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This study is an important first step in the development of a national policy on illegal drugs. It assesses two recent cost-effectiveness studies on cocaine control policy: one by RAND, Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs, and the other by the Institute of Defense Analyses, An Empirical Examination of Counterdrug Interdiction Program Effectiveness.
Despite efforts to reduce drug consumption in the United States over the past 35 years, drugs are just as cheap and available as they have ever been. Cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamines continue to cause great harm in the country, particularly in minority communities in the major cities. Marijuana use remains a part of adolescent development for about half of the country's young people, although there is controversy about the extent of its harm. Given the persistence of drug demand in the face of lengthy and expensive efforts to control the markets, the National Institute of Justice asked the National Research Council to undertake a study of current research on the demand for drugs in order to help better focus national efforts to reduce that demand. This study complements the 2003 book, Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs by giving more attention to the sources of demand and assessing the potential of demand-side interventions to make a substantial difference to the nation's drug problems. Understanding the Demand for Illegal Drugs therefore focuses tightly on demand models in the field of economics and evaluates the data needs for advancing this relatively undeveloped area of investigation.
Conventional wisdom once held that the demand for addictive substances like cigarettes, alcohol, and drugs was unlike that for any other economic good and, therefore, unresponsive to traditional market forces. Recently, however, researchers from two disparate fields, economics and behavioral psychology, have found that increases in the overall price of an addictive substance can significantly reduce both the number of users and the amounts those users consume. Changes in the "full price" of addictive substances—including monetary value, time outlay, effort to obtain, and potential penalties for illegal use—yield marked variations in behavioral outcomes and demand. The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse brings these distinctive fields of study together and presents for the first time an integrated assessment of their data and results. Unique and innovative, this multidisciplinary volume will serve as an important resource in the current debates concerning alcohol and drug use and abuse and the impacts of legalizing illicit drugs.
Timely and authoritative, this volume brings together leading clinical researchers to describe contemporary applications of contingency management principles across a wide range of substance use disorders and patient populations. Contingency management uses a system of incentives and disincentives to motivate patients to meet their treatment goals, and has been implemented successfully in community treatment clinics, drug courts, and other settings. Featuring illustrative case material, the book presents a cogent empirical rationale and practical strategies for targeting major drugs of abuse and working with specific populations, including adolescents, pregnant women, and dually diagnosed and homeless individuals. Also addressed are the nuts and bolts of developing and funding contingency management programs.
This report documents the development of a two-state Markovian model of the demand for cocaine and includes the estimation of incidence, prevalence, cohort retention, and consumption. The Markovian model is required to fit (1) the overall prevalence data; (2) the fraction of all users who are heavy users in 1985, 1988, and 1990; and (3) the fraction of a cohort of initiates that is still using drugs ten years later, the ten-year cohort retention rate. The study states that the incidence of new users into light cocaine use has varied greatly over the years and is an input to the model; however, the model cannot predict future prevalence--it can only project prevalence given a hypothetical incidence scenario. The model also demonstrates that the fraction of all cocaine users who are heavy users has varied greatly over time, and that peak heavy usage followed peak incidence by about ten years. Consequently, the effect on heavy usage of government programs that reduce incidence (such as prevention programs) will only be realized many years later.
The 2019 World Drug Report will include an updated overview of recent trends on production, trafficking and consumption of key illicit drugs. The Report contains a global overview of the baseline data and estimates on drug demand and supply and provides the reference point for information on the drug situation worldwide.