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In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
This book builds on the lessons of the most recent global financial crisis, especially in Europe and Central Asia and proposes a more effective role for the health sector as part of a safety net function and as a stabilizer for the population during a crisis.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Financing Africa takes stock of Africa's financial systems in light of recent changes in the global financial system --including the greater risk aversion of international investors, a shift in economic and financial powers towards emerging markets and the regulatory reform debate - and the increasing role of technology. Using a wider and more detailed array of data than previous publications, we observe a trend towards financial deepening, more stability and more inclusion leading up to the crisis; serious challenges, however, continue, including limited access to financial services, focus on short-term contracts and hidden fragility, related to weak regulatory frameworks, undue government interference and governance deficiencies. Our policy analysis therefore focuses on (i) expanding outreach, (ii) fostering long-term finance and (iii) improving regulation and supervision. We identify the positive role of innovation and competition, a stronger focus on non-traditional financial service providers, and more emphasis on demand-side constraints as priority areas for policy actions. Specifically, competition from new players outside the banking system, including telecomm companies can increase outreach with technological innovation that changes the economics of retail finance. Moving beyond national stock exchanges that are not sustainable in most African countries towards regional solutions and over-the-counter trades can help foster long-term finance, as can addressing governance challenges in contractual savings institutions, including life insurance companies and pension funds. Finally, there is a need to look beyond supply-side constraints towards users of financial services, focusing more on financial literacy of households and firms, but also consumer protection. In formulating policy messages, we carefully distinguish between different country groupings, differentiating -- among others -- between low- and middle-income and small and larger economies, with a special focus on resource-based economies and post-conflict countries. This book reaches out to both policy makers concerned about a more inclusive and effective financial system and other stakeholders, including practitioners and development partners. With this book we aim to contribute to the on-going financial sector debate on Africa, with the ultimate goal of faster economic development and poverty reduction.
The AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to affect all facets of life throughout the subcontinent. Deaths related to AIDS have driven down the life expectancy rate of residents in Zambia, Kenya, and Uganda with far-reaching implications. This book details the current state of the AIDS epidemic in Africa and what is known about the behaviors that contribute to the transmission of the HIV infection. It lays out what research is needed and what is necessary to design more effective prevention programs.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.