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This book is a practical, step-by-step introduction to microsimulation in demography. It shows how to use Modgen, a powerful and free microsimulation platform built by Statistics Canada. The authors' hands-on explanation of model development will help readers make their own. The book teaches how to create and run a simple cohort model with a single fixed-rate event, and builds upon this concept. It introduces how to develop both a single state life table as well as a multiple increment-decrement life table using the tools provided by Modgen. The authors illustrate how to easily upgrade an existing model by adding new modules and new dimensions as determinants of a risk already modeled. The integration of a fertility module and a base population allows the user to bring new actors into the simulation and transform a cohort-based model into a population-based one. The final addition of an international migration module allows the user to accomplish fully open, multi-regional projections. This accessible introduction will be of interest to researchers and students in population studies and other social sciences. It will also appeal to anyone interested in the computational modeling of population dynamics.
Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.
This book is a practical guide on how to design, create and validate a spatial microsimulation model. These models are becoming more popular as academics and policy makers recognise the value of place in research and policy making. Recent spatial microsimulation models have been used to analyse health and social disadvantage for small areas; and to look at the effect of policy change for small areas. This provides a powerful analysis tool for researchers and policy makers. This book covers preparing the data for spatial microsimulation; a number of methods for both static and dynamic spatial microsimulation models; validation of the models to ensure the outputs are reasonable; and the future of spatial microsimulation. The book will be an essential handbook for any researcher or policy maker looking to design and create a spatial microsimulation model. This book will also be useful to those policy makers who are commissioning a spatial microsimulation model, or looking to commission work using a spatial microsimulation model, as it provides information on the different methods in a non-technical way.
Applications and methods of state of the art microsimulation modelling.
Agent-Based Computational Demography (ABCD) aims at starting a new stream of research among social scientists whose interests lie in understanding demographic behaviour. The book takes a micro-demographic (agent-based) perspective and illustrates the potentialities of computer simulation as an aid in theory building. The chapters of the book, written by leading experts either in demography or in agent-based modelling, address several key questions. Why do we need agent-based computational demography? How can ABCD be applied to the study of migrations, family demography, and historical demography? What are the peculiarities of agent-based models as applied to the demography of human populations? ABCD is of interest to all scientists interested in studying demographic behaviour, as well as to computer scientists and modellers who are looking for a promising field of application.
Generate and Analyze Multi-Level Data Spatial microsimulation involves the generation, analysis, and modeling of individual-level data allocated to geographical zones. Spatial Microsimulation with R is the first practical book to illustrate this approach in a modern statistical programming language. Get Insight into Complex Behaviors The book progresses from the principles underlying population synthesis toward more complex issues such as household allocation and using the results of spatial microsimulation for agent-based modeling. This equips you with the skills needed to apply the techniques to real-world situations. The book demonstrates methods for population synthesis by combining individual and geographically aggregated datasets using the recent R packages ipfp and mipfp. This approach represents the "best of both worlds" in terms of spatial resolution and person-level detail, overcoming issues of data confidentiality and reproducibility. Implement the Methods on Your Own Data Full of reproducible examples using code and data, the book is suitable for students and applied researchers in health, economics, transport, geography, and other fields that require individual-level data allocated to small geographic zones. By explaining how to use tools for modeling phenomena that vary over space, the book enhances your knowledge of complex systems and empowers you to provide evidence-based policy guidance.
This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity.
Selected and revised papers from the conference on "Microsimulation in government policy and forecasting" held in Portland, Maine in July 1997; the volume also contains invited contributions by experts in the field, and a separate part on practical microsimulation models--Preface.
This open access book provides a step-by-step overview on how to build a microsimulation model with SAS. It shows how to convert an already existing multistate projection by age, sex, education and region into a microsimulation model. Two new dimensions are then added, either the labor force participation and the sector of activity, and/or some examples of outputs and alternative scenarios that would not be possible with standard demographic methods. The book also describes how to adapt the model for other countries or other purposes. It also provides details on how to extend and adapt the model for other purposes as well as other use of microsimulation with SAS. The book suggests codes that are easy to understand, so they can be replicated or adapted for other purposes. As such, this book provides a great resource for people with beginner to intermediate knowledge in SAS.
In sub-Saharan Africa, older people make up a relatively small fraction of the total population and are supported primarily by family and other kinship networks. They have traditionally been viewed as repositories of information and wisdom, and are critical pillars of the community but as the HIV/AIDS pandemic destroys family systems, the elderly increasingly have to deal with the loss of their own support while absorbing the additional responsibilities of caring for their orphaned grandchildren. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa explores ways to promote U.S. research interests and to augment the sub-Saharan governments' capacity to address the many challenges posed by population aging. Five major themes are explored in the book such as the need for a basic definition of "older person," the need for national governments to invest more in basic research and the coordination of data collection across countries, and the need for improved dialogue between local researchers and policy makers. This book makes three major recommendations: 1) the development of a research agenda 2) enhancing research opportunity and implementation and 3) the translation of research findings.