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A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) is a crucial tool for military affairs. MS&A is one of the announced pillars of a strategy for transforming the U.S. military. Yet changes in the enterprise of MS&A have not kept pace with the new demands arising from rapid changes in DOD processes and missions or with the rapid changes in the technology available to meet those demands. To help address those concerns, DOD asked the NRC to identify shortcomings in current practice of MS&A and suggest where and how they should be resolved. This report provides an assessment of the changing mission of DOD and environment in which it must operate, an identification of high-level opportunities for MS&A research to address the expanded mission, approaches for improving the interface between MS&A practitioners and decision makers, a discussion of training and continuing education of MS&A practitioners, and an examination of the need for coordinated military science research to support MS&A.
Addresses the challenges of this changed world, the difficulties for defense planning these challenges engender, and new analytic techniques for framing these complex problems.
The mission of the United States Army is to fight and win our nation's wars by providing prompt, sustained land dominance across the full range of military operations and spectrum of conflict in support of combatant commanders. Accomplishing this mission rests on the ability of the Army to equip and move its forces to the battle and sustain them while they are engaged. Logistics provides the backbone for Army combat operations. Without fuel, ammunition, rations, and other supplies, the Army would grind to a halt. The U.S. military must be prepared to fight anywhere on the globe and, in an era of coalition warfare, to logistically support its allies. While aircraft can move large amounts of supplies, the vast majority must be carried on ocean going vessels and unloaded at ports that may be at a great distance from the battlefield. As the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown, the costs of convoying vast quantities of supplies is tallied not only in economic terms but also in terms of lives lost in the movement of the materiel. As the ability of potential enemies to interdict movement to the battlefield and interdict movements in the battlespace increases, the challenge of logistics grows even larger. No matter how the nature of battle develops, logistics will remain a key factor. Force Multiplying Technologies for Logistics Support to Military Operations explores Army logistics in a global, complex environment that includes the increasing use of antiaccess and area-denial tactics and technologies by potential adversaries. This report describes new technologies and systems that would reduce the demand for logistics and meet the demand at the point of need, make maintenance more efficient, improve inter- and intratheater mobility, and improve near-real-time, in-transit visibility. Force Multiplying Technologies also explores options for the Army to operate with the other services and improve its support of Special Operations Forces. This report provides a logistics-centric research and development investment strategy and illustrative examples of how improved logistics could look in the future.
Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community. The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs. While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
A Professional's Guide to Decision Science and Problem Solving provides an integrated, start-to-finish framework for more effective problem solving and decision making in corporations. Drawing on vast experience in the field, the authors show how to apply state-of-the-art decision science, statistical modeling, benchmarking, and processing modeling techniques together to create a robust analytical framework for better decision making in any field, especially those that rely on advanced operations management. They integrate both newly-developed and time-tested techniques into a logical, structured approach for assessing corporate issues, developing solutions, and making decisions that drive the successful achievement of corporate objectives. Coverage includes: defining objectives, exploring the environment; scoping problems and evaluating their importance; bringing data mining and statistical analysis to bear; solving problems and measuring the results; evaluating the results and performing sensitivity analysis, and more. The book concludes with three case study chapters that walk through the effective use of its methods, step-by-step. Representing a wide variety of corporate environments, these case studies underscore and demonstrate the method's exceptional adaptability. This book will be valuable in a wide range of industries, notably finance, pharmaceutical, healthcare, economics, and manufacturing.
This book describes the new perspective of naturalistic decision making. The point of departure is how people make decisions in complex, time-pressured, ambiguous, and changing environments. The purpose of this book is to present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making. The central philosophy of the book is that classical decision theory has been unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics. The contributors believe there is little to be learned from laboratory studies about how people actually handle difficult and interesting tasks; therefore, the book presents a critique of classical decision theory. The models of naturalistic decision making described by the contributors were derived to explain the behavior of firefighters, business people, jurors, nuclear power plant operators, and command-and-control officers. The models are unique in that they address the way people use experience to frame situations and adopt courses of action. The models explain the strengths of skilled decision makers. Naturalistic decision research requires the examination of field settings, and a section of the book covers methods for conducting meaningful research outside the laboratory. In addition, since his approach has applied value, the book covers issues of training and decision support systems.
In times of constant change, adaptive leadership is critical. This Harvard Business Review collection brings together the seminal ideas on how to adapt and thrive in challenging environments, from leading thinkers on the topic—most notably Ronald A. Heifetz of the Harvard Kennedy School and Cambridge Leadership Associates. The Heifetz Collection includes two classic books: Leadership on the Line, by Ron Heifetz and Marty Linsky, and The Practice of Adaptive Leadership, by Heifetz, Linsky, and Alexander Grashow. Also included is the popular Harvard Business Review article, “Leadership in a (Permanent) Crisis,” written by all three authors. Available together for the first time, this collection includes full digital editions of each work. Adaptive leadership is a practical framework for dealing with today’s mix of urgency, high stakes, and uncertainty. It has been used by individuals, organizations, businesses, and governments worldwide. In a world of challenging environments, adaptive leadership serves as a guide to distinguishing the essential from the expendable, beginning the meaningful process of adaption, and changing the status quo. Ronald A. Heifetz is a cofounder of the international leadership and consulting practice Cambridge Leadership Associates (CLA) and the founding director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is renowned worldwide for his innovative work on the practice and teaching of leadership. Marty Linsky is a cofounder of CLA and has taught at the Kennedy School for more than twenty-five years. Alexander Grashow is a Senior Advisor to CLA, having previously held the position of CEO.
Brantly investigates how states decide to employ cyber in military and intelligence operations against other states and how rational those decisions are. He contextualizes broader cyber decision-making processes into a systematic expected utility-rational choice approach to provide a mathematical understanding of the use of cyber weapons.