,249 households in Round 1. The same households are tracked for six months, with selected respondents, typically household heads, completing phone-based interviews every three to four weeks. This one-pager summarizes the results of the fifth round of the HFPS-HH. This round took place about 5 months into the pandemic. In this round the survey interviewed 2,770 households in both urban and rural areas in all regions of Ethiopia, implemented between August 24 and September 17, 2020.
The Ethiopian high-frequency phone survey of households (HFPS-HH) allows for a better understanding of the effects of COVID-19 on households and provides data in almost real time to support new responses to the pandemic as they become necessary. The HFPS-HH builds on the national longitudinal Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS) that the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) carried out in 2019 in collaboration with the World Bank. The HFPS-HH subsample of the ESS sample is representative of households with a working phone. The same households are tracked for six months, with selected respondents, typically household heads, completing phone-based interviews every three to four weeks. The datasets (vol.2 - 3) summarize the results of the fourth round of the HFPS-HH--including 2,878 households in both urban and rural areas in all regions of Ethiopia--implemented between July 27 and August 14, 2020.
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its negative economic effects create an urgent need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis and protect the welfare of the least well-off in Ethiopia's society. To monitor the impacts of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on Ethiopia's economy and people and inform interventions and policy responses, the World Bank Ethiopia team, in collaboration with the government, designed and implemented two high-frequency phone surveys, one with firms and one with households.
The World Bank Group, the Ethiopia Agency for Refugee and Returnee Affairs (ARRA), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the World Bank-UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement (JDC) collaborated to integrate refugees in the ongoing High-Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) . The World Bank-led HFPS of households seek to monitor the economic and social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic among Ethiopian nationals and refugees. The main objective is to inform timely and adequate policy and program responses. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia, two rounds of data collection of refugees were completed between September and November 2020. The first round of the joint national and refugee HFPS was implemented between the 24 September and 17 October 2020 and the second round between 20 October and 20 November 2020.
We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.
As in most low and middle-income countries, the paucity of timely economic data in Ethiopia makes it difficult to understand the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate this, several organizations have launched phone surveys to gather more information about the crisis. This research report reviews the available phone survey evidence as of mid-August 2020 and identifies knowledge gaps. First, the available evidence suggest that the pandemic has not led to unusually large increases in food prices. However, a case study in the vegetable sector suggests that price dynamics are highly context and crop specific, calling for more comprehensive price monitoring to identify food value chains and areas where food price increases may have been unusually rapid. Second, employment losses have concentrated on informal sector workers while redundancies in the formal sector have been less significant. Third, there is considerable uncertainty about the income, poverty, and food security implications of this crisis. While most households report income losses, the qualitative and subjective nature of these questions meanthat the magnitudes of these losses are unknown. In Addis Ababa, less subjective food security measures indicate only small negative changes in household food and nutrition security. Finally, due to limited access to mobile phones in rural areas, we have imperfect and incomplete information on how this crisis is affecting rural households.
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its negative economic effects create a need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis. To monitor the impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and related containment measures on formal firms in Ethiopia and inform the policy response, the World Bank, in collaboration with the government, is implementing a high-frequency phone survey of firms (HFPS-F). The HFPS-F interviews a sample of firms in Addis Ababa every three weeks for a total of eight survey rounds, and an additional sample of firms in four other cities in Ethiopia (Adama, Bahir Dar, Hawassa, and Mekelle) for a total of seven rounds. This high-frequency follow-up allows for a better understanding of the effects of and responses to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on firm operations, hiring and firing, and expectations of future operations and labor demand in order to better tailor and implement interventions and policy responses and monitor their effects.
This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.
This edition of the biennial Poverty and Shared Prosperity report brings sobering news. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its associated economic crisis, compounded by the effects of armed conflict and climate change, are reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The fight to end poverty has suffered its worst setback in decades after more than 20 years of progress. The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, already at risk before the pandemic, is now beyond reach in the absence of swift, significant, and sustained action, and the objective of advancing shared prosperity—raising the incomes of the poorest 40 percent in each country—will be much more difficult. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune presents new estimates of COVID-19's impacts on global poverty and shared prosperity. Harnessing fresh data from frontline surveys and economic simulations, it shows that pandemic-related job losses and deprivation worldwide are hitting already poor and vulnerable people hard, while also shifting the profile of global poverty to include millions of 'new poor.' Original analysis included in the report shows that the new poor are more urban, better educated, and less likely to work in agriculture than those living in extreme poverty before COVID-19. It also gives new estimates of the impact of conflict and climate change, and how they overlap. These results are important for targeting policies to safeguard lives and livelihoods. It shows how some countries are acting to reverse the crisis, protect those most vulnerable, and promote a resilient recovery. These findings call for urgent action. If the global response fails the world's poorest and most vulnerable people now, the losses they have experienced to date will be minimal compared with what lies ahead. Success over the long term will require much more than stopping COVID-19. As efforts to curb the disease and its economic fallout intensify, the interrupted development agenda in low- and middle-income countries must be put back on track. Recovering from today's reversals of fortune requires tackling the economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 with a commitment proportional to the crisis itself. In doing so, countries can also plant the seeds for dealing with the long-term development challenges of promoting inclusive growth, capital accumulation, and risk prevention—particularly the risks of conflict and climate change.