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The elasticity of substitution in transactions between money and bonds is a crucial determinant of the seigniorage- maximizing inflation rate and of whether the semi- elasticity of money demand with inflation increases with inflation.
Conventional estimates of the seigniorage-maximizing inflation rate often make use of the Cagan form, which implies a constant semielasticity of money demand with respect to inflation. This paper shows that the elasticity of substitution in transactions between money and bonds determines how the inflation semielasticity of money demand changes as inflation rises. Allowing for a variable semielasticity, estimates of seigniorage-maximizing inflation for a panel of eleven high-inflation countries are lower than those obtained by using the Cagan form. Estimates based on the correct measure of the opportunity cost of money also differ sharply from those obtained when using conventional inflation measures.
The present work estimates collected seigniorage levels in the Venezuelan economy from 1994Q1 to 2018Q2 and tries to determine when and if a seigniorage-maximizing inflation rate occurred and this way provide a rational on the development of hyperinflation in the country. Results suggest that the Venezuelan government acts as a seigniorage maximizer. The model predicts that the seigniorage-maximizing rate of inflation of the Venezuelan economy occurred around the first quarter of 2016 at a monthly inflation rate of approximately 13 percent. The implications of this are that when facing the choice of maximizing short-run seigniorage even at the expense of long-run seigniorage, the government has opted for the first one and face the perils of hyperinflation; this could certainly be the rational choice of a government that either feels cornered or confidently-headed towards a more heterodox regime. The study finally shows how the current regime, by increasing the role of the public sector in the economy through a series of interventions, has managed to expropriate an important part of the population's wealth, whereas the previous regime, through less intervention, respect to basic economic freedoms, and standard macroeconomic management, never put itself on the “bad side” of the Bailey curve.
This paper examines the welfare effects of mitigating the costs of inflation. In a simple model where money reduces transaction costs, a fall in the costs of inflation is equivalent to financial innovation. This can be caused by paying interest on deposits, indexing money, or “dollarizing.” Results indicate that financial innovation raises welfare in low inflation economies while reducing it in high inflation economies, due to the offsetting indirect effect of higher inflation to finance the budget.
In Argentina, increases in inflation appear to be closely linked to government attempts to increase seigniorage (government revenues from issuing money). The implication? Any serious stabilization effort requires finding an alternative source of revenue to replace the inflation tax.