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The term “risk” is known from many fields, and we are used to references to contractual risk, economic risk, operational risk, legal risk, security risk, and so forth. We conduct risk analysis, using either offensive or defensive approaches to identify and assess risk. Offensive approaches are concerned with balancing potential gain against risk of investment loss, while defensive approaches are concerned with protecting assets that already exist. In this book, Lund, Solhaug and Stølen focus on defensive risk analysis, and more explicitly on a particular approach called CORAS. CORAS is a model-driven method for defensive risk analysis featuring a tool-supported modelling language specially designed to model risks. Their book serves as an introduction to risk analysis in general, including the central concepts and notions in risk analysis and their relations. The authors’ aim is to support risk analysts in conducting structured and stepwise risk analysis. To this end, the book is divided into three main parts. Part I of the book introduces and demonstrates the central concepts and notation used in CORAS, and is largely example-driven. Part II gives a thorough description of the CORAS method and modelling language. After having completed this part of the book, the reader should know enough to use the method in practice. Finally, Part III addresses issues that require special attention and treatment, but still are often encountered in real-life risk analysis and for which CORAS offers helpful advice and assistance. This part also includes a short presentation of the CORAS tool support. The main target groups of the book are IT practitioners and students at graduate or undergraduate level. They will appreciate a concise introduction into the emerging field of risk analysis, supported by a sound methodology, and completed with numerous examples and detailed guidelines.
Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed conference proceedings of the First International Workshop on Risk Assessment and Risk-driven Testing, RISK 2013, held in conjunction with 25th IFIP International Conference on Testing Software and Systems, ICTSS 2013, in Istanbul, Turkey, in November 2013. The revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 13 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on risk analysis, risk modeling and risk-based testing.
This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting distributions for macroeconomic variables can exhibit skewness and fat tails. Several applications are presented that illustrate the practical implementation of the technique including confidence bands around a baseline forecast, the probabilities of global growth falling below a specified threshold, and the impact of alternative fiscal policy reactions functions on macro variability.
This book is the seventh in a series of titles from the National Research Council that addresses the effects of exposure to low dose LET (Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation and human health. Updating information previously presented in the 1990 publication, Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR V, this book draws upon new data in both epidemiologic and experimental research. Ionizing radiation arises from both natural and man-made sources and at very high doses can produce damaging effects in human tissue that can be evident within days after exposure. However, it is the low-dose exposures that are the focus of this book. So-called “late” effects, such as cancer, are produced many years after the initial exposure. This book is among the first of its kind to include detailed risk estimates for cancer incidence in addition to cancer mortality. BEIR VII offers a full review of the available biological, biophysical, and epidemiological literature since the last BEIR report on the subject and develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation.
FOSAD has been one of the foremost educational events established with the goal of disseminating knowledge in the critical area of security in computer systems and networks. Over the years, both the summer school and the book series have represented a reference point for graduate students and young researchers from academia or industry, interested to approach the field, investigate open problems, and follow priority lines of research. This book presents thoroughly revised versions of nine tutorial lectures given by leading researchers during three International Schools on Foundations of Security Analysis and Design, FOSAD, held in Bertinoro, Italy, in September 2012 and 2013. The topics covered in this book include model-based security, automatic verification of secure applications, information flow analysis, cryptographic voting systems, encryption in the cloud, and privacy preservation.
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed conference proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on Risk Assessment and Risk-Driven Quality Assurance, RISK 2016, held in conjunction with ICTSS 2016, in Graz, Austria, in October 2016. The revised 9 full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 11 submissions. They focus on research studying, developing and evaluating innovative techniques, tools, languages and methods risk assessment and risk-driven quality engineering. The papers are organized topical sections: security risk management; security risk analysis; risk-based testing.
This book constitutes the proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Model-Based Safety and Assessment, IMBSA 2020, held in Lisbon, Portugal, in September 2020. The conference was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 15 revised full papers and 4 short papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 30 initial submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on safety models and languages; state-space modeling; dependability analysis process; safety assessment in automotive domain; AI and safety assurance.
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed conference proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Risk Assessment and Risk-driven Testing, RISK 2015, held in conjunction with the OMG Technical Meeting in Berlin, Germany, in June 2015. The revised 8 full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 12 submissions. This workshop addresses systematic approaches that combine risk assessment and testing. Also, the workshop was structured into the three sessions namely Risk Assessment, Risk and Development and Security Testing.
This State-of-the-Art Survey contains a selection of papers representing state-of-the-art results in the engineering of secure software-based Future Internet services and systems, produced by the NESSoS project researchers. The engineering approach of the Network of Excellence NESSoS, funded by the European Commission, is based on the principle of addressing security concerns from the very beginning in all software development phases, thus contributing to reduce the amount of software vulnerabilities and enabling the systematic treatment of security needs through the engineering process. The 15 papers included in this volume deal with the main NESSoS research areas: security requirements for Future Internet services; creating secure service architectures and secure service design; supporting programming environments for secure and composable services; enabling security assurance and integrating former results in a risk-aware and cost-aware software life-cycle.