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My interest in microsimulation started to develop when I was exposed to the works of Guy Orcutt and his associates on microsimulation of households in the USA, and those of Gunnar Eliasson and his associates on simulatio~ of Swedish firms. Their approaches promised the exciting possibility to represent an by simulating the behaviour of individual microeconomic entire economic system units on a computer. The construction of a large scale microsimulation model seemed to be a worthwhile adventure which could yield much more detailed results than existing models. It was also evident that microsimulation of firms is a relatively underdeveloped area, in spite of the large number of operational microsimulation models of households in the USA and Europe. Developing the computer implementation has been an integral part of the research. Translating initially vague ideas into mathematical formulae and subsequently into a structured computer language provides a testing ground for 10Bical consistency of ideas. When writing this book I have purposefully abstained from describing the computer program and dedicated solution algorithms. The reason is that the book is primarily directed towards readers interested in economics and therefore uses the language of economics and not that of computer science. The simulation model has been programmed for the personal computer in Turbo Pascal. Sophisticated memory management techniques have lifted constraints on the number of firms which can be simulated on the PC.
Applications and methods of state of the art microsimulation modelling.
Microsimulation Modelling involves the application of simulation methods to micro data for the purposes of evaluating the effectiveness and improving the design of public policy. The field has been applied to many different policies within both government and academia. This handbook describes and discusses the main issues within the field.
'Practical Microsimulation Modelling' brings together a description and examples of the main methods used in microsimulation modelling used in the field of income distribution analysis. It is structured to develop and use the different types of models used in the field, with a focus on household targeted policy.
The focus of this book is the modeling of the location of economic activities, measured in terms of employment, in land-use and transportation systems. These measures are key inputs to models at intra-urban scales of the flows of persons and goods for both urban and transport planning. The models described here are either components of comprehensive models or specialist studies. Economic activities can be defined in terms of jobs or private-sector firms and public service organisations. Different levels of aggregation are used both in terms of organisational and geographical dimensions. In the case of firms and public organizations, a distinction can be made between the organizations themselves and corresponding establishments. For urban simulation models, it is the location of establishments that is important. At the more coarse levels of aggregation that are usually used in comprehensive models, firms and organizations are aggregated into sectors.
This book covers some important topics in the construction of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and examines use of these models for the analysis of economic policies, their properties, and their implications. Readers will find explanation and discussion of the theoretical structure and practical application of several model typologies, including dynamic, stochastic, micro-macro, and simulation models, as well as different closure rules and policy experiments. The presentation of applications to various country and problem-specific case studies serves to provide an informed and clearly articulated summary of the state of the art and the most important methodological advancements in the field of policy modeling within the framework of general equilibrium analysis. The book is an outcome of a recent workshop of the Italian Development Economists Association attended by a group of leading practitioners involved in the generation of CGE models and research on modeling the economy and policy making. It will be of interest to researchers, professional economists, graduate students, and knowledgeable policy makers.
Los desarrollos en el ámbito de la investigación sobre la evaluación de políticas públicas están experimentando actualmente un gran avance. En este contexto, las técnicas de microsimulación -basadas en la representación del comportamiento de los individuos frente a cambios reales o hipotéticos en su entorno económico e institucional- han adquirido particular relevancia por su capacidad para evaluar a priori diferentes escenarios y facilitar la toma de decisiones. Las técnicas de simulación se realizan con modelos de absoluta precisión y exactitud que permiten estudiar y predecir el impacto y los efectos de una política sobre una muestra de individuos, familias o empresas representativa de la población total. Este libro presenta la microsimulación como técnica de evaluación de las políticas públicas, al mismo tiempo que propone una revisión razonada de los recientes avances. Una conclusión común es que, gracias a un modelo de microsimulación, es posible identificar la mejor política de redistribución posible (en el sentido de maximizar una determinada función de bienestar social). De manera general, mediante el uso de esta técnica es posible hacer complementarios los enfoques macro de equilibrio económico general y micro de simulación de los comportamientos individuales. La presente publicación ofrece una herramienta de referencia a investigadores, académicos, políticos y analistas.
Taxation and Development highlights the importance of better understanding the ways in which taxes and expenditure are linked. Focusing on developing countries, the book argues for a broader approach to the topic, with a secondary focus on developing a
Graham Clarke and Moss Madden 1. 1 Background In the mid 1990s there were a number of papers in regional science that questioned the relevance and purpose of the entire sub-discipline. Bailly and Coffey (1994) for example, talked of 'regional science in crisis'. They argued that there were two fundamental problems. First, regional science was too theoretical in the sense that many of its products were models that could neither be calibrated (too complex) or operationalised (too abstract) in the real world. They suggested that regional science had not sufficiently demonstrated that it can address real-world problems and subsequently lacked a focus on relevant policy issues. Second, they argued that regional science had become too narrow in focus and had moved away too far from real people and their daily concerns or struggles in life. This was not the first time we had witnessed these sorts of arguments, both from outside the discipline and from within. Sayer (1976) was perhaps the first to argue for a shift from a model-based focus in regional science to one based on political economy. Breheny (1984) criticised the 'deep ignorance among regional scientists of the nature of practical policy making and implementation' (see also Rodwin (1987) for similar views in the mid 1980s). Such self-reflection is a feature of many disciplines as they reach maturity. There have been many similar reflections in geography (Johnston 1996, Barnes 1996) and economics (see the collection in the January edition of the Economic Journal 1991).
Generate and Analyze Multi-Level Data Spatial microsimulation involves the generation, analysis, and modeling of individual-level data allocated to geographical zones. Spatial Microsimulation with R is the first practical book to illustrate this approach in a modern statistical programming language. Get Insight into Complex Behaviors The book progresses from the principles underlying population synthesis toward more complex issues such as household allocation and using the results of spatial microsimulation for agent-based modeling. This equips you with the skills needed to apply the techniques to real-world situations. The book demonstrates methods for population synthesis by combining individual and geographically aggregated datasets using the recent R packages ipfp and mipfp. This approach represents the "best of both worlds" in terms of spatial resolution and person-level detail, overcoming issues of data confidentiality and reproducibility. Implement the Methods on Your Own Data Full of reproducible examples using code and data, the book is suitable for students and applied researchers in health, economics, transport, geography, and other fields that require individual-level data allocated to small geographic zones. By explaining how to use tools for modeling phenomena that vary over space, the book enhances your knowledge of complex systems and empowers you to provide evidence-based policy guidance.