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In Monetary and Fiscal Policy Through a DSGE Lens, Harold L. Cole develops and extends versions of a classic quantitative model of economic growth to take on a wide range of topics in monetary and fiscal policy. Bridging the gap between current undergraduate and graduate texts in the field, this comprehensive book covers the basic elements of advanced macroeconomics and equips readers to understand the debate on key policy questions. By using the simple DSGE, or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, framework to build a series of quantitative models, the book combines a gradual introduction to advanced analytic methods with computer programming and quantitative policy analysis. In a clear discussion of the sophisticated interaction between theory and data, Cole explains how to gauge how well a model captures key elements in the data and how to reverse engineer a model to data. The book covers costs of inflation, optimal monetary policy, the impact of labor and capital taxes, and optimal fiscal policy. It systematically discusses technical material including the new Keynesian liquidity shock models, standard analytic methods, such as Lagrangian methods, and computational methods using Matlab and Python. With a strong computational emphasis, the volume teaches how to program up and solve systems of non-linear equations and develop models to study the macroeconomy. Knowing how to deeply understand and analyze models and develop computational code to evaluate the implications of those models is essential for students of macroeconomics. This book connects the standard undergraduate material to the elaborate models of advanced graduate courses with systematic and logical coverage of the basics of advanced modern macroeconomics.
DSGE models; monetary policy; fiscal policy; Markov switching; inflation targeting; exchange rate policy; oil price shock; stimulus package; Great Recession
This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy
Using an estimated DSGE model that features monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allows for equilibrium indeterminacy, we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre-Volcker period while an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed post-Volcker. Since both monetary and fiscal policies were passive pre-Volcker, there was equilibrium indeterminacy that gave rise to self-fulfilling beliefs and resulted in substantially different transmission mechanisms of policy as compared to conventional models: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output. Unanticipated shifts in monetary and fiscal policies however, played no substantial role in explaining the variation of inflation and output at any horizon in either of the time periods. Pre-Volcker, in sharp contrast to post-Volcker, we find that a time-varying inflation target does not explain low-frequency movements in inflation. Finally, in a counterfactual exercise, we show that had the monetary policy regime of the post-Volcker era been in place pre-Volcker, inflation volatility would have been lower by 36% and the rise of inflation in the 1970s would not have occurred.
DSGE models; monetary policy; fiscal policy; Markov switching; inflation targeting; exchange rate policy; oil price shock; stimulus package; Great Recession.
"A book which examines how government - which is to say, all of us, acting collectively - can make our country healthier, wealthier and happier, if we put government to useful work in those areas where it most productively complements our private markets"--Provided by publisher.
The financial system is a densely interconnected network of financial intermediaries, facilitators, and markets that serves three major purposes: allocating capital, sharing risks, and facilitating intertemporal trade. Asset prices are an important mechanism in each of these phenomena. Capital allocation, whether through loans or other forms of investment, can vary both across sectors-at the broadest, manufactures, agriculture, and services-and within sectors, for example different firms. The risk that various investors are willing to take reflects their financial position and alternative opportunities. Risk and asset allocation are also influenced by whether money, and especially its expenditure, is more important now or in the future. These decisions are all influenced by governmental policies. When there are mismatches, the results include financial meltdowns, fiscal deficits, sovereign debt, default and debt crises. Harold L. Cole provides a broad overview of the financial system and assets pricing, covering history, institutional detail, and theory. The book begins with an overview of financial markets and their operation and then covers asset pricing for standard assets and derivatives, and analyzes what modern finance says about firm behavior and capital structure. It then examines theories of money, exchange rates, electronic payments methods, and cryptocurrencies. After exploring banks and other forms of financial intermediation, the book examines the role they played in the Great Recession. Having provided an overview of the provate sector, Cole switches to public finance and government borrowing as well as the incentives to monetize the public debt and its consequences. The book closes with an examination of sovereign debt crises and an analysis of their various forms. Finance and financial intermediation are central to modern economies. This book covers all of the material a sophisticated economist needs to know about this area.