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This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Armenia regarding design of fiscal rules and associated fiscal and institutional frameworks. Armenia has made significant strides in enhancing macroeconomic stability over the past two decades. Although Armenia’s public debt remains sustainable, a prolonged adjustment is needed to restore sizable fiscal buffers, warranting an upgrade of the fiscal rule framework. The existing debt-rule-based framework provides insufficient operating guidance to fiscal policy and is not flexible enough to deal with severe economic shocks. Mechanisms to deal with a potential breach of the 60 percent debt ceiling and the 50 percent debt brake are excessively restrictive and need to be overhauled.
This Technical Assistance report reviews South Africa’s tax system and also examines the fiscal regime with a view to generating a sustainable revenue contribution from mining and petroleum in future. Mining has historically been the mainstay of the South African economy. Mineral exports remain the principal contributor to foreign exchange earnings on the current account. South Africa is not yet a significant producer of crude oil or natural gas. Oil and gas exploration nevertheless shows promise. Taxation is far from top of the list in current challenges facing the development of extractive industries in South Africa. The national goal of economic and social transformation in favor of Historically Disadvantaged South Africans has major impact on the mining sector.
The enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Law in 2013, which came into force in 2015, was a major achievement toward strengthening Paraguay’s fiscal framework. Its implementation has nonetheless been complex, with slippages occurring in the first year of its enactment. Concerns have also emerged about the current design of the nominal balance rule, which is perceived as excessively rigid. Given the high volatility of fiscal revenues, the rule translates into an unstable path of public expenditure and does not provide sufficient space for countercyclical policies. Paraguay’s tight fiscal deficit ceiling may also constrain capital expenditure plans, possibly to the detriment of overall economic development needs. The authorities have decided to replace the nominal balance rule with a structural balance rule, starting in 2019, to achieve a more stable path of public expenditure and better link it to the medium-term objectives of fiscal policy. The government is also considering modifications of the Fiscal Responsibility Law in order to enhance public investment without damaging the credibility of the rule-based framework.
This technical assistance report on Malaysia highlights that the mission aimed to support the Malaysian authorities in improving government finance statistics (GFS) for decision making. The mission reviewed the progress in the implementation of the accounting project to introduce accrual financial reporting standards at the federal government level. The mission identified considerable potential for collaboration between Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) with respect to fiscal data collection for other general government sublayers and public nonfinancial corporations. The mission concluded that the general ledger structure is sufficient to produce GFS on both cash and an accrual basis. The mission suggested that collaboration between MOF and DOSM going forward would be necessary to ensure data consistency and to facilitate the explanation of remaining minor differences to users. The mission recommends that the authorities verify the causes for inconsistencies based on recent annual data, and to formally align the collaboration between the institutions.
This Technical Assistance report assesses the state of public investment management (PIM) in Malawi. Measured against the overall strength of its PIM institutions, Malawi performs broadly in line with other low-income developing countries and sub-Saharan African countries, but less well than better-performing emerging markets. Measures of institutional strength show how well Malawi rates in terms of its existing laws and regulations, as well as the formal guidelines and instructions issued by the government to implement these laws. The public investment management assessment diagnostic tool also measures how effectively, in practice, the government implements and enforces these laws and regulations. On this measure of effectiveness, Malawi performs relatively poorly. Looking at individual indicators of PIM, Malawi’s performance is mixed.
This Technical Assistance report on Ukraine discusses a more sustainable fiscal consolidation. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted a broad Public Financial Management System Reform Strategy, paving the way to decisive action in critical areas including medium-term budgeting, analysis and management of fiscal risks, and public investment management. Fiscal policy in Ukraine has been hampered by the lack of a medium-term orientation for the State Budget. Medium-term macroeconomic forecasts are regularly produced, but these are not well integrated with budget planning, which remains mostly incremental and annual in scope. Recent reform initiatives have prioritized the development of a medium-term budget framework to the forefront of the reform agenda; however, additional steps are required for it to be fully implemented. Ukraine has undertaken a range of reforms in public investment management, designed to tackle some of its weaker institutions. Nevertheless, the strategic planning process remains unfit for purpose and does not facilitate prioritization of capital investment projects.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations for supporting implementation of the expenditure rule through public financial management reforms in Brazil. To address rigidities in the budget and to create more fiscal space, authorities need to establish processes to build flexibility and improve efficiency. These include reviewing mandatory expenditures and indexation practices. Other options include a rolling program of spending reviews for large and fast-growing programs and efficiency dividends on ministries’ operational expenses. Authorities also need to begin to develop a medium-term budget framework to support strategic decision making.
This report discusses implementation of the compliance risk model (CRM) by Moldova’s tax department. The CRM has shown encouraging results in 2011, in terms of extra revenue. However, the assessment reports that for long-lasting impact, the model requires further improvement in taxpayer services, audit, tax fraud investigations, information technology, and the value-added tax refund system. The compliance plan for 2012 involves implementing measures within the segment of wealthy individuals.
Malta meets a large number of the principles of the Fiscal Transparency Code at good or advanced level. Based on the assessment made in this report, Malta meets the good or advanced practice on 21 out of 35 principles in the Code. One principle, related to natural resources, was not relevant to Malta and therefore not assessed. Malta meets the basic practice on a further 12 principles (Table 0.1). Practices are stronger in the areas of fiscal reporting and fiscal forecasting and budgeting, where Malta is subject to and complies with the comprehensive reporting framework established by the European Union. Practices are generally weaker in the area of fiscal risk analysis and management, notably oversight of public corporations.