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We respect Herbert A. Simon as an established leader of empirical and logical analysis in the human sciences while we happily think of him as also the loner; of course he works with many colleagues but none can match him. He has been writing fruitfully and steadily for four decades in many fields, among them psychology, logic, decision theory, economics, computer science, management, production engineering, information and control theory, operations research, confirmation theory, and we must have omitted several. With all of them, he is at once the technical scientist and the philosophical critic and analyst. When writing of decisions and actions, he is at the interface of philosophy of science, decision theory, philosophy of the specific social sciences, and inventory theory (itself, for him, at the interface of economic theory, production engineering and information theory). When writing on causality, he is at the interface of methodology, metaphysics, logic and philosophy of physics, systems theory, and so on. Not that the interdisciplinary is his orthodoxy; we are delighted that he has chosen to include in this book both his early and little-appreciated treatment of straightforward philosophy of physics - the axioms of Newtonian mechanics, and also his fine papers on pure confirmation theory.
Since the origin of the modern sciences, our views on discovery and creativity had a remarkable history. Originally, discovery was seen as an integral part of methodology and the logic of discovery as algorithmic or nearly algorithmic. During the nineteenth century, conceptions in line with romanticism led to the famous opposition between the context of discovery and the context of justification, culminating in a view that banned discovery from methodology. The revival of the methodological investigation of discovery, which started some thirty years ago, derived its major impetus from historical and sociological studies of the sciences and from developments within cognitive psychology and artificial intelligence. Today, a large majority of philosophers of science agrees that the classical conception as well as the romantic conception are mistaken. Against the classical conception, it is generally accepted that truly novel discoveries are not the result of simply applying some standardized procedure. Against the romantic conception, it is rejected that discoveries are produced by unstructured flashes of insight. An especially important result of the contemporary study concerns the availability of (descriptive and normative) models for explaining discoveries and creative processes. Descriptive models mainly aim at explaining the origin of novel products; normative models moreover address the question how rational researchers should proceed when confronted with problems for which a standard procedure is missing. The present book provides an overview of these models and of the important changes they induced within methodology. As appears from several papers, the methodological study of discovery and creativity led to profound changes in our conceptions of justification and acceptance, of rationality, of scientific change, and of conceptual change. The book contains contributions from both historians and philosophers of science. All of them, however, are methodological in the contemporary sense of the term. The central values of this methodology are empirical accurateness, clarity and precision, and rationality. The different contributions realize these values by their interdisciplinary nature. Some philosophically oriented papers rely on historical case studies and results from the cognitive sciences, others on recent results from the computer sciences and/or non-standard logics. The historically oriented papers address central philosophical questions and hypotheses.
The volume is based on the papers that were presented at the Interna tional Conference Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery (MBR'98), held at the Collegio Ghislieri, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy, in December 1998. The papers explore how scientific thinking uses models and explanatory reasoning to produce creative changes in theories and concepts. The study of diagnostic, visual, spatial, analogical, and temporal rea soning has demonstrated that there are many ways of performing intelligent and creative reasoning that cannot be described with the help only of tradi tional notions of reasoning such as classical logic. Traditional accounts of scientific reasoning have restricted the notion of reasoning primarily to de ductive and inductive arguments. Understanding the contribution of model ing practices to discovery and conceptual change in science requires ex panding scientific reasoning to include complex forms of creative reasoning that are not always successful and can lead to incorrect solutions. The study of these heuristic ways of reasoning is situated at the crossroads of philoso phy, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and logic; that is, at the heart of cognitive science. There are several key ingredients common to the various forms of model based reasoning to be considered in this book. The models are intended as in terpretations of target physical systems, processes, phenomena, or situations. The models are retrieved or constructed on the basis of potentially satisfying salient constraints of the target domain.
Discovery, the multi-purpose vehicle whose versatility has made it equally at home on urban streets as it is in off-road conditions. Liberally illustrated, this volume discusses and explains design and development; model features; accessories and equipment; production and sales history; off-road driving techniques; technical specs and more. Tailored to those looking to know precisely what is offered amongst today's many Discovery variants.
This is the first coherent book on literature-based discovery (LBD). LBD is an inherently multi-disciplinary enterprise. The aim of this volume is to plant a flag in the ground and inspire new researchers to the LBD challenge.
A quarter of a century ago, the Land Rover Discovery defined at a stroke how traditional 4 x 4 all-terrain ability could co-exist with family-estate practicality at an affordable price. Since 1989, the Discovery has gone through several iterations, but its essential qualities have remained unchanged. Practical, capable, and above all completely distinctive - the stepped roof seemed odd at first but now defines the Discovery shape - the Discovery has gone on to become one of Land Rover's best-loved products. Land Rover Discovery - 25 Years of the Family 4 x 4 looks in detail at the four generations of Discovery, including full specification details and production histories. Topics covered include the design and development of the original Discovery in the late 1980s, and the move into North America; the new 300Tdi engine and R380 gearbox of 1994, and the BMW takeover; Series II models of 1998-2004, and Land Rover's move from BMW to Ford; Discovery 3/'LR3' - 2004-2009, and the new TDV6 engine, developed by Jaguar; Discovery 4/'LR4' - the all-purpose family luxury car; special editions and derivatives of all four generations of Discovery, including Discoverys for the emergency services and the Camel Trophy and G4 Challenge competition vehicles. Superbly illustrated with 351 colour photographs.
A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation. Economic models of empirical phenomena are developed for a variety of reasons, the most obvious of which is the numerical characterization of available evidence, in a suitably parsimonious form. Another is to test a theory, or evaluate it against the evidence; still another is to forecast future outcomes. Building such models involves a multitude of decisions, and the large number of features that need to be taken into account can overwhelm the researcher. Automatic model selection, which draws on recent advances in computation and search algorithms, can create, and then empirically investigate, a vastly wider range of possibilities than even the greatest expert. In this book, leading econometricians David Hendry and Jurgen Doornik report on their several decades of innovative research on automatic model selection. After introducing the principles of empirical model discovery and the role of model selection, Hendry and Doornik outline the stages of developing a viable model of a complicated evolving process. They discuss the discovery stages in detail, considering both the theory of model selection and the performance of several algorithms. They describe extensions to tackling outliers and multiple breaks, leading to the general case of more candidate variables than observations. Finally, they briefly consider selecting models specifically for forecasting.
This collection reports on recent advances in the study of scientific discovery and theory formation based on the computational techniques of artificial intelligence and cognitive science.
This is an updated version of the successful You & Your Land Rover Discovery by the same author. Covering history, buying, owning and modifying, this edition includes full coverage of models produced since publication of the original book, including the latest Discovery 3 range. New material, new pictures and a fresh design make this a fine addition to the Haynes Enthusiast Guide Series and a useful reference for Discovery owners and prospective owners alike.