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Regional monetary integration, financial liberalization, and the adoption of indirect policy instruments have changed the conditions for monetary policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The stability of money demand has become a crucial element for monetary policy. This paper presents empirical money demand estimations for regional monetary aggregates and analyzes their stability and forecast performance. The estimations result in a stable relationship for narrow money (M1). Consequently, the region`s central bank, the BCEAO, can continue to conduct monetary policy in line with the fixed exchange rate system if it succeeds in maintaining financial stability.
Regional monetary integration, financial liberalization, and the adoption of indirect policy instruments have changed the conditions for monetary policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The stability of money demand has become a crucial element for monetary policy. This paper presents empirical money demand estimations for regional monetary aggregates and analyzes their stability and forecast performance. The estimations result in a stable relationship for narrow money (M1). Consequently, the region’;s central bank, the BCEAO, can continue to conduct monetary policy in line with the fixed exchange rate system if it succeeds in maintaining financial stability.
Regional monetary integration, financial liberalisation and the adoption of indirect policy instruments continue to change the conditions for monetary policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). While the identification of a stable money demand relationship has become a crucial element for monetary policy, differences in economic behaviour between Cocirc;te d`Ivoire and the remaining countries may induce instability at the aggregate level. This paper analyses the demand for money for the entire WAEMU, the six smaller member countries, and Cocirc;te d`Ivoire. A stable aggregate money demand function is identified and interpreted in light of the results for the sub-regional estimations.
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
The WAEMU has, so far, demonstrated strong resilience to the Covid crisis. The economic rebound that started in the second half of 2020 firmed up in 2021, while fiscal and monetary policies remained supportive. External reserves have risen to comfortable levels and the financial system appears to be broadly sound. However, the region faces significant challenges to ensure the sustainability of macroeconomic policies, while supporting the economic recovery and navigating the uncertain outlook.
The WAEMU’s post-Covid-19 recovery has so far withstood the new global and regional shocks, partly owing to supportive fiscal and monetary policies as well as relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals over the previous decade. Growth prospects remain favorable, reserves—albeit declining—remain adequate, and the financial system appears to be resilient. However, the region faces important challenges associated with rising inflation, limited access to international capital markets, eroding external buffers, and regional security issues, in the presence of elevated global risks.
In 2010, average inflation has remained low in all West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, but has edged up in the second half of the year. After a moderate fiscal easing by about 11⁄2 percentage points of GDP in 2009, mostly the result of higher capital spending, the area-wide average deficit is estimated to have declined slightly to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2010. A compression of imports in 2009, the region’s external current account deficit is estimated to have returned to about 51⁄2 percent of GDP in 2010.
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency union with a fixed exchange rate and limited capital mobility and, therefore, an independent monetary policy in the short run. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) is conducting the single monetary policy with the main goal of preserving price stability and supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of its monetary policy remains low, with a weak reaction of market interest rates and inflation to BCEAO’s policy actions. The paper concludes that, while the institutional setup and the instruments of monetary policy are adequate, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains constrained by liquidity management practices, shallow and segmented financial markets, and interest rate rigidities. To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy the BCEAO should be more proactive in determining the stance of fiscal policies, develop financial markets, and liberalize controlled interest rates. The BCEAO is undertaking important reforms in these directions.