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The more advanced Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) face an evolving set of considerations in choosing their exchange rate policies. On the one hand, capital mobility is increasing, and this imposes additional constraints on fixed exchange rate regimes, while trend real appreciation makes the combination of low inflation and exchange rate stability problematic. On the other hand, the objectives of EU and eventual EMU membership make attractive a peg to the euro at some stage in the transition. The paper discusses these conflicting considerations, and considers the feasibility of an alternative monetary framework, inflation targeting.
In view of the requirements of Stage 2 of European Monetary Union (EMU) for accession to the European Union, this paper examines the desirability for, and the ability of, the lead candidates in Central and Eastern Europe to participate in the new exchange rate mechanism (ERM2) and eventually in EMU. For most of these countries the benefits are likely to outweigh the cost of participation. After successfully meeting the basic conditions (wage flexibility, prudent fiscal and monetary stance, financial system soundness) for ERM2, each candidate should be able to shadow the euro, with sufficient flexibility around the central rate, prior to formal participation. The paper concludes with a discussion of two policy dilemmas.
The Economic and Business Consequences of the EMU A Challenge for Governments, Financial Institutions and Firms Hubert Ooghe Conference Chairman, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School alld Ghent University EMU finally got under way on 1 st January 1999. Since then 11 European countries share a common currency, the Euro, and pursue a common monetary policy managed by the European Central Bank (ECB). After forty years of economic integration, Euroland has the wherewithal with which to enter the 21 st century. However monetary union has implications for nearly all areas of economic activity and decision-making. Throughout the academic world researchers are fully occupied with the theoretical analysis of the impact of the Euro and the effects of incorporating the new operational framework into their economic models. Businesses and government departments are concerned primarily with the practical implementation of the single currency. For all those who playa part in the economy, it is a question of making the most of the macro and micro economic opportunities offered by the Euro and minimising any threats. On 17th and 18th March 2000, after the EMU and Euro were in operation for one year, an international conference was held in Ghent (Belgium) on the economic consequences of the introduction of the EMU and the Euro for governments, financial institutions and firms.
the adaptation of the institutional settings of monetary policy to deal with an emerging market economy had to be carried out in the midst of an unprecedented stabilization effort and, therefore, was particularly urgent and complicated. In many of the transition countries, the transformation effort implied not just changes in procedures but the establishment of a central bank from scratch, a process that involved an important effort, precisely at a time when the whole system was in serious turmoil. While the process of reforms is not yet completed in all the transition countries, an immense amount of progress has been achieved, and many of the transition countries face today monetary and central banking conditions that are close to those of Western economies. In this volume, we collect a number of important contributions that discuss the most burning aspects of the current debates on central banking and monetary policy and draw implications for the postsocialist transition economies. The various papers included in the volume deal with a broad set of related issues, which are highly relevant not just for transition economies but for other emerging markets and for advanced economies as well. The subjects covered in the book are divided into seven major categories (Sections II to VIII), some of which overlap.
This book presents articles that focus on the inter-related issues of choice of exchange rate and monetary policy regimes, and others that use a global macroeconomic model developed by the author and collaborators to quantify the effects of the 'baby boom' on global imbalances, costs of disinflation, and the effects of German unification. The book presents new analysis of the euro-zone experience and its applicability to other monetary unions, as well as a discussion of the prerequisites for successful inflation targeting. It is grounded in real-world data, readily accessible to non-specialists, and addresses important economic policy issues.
The themes of this study are the exchange rate regimes chosen by policy makers in the twentieth century, the means used to maintain these regimes, and the impact of these decisions on individual national economies and the world economy in general. The book draws heavily on new research showing the lessons and the legacy left for policy makers by the gold standard and the attempt at its resurrection in the 1920s. In examining issues such as the gold exchange standard, the gold bullion standard, the experience of floating exchange rates, the Bretton Woods arrangements, the EMS and the ERM, and the Currency Board approach, there is a conscious attempt to draw out the relevance of history for policy makers now.
At the beginning of the transition process, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe faced the task of creating a functioning financial system where none had existed before. A decade later, high-level practitioners and well-known experts take stock of banking and monetary policy in the region, centring on: the governance of banks; the spread of financial crisis; and, perspectives for monetary policy and banking sector development.
This study assesses economic developments and policies during the inaugural year of Europe's single currency regime. It analyses the economic performance and prospects of the euro area as a whole, and highlights to what extent aggregate trends are shaped by convergence or divergence.
Since beginning economic transition, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia have—with much success—employed diverse exchange rate regimes. As these countries approach EU accession, they will need to avoid the perils of too much or too little exchange rate variability when capital flows are likely to be large and volatile; narrow band arrangements in particular could be problematic. The exception is Estonia, where there are good arguments for retaining the currency board arrangement. Countries wishing to join the euro area at an early stage should not leave the removal of remaining capital controls to the last minute.
This book is based on the conference "EMU and the Outside World", held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), December 11, 1998. The conference was organized by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF), which is supported jointly by the ETH and the Swiss Society for Business Cycle Research (SGK), an organization comprising representatives from private industry, the Swiss National Bank and public authorities. On the eve of the final stage of European Economic and Mone tary Union (EMU), Zurich seemed to be a particularly appropriate place for such a conference. On the one hand, given its location and economic and financial links with the euro area, Switzerland is one of the "outside coun tries" most affected by EMU. On the other hand, it was nowhere else than in Zurich where the vision of "a United States of Europe" was expressed for the first time by Winston Churchill in his speech on September 19, 1946. For many EMU is a step in that direction, whether welcome or not. Most of the papers appearing in this volume were presented at the con ference and have been revised and updated. Three contributions, chapter 11- 13, were commissioned specially for this publication. Besides the authors of the chapters, special thanks are due to Guido Boller, Robert McCauley, Umberto Schwarz, and Charles Wyplosz.