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This paper analyzes the demand for narrow money balances in the Netherlands. Demand for narrow money balances had increased markedly in relation to GNP in the Netherlands throughout the 1980s. This phenomenon could not be explained satisfactorily with traditional Goldfeld-type money demand functions which had performed well until that time. Drawing on advances in dynamic modeling from the error corrections and cointegration literature, and incorporating yield-curve effects and the exchange rate of the guilder with the U.S. dollar as additional monetary indicators significantly improves the performance of money demand estimates.
In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen tral importance. Therefore a workshop on Money Demand in Europe was organized at the Humboldt University in Berlin on October 10/11, 1997. This research conference brought together academic and central bank econo mists and econometricians predominantly from Europe to discuss issues on specification, estimation and, in particular, stability of money demand rela tions both in a single equation and in a systems framework. In this volume revised versions of the papers presented and discussed at the workshop are collected. The volume thereby gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe on the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank.
Financial sector liberalization, both domestic and in cross-border transactions, was a major force behind the gradual move to indirect controls and the shift toward full reliance on exchange rate targeting in the Netherlands. This paper analyzes the different steps in this process, discusses the main arguments behind the gradual approach, and draws lessons for other countries involved in this process. The paper argues that reforms in the financial sector, liberalization of the capital account, adjustments in supervision and regulation, and modernization of monetary management are strongly interrelated and should be part of a comprehensive reform strategy.
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This book explores the scope and limits of macroeconomic policy in a monetary union. The focus is on pure policies, policy mixes, and policy coordination. The leading protagonists are the union central bank, national governments, and national trade unions. Special emphasis is put on wage shocks and wage restraint. This book develops a series of basic, intermediate, and advanced models. The monetary union is an open economy with high capital mobility. The exchange rate between the monetary union and the rest of the world is floating. The world interest rate can be exogenous or endogenous. The union countries may differ in money demand, consumption, imports, openness, or size. A striking feature is the numerical estimation of policy multipliers. A lot of diagrams serve to illustrate the subject in hand.
In most Keynesian-type macroeconomic models the financial sector is modelled in terms of money demand, money supply and money market equilibrium. The market equations for private and government debt, i.e. credit, are implicit in these models by virtue of Walras' Law and need not be explicitly specified. Market equations for existing physical capital, or shares in capital, are absent from these models on the tacit assumption that physical capital cannot be traded and, consequently, has no market price. Money in these models is a substitute for private and government debt, not for current output, let alone for physical capital (or claims thereon). Models with these characteristics have three basic weaknesses. They narrow down the monetary transmission mechanism to a small subset of assets. Moreover, they produce downward-biased estimates of the degree of controllability of money in open economies if money and claims on physical capital are actually substitutes. Finally, these models are ill-suited to analyze adequately the effects of open market operations and of financing government budget deficits which change the stocks of money and debt.