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The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.
The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
The report highlights the important links between good governance on a level legal and regulatory playing field, and the ability of investment to stimulate growth. Investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been strong over the last two decades in comparison with Latin America and Eastern Europe. However, in the oil exporting countries, it has been primarily supported by large and expanding public investments. Oil importers, in contrast, have shown more strength in private investment, which has increased in recent years. A concern with reliance on public investment is that in economies with weak governance there is no evidence that public investment stimulates growth. In contrast, in countries with an adequate level of protection of property rights and legal institutions, public investment is strongly linked to growth. The report also makes a strong case for private investment in services and manufacturing as engines of job creation and income growth in the region.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
This paper documents the main themes covered in two seminars (December 2011 and September 2012) on monetary policy and implementation at the IMF—Middle East Center for Economics and Finance, and includes country case studies. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and swings in cross-border capital flows, operational frameworks have become more flexible, and liquidity management has impacted the relationship between the policy rate corridor and market rates. The balance sheet structure of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows differences between oil exporters and others, while a few countries have exhibited notable changes since early 2011. Collateral now has a significant financial stability function. Although only one MENA country is part of the G20, implementation of the Basel III bank capital adequacy and liquidity rules will most likely impact banks’ way of doing business in MENA countries, even if indirectly.
Using cases on individual countries, Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa offers diverse theoretical and empirical evidence on a variety of issues facing policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders in the region.
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.