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A strong export-led recovery is underway. Despite early actions and a successful vaccination campaign, the pandemic is lingering in Mongolia as positivity rates remain high and borders largely closed. An export-led recovery which began in mid-2020, is gathering steam due to booming prices for Mongolia’s exports. Nevertheless, domestic demand, labor markets and the business sector remain weak. Policies were appropriately supportive during the pandemic. However, large, untargeted and continuing fiscal, quasi-fiscal and financial forbearance measures legislated by Parliament have heightened macrofinancial vulnerabilities: public debt has sharply increased, bank balance sheets have further weakened, and the Bank of Mongolia’s (BOM) operational independence has been compromised. On the plus side, external and fiscal buffers have been built, helped by the 2021 IMF SDR allocation of US$98.3 million (95.8 percent of quota), and the rollover of large external liabilities has increased policy space.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Mongolia discusses that economy growth accelerated to 8.6 percent in the first quarter of 2019, over fiscal balance turned into surplus in 2018, and gross international reserves have increased by $2 1/2 billion since 2016. The recovery stems from a stronger policy framework, significant official financing and a rebound in external demand. Notwithstanding the progress, Mongolia remains vulnerable to external shocks given its high debt levels and the economy’s dependence on mineral exports. Structural reforms progressed in several key areas: the budget process is more resilient to political pressure and quasi-fiscal activities were curtailed. In order to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth, it is necessary to advance the current reform efforts by strengthening the rule-based fiscal policy framework, ensuring financial sector soundness and improving governance. Risks are tilted toward the downside in the near term. Shocks to mineral demand can lead to sharp fall in exports, weakening growth outlook and fiscal accounts. A slowdown in growth could trigger financial instability given still inadequate capital buffers at some banks and overindebted households.
Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.
Malaysia’s economy is showing signs of a gradual yet steady recovery thanks to the authorities’ impressive vaccine rollout, swift and coordinated implementation of multi-pronged support measures. The recovery nevertheless remains uneven and the output gap sizeable, with significant downside risks. Going forward, the authorities should calibrate macroeconomic policies to the pace of the recovery, while preserving policy space given pandemic-related uncertainties, and simultaneously accelerate structural reforms.
This volume investigates how mining affects societies and communities in Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan. As ex-Soviet states, Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan share history, culture and transitions to democracy. Most importantly, both are mineral-rich countries on China’s frontier and epi-centres of resource extraction. This volume examines challenges communities in these countries encounter on the long journey through resource exploration, extraction and mine closure. The book is organised into three related sections that travel from mine licensing and instigation to early anticipation of benefit through the realisation of social and environmental impacts to finite issues such as jobs, monitoring, dispute resolution and reclamation. Most originally, each chapter will include a final section entitled "Notes from the field" that presents the voice of in-country researchers and stakeholders. These sections will provide local contextual knowledge on the chapter’s theme by practitioners from Mongolia and Central Asia. The volume thereby offers a distinctively grounded perspective on the tensions and benefits of mining in this dynamic region. Using Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan as case studies, the volume reflects on the evolving challenges communities and societies encounter with resource extraction worldwide. The book will be of great interest to students and scholars of mining and natural resource extraction, corporate social responsibility and sustainable development.
The economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has been well-managed by the authorities. Timely and prudent fiscal and monetary easing shielded the economy from the full brunt of the crisis, while alleviating the health and social impact of the shock. Sound economic policies helped deliver macroeconomic stabilization, safeguard debt sustainability, and preserve investor confidence. While growth is expected to rebound in FY2021/22, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty related to the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations. High public debt and large gross financing needs leave Egypt vulnerable to external shocks or changes in financial market conditions for EMs. Near-term fiscal and monetary policies should thus continue to support the recovery without accumulating undue imbalances.

Cambodia

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Published: 2022-12-18

Total Pages: 122


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After suffering a recession during the pandemic, the Cambodian economy was on a steady recovery path, but is facing new pressures in 2022 that have buffeted external demand and increased inflation rates. The authorities have largely continued with crisis policy responses and have pressed on with policy reforms. The recovery is projected to continue, notwithstanding external stresses. Risks of public debt distress remain low. However, the level of private debt raises concerns about potential debt overhang.
Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. Despite strong buffers, the economy needs to be better prepared for future shocks in both the short term (e.g., from war spillovers, inflation, and global economic and financial conditions) and the medium term (e.g., from geo-economic fragmentation, climate events, and global decarbonization).
The COVID-19 shock has underscored the importance of digital tools for enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of social protection systems. Cross-country evidence suggests that digital IDs linked with bank and/or mobile money accounts can improve the delivery of social protection programs and better reach eligible beneficiaries. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey, we present micro simulations on the welfare gains of digital social protection during the pandemic. While digitalization offers opportunities, potential risks would need to be carefully managed. Vietnam is advancing on individual pieces of the digitalization puzzle, including full digital IDs and mobile money, and the next step is to put these pieces together.
China has enjoyed decades of impressive growth, which has significantly improved living standards and largely eradicated extreme poverty. The growth has, however, been accompanied by widening imbalances and rising vulnerabilities, as excessive investment in infrastructure and housing has resulted in rising debt levels among property developers, local governments (LG), and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The authorities have proactively sought to contain developer leverage. This has contributed to a significant, but needed, adjustment in the property market that continues to weigh on economic activity, including through its impact on LG finances. Amid these structural challenges, the authorities have appropriately announced their goal to transition to high quality growth while tackling risks from the property sector and LG debt.