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'Buz Brock's contribution to economic theory in general and economic dynamics in particular are characterized by an unmatched richness of ideas and by deep theoretical, empirical as well as computational analysis. Brock's contribution to economic dynamics range from one extreme of the field, global stability of stochastic optimal growth models, to another extreme, market instability and nonlinearity in economic and financial modelling and data analysis. But his work also includes environmental and economic policy issues and, more recently, the modelling of markets as complex adaptive systems. This collection of essays reflects Brock's richness of ideas that have motivated economists for more than three decades already and will continue to influence many economists for the next decades to come.' - Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 'Buz Brock has been, from the beginning of his career, one of the most original thinkers in dynamic economics. His early work showed that growth with random elements could be studied effectively and above all posed exactly the right questions. His more recent work has brought complexity theory to the fore and shown its implications for financial and other markets. In the process, he has both introduced and used econometric tools to show the relevance of his work to empirically observed phenomena. It is very useful to have his work in collected form.' - Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US This outstanding collection of William Brock's essays illustrates the power of dynamic modelling to shed light on the forces for stability and instability in economic systems. The articles selected reflect his best work and are indicative both of the type of policy problem that he finds challenging and the complex methodology that he uses to solve them. Also included is an introduction by Brock to his own work, which helps tie together the main aspects of his research to date.
Over the last decade, dynamical systems theory and related nonlinear methods have had a major impact on the analysis of time series data from complex systems. Recent developments in mathematical methods of state-space reconstruction, time-delay embedding, and surrogate data analysis, coupled with readily accessible and powerful computational facilities used in gathering and processing massive quantities of high-frequency data, have provided theorists and practitioners unparalleled opportunities for exploratory data analysis, modelling, forecasting, and control. Until now, research exploring the application of nonlinear dynamics and associated algorithms to the study of economies and markets as complex systems is sparse and fragmentary at best. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data brings together a coherent and accessible set of chapters on recent research results on this topic. To make such methods readily useful in practice, the contributors to this volume have agreed to make available to readers upon request all computer programs used to implement the methods discussed in their respective chapters. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data is a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students studying complex systems in finance, biology, and physics, as well as those applying such methods to nonlinear time series analysis and signal processing.
Complex dynamics constitute a growing and increasingly important area as they offer a strong potential to explain and formalize natural, physical, financial and economic phenomena. This book pursues the ambitious goal to bring together an extensive body of knowledge regarding complex dynamics from various academic disciplines. Beyond its focus on economics and finance, including for instance the evolution of macroeconomic growth models towards nonlinear structures as well as signal processing applications to stock markets, fundamental parts of the book are devoted to the use of nonlinear dynamics in mathematics, statistics, signal theory and processing. Numerous examples and applications, almost 700 illustrations and numerical simulations based on the use of Matlab make the book an essential reference for researchers and students from many different disciplines who are interested in the nonlinear field. An appendix recapitulates the basic mathematical concepts required to use the book.
Usually, the first edition of a book still contains a multiplicity of typographic, con ceptional, and computational errors even if one believes the opposite at the time of publication. As this book did not represent a counterexample to this rule, the current second edition offers a chance to remove at least the known shortcomings. The book has been partly re-organized. The previously rather long Chapter 4 has been split into two separate chapters dealing with discrete-time and continuous time approaches to nonlinear economic dynamics. The short summary of basic properties of linear dynamical systems has been banned to an appendix because the line of thought in the chapter seems to have been unnecessarily interrupted by these technical details and because the book concentrates on nonlinear systems. This appendix, which mainly deals with special formal properties of dynamical sys tems, also contains some new material on invariant subspaces and center-manifold reductions. A brief introduction into the theory of lags and operators is followed by a few remarks on the relation between the 'true' properties of dynamical systems and their behavior observable in numerical experiments. Additional changes in the main part of the book include a re-consideration of Popper's determinism vs. inde terminism discussion in the light of chaotic properties of deterministic, nonlinear systems in Chapter 1. An investigation of a simultaneous price-quantity adjustment process, a more detailed inquiry into the uniqueness property of limit cycles, and a short presentation of relaxation oscillations are included in Chapter 2.
This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model’s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.
This volume constitutes the Proceedings of the "Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Social Sciences" Meeting held at the Certosa di Pontignano, Siena, on May 27-30, 1991. The Meeting was organized by the National Group "Modelli Nonlineari in Economia e Dinamiche Complesse" of the Italian Ministery of University and SCientific Research, M.U.RS.T. The aim of the Conference, which followed a previous analogous initiative taking place in the very same Certosa, on January 1988*, was the one of offering a come together opportunity to economists interested in a new mathematical approach to the modelling of economical processes, through the use of more advanced analytical techniques, and mathematicians acting in the field of global dynamical systems theory and applications. A basiC underlying idea drove the organizers: the necessity of fOCUSing on the use that recent methods and results, as those commonly referred to the overpopularized label of "Chaotic Dynamics", did find in the social sciences domain; and thus to check their actual relevance in the research program of modelling economic phenomena, in order to individuate and stress promising perspectives, as well as to curb excessive hopes and criticize not infrequent cases where research reduces to mechanical, ad hoc, applications of "a la mode" techniques. In a word we felt the need of looking about the state of the arts in non-linear systems theory applications to economics and social processes: hence the title of the workshop and the volume.
This book represents the second of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. In this second volume the authors present a detailed analysis and comparison of two competing types of approaches to Keynesian macroeconomics, one that integrates goods, labour and financial markets, and another from the perspective of a conventional type of LM-analysis or interest-rate policy of the central bank. The authors employ rigorous dynamic macro-models of a descriptive and applicable nature, which will be of interest to all macroeconomists who use formal model-building in their investigations. The research in this book with its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. The main conclusion of the work is that policy makers need to reconsider Keynesian ideas, but in the modern form in which they are expressed in this volume. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics will be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. This book will also engage central bankers and macroeconomic policy makers.
1. 1 Introduction In economics, one often observes time series that exhibit different patterns of qualitative behavior, both regular and irregular, symmetric and asymmetric. There exist two different perspectives to explain this kind of behavior within the framework of a dynamical model. The traditional belief is that the time evolution of the series can be explained by a linear dynamic model that is exogenously disturbed by a stochastic process. In that case, the observed irregular behavior is explained by the influence of external random shocks which do not necessarily have an economic reason. A more recent theory has evolved in economics that attributes the patterns of change in economic time series to an underlying nonlinear structure, which means that fluctua tions can as well be caused endogenously by the influence of market forces, preference relations, or technological progress. One of the main reasons why nonlinear dynamic models are so interesting to economists is that they are able to produce a great variety of possible dynamic outcomes - from regular predictable behavior to the most complex irregular behavior - rich enough to meet the economists' objectives of modeling. The traditional linear models can only capture a limited number of possi ble dynamic phenomena, which are basically convergence to an equilibrium point, steady oscillations, and unbounded divergence. In any case, for a lin ear system one can write down exactly the solutions to a set of differential or difference equations and classify them.
This volume contains papers presented at the IFAC symposium on Modeling and control of Economic Systems (SME 2001), which was held at the university of Klagenfurt, Austria. The symposium brought together scientists and users to explore current theoretical developments of modeling techniques for economic systems. It contains a section of plenary, invited and contributed papers presented at the SME 2001 symposium. The papers presented in this volume reflect advances both in methodology and in applications in the area of modeling and control of economic systems.
The present study is a preliminary draft on nonlinear economic dynamics, with which the author has been concerned the last years. It grew out from the joint work by Professor Martin Beckmann and the present author on nonlinear statics in spatial economics, Beckmann and Puu, "Spatial Economics" (North-Holland 1985). The monograph mentioned contains sections on price waves and business cycles, but in a linear format. The rest is static theory. The author has finally come to the conviction that linear dynamic modelling has very little to yield. This is due to the poor set of alternatives -decay or explosion of motion -pertinent to linear models. Therefore, the pr~sent work centres on non-linearity. Another distinction is that only purely causal models are dealt with, as those formatted as inter-temporal equilibria hardly belong to the more restricted field of dynamics. The spatial origin is visible in the choice of models. Chapter 2 summarizes the work by the author on the stmctural stability of continuous spatial market equilibrium models. Chapter 3 deals with a re-formulation of the ingenious population growth and diffusion model invented by the young Hotelling in 1921. Chapter 4 is a detailed digression on business cycle models in a continuous spatial format with interregional trade.