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Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005).
The focus of this edited volume is to identify challenges facing organizations in achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and a new energy economy, and to explore solutions from various sectors of the economy to enable the transition to a zero emissions future. Research presented here is divided into three parts, with an introductory statement on growth and sustainability. Part one discusses strategies towards a sustainable economy under a zero emissions goal. Part two contains industry specific case studies focusing on construction and related activities. Part three is devoted to country specific case studies from the Asia-Pacific region. Each of the chapters address one or more of the following issues: restoration, mitigation, adaptation and/or promoting resilience in the face of climate change as part of achieving a sustainable economy. The volume is multi-disciplinary in nature, drawing on various disciplines in social science, business, environment and policy, and will be of interest to UN development agencies, academic institutions, government policy makers, NGOs and business leaders.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.
Written by one of the leading experts in the field, Paul Ekins, Stopping Climate Change provides a comprehensive overview of what is required to achieve ‘real zero’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, and negative emissions thereafter, which is the only way to stop human- induced climate change. This will require innovation in socio-technical systems, and in human behaviour, on an unprecedented scale. Stopping Climate Change describes the changes required to meet this goal: in technologies, social institutions and individual activities. Paul Ekins examines in detail issues around the supply and demand of energy and materials, and the efficiency of their use. It also analyses greenhouse gas removal technologies, offsetting and geoengineering, and plots the reduction of the non- CO2 greenhouse gas-emitting activities. Having set out the changes required, Ekins considers the economic implications, in terms of both the innovation and investments that are necessary to bring them about, and the effects that these are likely to have on national economies. The evidence presented points clearly to the economic impacts of decarbonisation being positive for the majority of countries, and for the world as a whole, even before considering the benefits of avoided climate change. When the health benefits of stopping the burning of fossil fuels are factored in, the global net benefits of decarbonisation are unequivocal. Drawing on examples from the UK and Europe, but with wider relevance at a global scale, Stopping Climate Change clearly shows how determined policy action at different levels could stop climate change. It will be of great interest to students, scholars and policymakers researching and working in the field of climate change and energy policy.
Climate change is mainly caused by emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels, which provides over 85% of the world’s energy. Strategies for mitigating climate change are connected with handling economic and social activities through their effects on the use of energy. Climate Change Mitigation investigates the costs of mitigation measures in comparison to their benefits, and compares the effects of implementing mitigation measures on various areas such as energy security and energy economy. “For 20 years, diplomats have struggled to make progress on climate change, mostly because global diplomacy is not well-linked to the realities of how nations and firms control emissions and adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. In this excellent book, Dr Yamaguchi has assembled experts to guide the redesign of global policy. The authors underscore how global warming efforts must resonate with other policy goals.” David G. Victor, Director, Laboratory on International Law and Regulation and Professor, University of California San Diego “Climate Change Mitigation clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth or other global problems; however, action to control climate change cannot be delayed.Climate policy is pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy;but it cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, economic growth and resource management, and short term development and long term investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading.” Carlo Carraro,President, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice “The International Energy Agency estimates for every $1 of investment now toward sustainable energy, $4 of future spending can be saved. There is a business case for companies to reduce energy use. Companies in the energy and resource intensive industries must lead the way.” Chad Holliday, Chairman. World Business Council for Sustainable Development and former Chair and CEO, DuPont
Project supported by many international agencies.
This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances.
Time is of the essence. Climate change looms as a malignant force that will reshape our economy and society for generations to come. If we are going to avoid the worst effects of climate change, we are going to need to effectively "decarbonize" the global economy by 2050. This doesn't mean a modest, or even a drastic, improvement in fuel efficiency standards for automobiles. It means 100 percent of the cars on the road being battery-powered or powered by some other non-carbon-emitting powertrain. It means 100 percent of our global electricity needs being met by renewables and other non-carbon-emitting sources such as nuclear power. It means electrifying the global industrials sector and replacing carbon-intensive chemical processes with green alternatives, eliminating scope-one emissions—emissions in production—across all industries, particularly steel, cement, petrochemicals, which are the backbone of the global economy. It means sustainable farming while still feeding a growing global population. Responding to the existential threat of climate change, Michael Lenox and Rebecca Duff propose a radical reconfiguration of the industries contributing the most, and most harmfully, to this planetary crisis. Disruptive innovation and a particular calibration of industry dynamics will be key to this change. The authors analyze precisely what this might look like for specific sectors of the world economy—ranging from agriculture to industrials and building, energy, and transportation—and examine the possible challenges and obstacles to introducing a paradigm shift in each one. With regards to existent business practices and products, how much and what kind of transformation can be achieved? The authors assert that markets are critical to achieving the needed change, and that they operate within a larger scale of institutional rules and norms. Lenox and Duff conclude with an analysis of policy interventions and strategies that could move us toward clean tech and decarbonization by 2050.
This book intends to untangle the Climate Change discussion, keeping it unbiased, factual, scientific, and, above all, unpoliticized. In Paris in December 2015, all members of the United Nations agreed to hold temperature increases below 2°C and as close as possible to 1.5°C. Probably the best we can hope for now is holding increases globally to less than 2.0°C. This could be achieved if the world moves decisively towards zero net emissions by 2050. To absorb the impact of the raised temperatures the UK and other countries will have to spend billions to mitigate impacts. The intention is shedding light on climate change and Net-Zero target strategies. Europe has this summer of 2021 a new European Climate Law. It aims at transforming political promises into a binding legal obligation and send a strong political signal to Europe's partners and businesses. It will write Europe's climate neutrality target for 2050 into law and propose the path to get there. It will give European citizens and businesses the predictability, transparency, and accountability they need for this collective transformation. Opportunities for new business roles will open. Through the European Climate Law, the European Commission proposes a legally binding target of Net-Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The EU Institutions and the Member States are bound to take the necessary measures to meet the EU and national levels. How to use the opportunity? After Covid19, can we recover and improve prosperity? Before the pandemic, sustainability was rising in importance. However, the most devastating event suddenly materialized. The magnitude and impacts of the crisis Covid19 created and its consequences will be a heavy burden in the coming years. Can the world afford to pay attention to climate change and the broader sustainability plan at this time? The idea with the book is that there is no option. We need to embrace the strategy to achieve Net-Zero by 2050 to overcome both the pandemic crisis and achieve carbon neutrality as soon as possible. Massive action and opportunities will be available in most areas of the economy. Delaying further the Net-Zero actions is huge gambling waiting for a crisis that will dwarf Covid19 as a mild event. Climate change is a different type of enemy. The climate events are already accumulating strength in a phenomenal built-up with gradual and cumulative power to deploy multiple attacks with undefendable blows. The pandemic could have a dynamic response measured in weeks, months, and years where actions produce results in weeks. The climate events' time scale has its answer and continued strength creating a fight to last for years, decades and centuries. The impacts in an already fragile economy are unbearable.