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In the last decade of the 20th century, there has been great progress in the physics of earthquake generation; that is, the introduction of laboratory-based fault constitutive laws as a basic equation governing earthquake rupture, quantitative description of tectonic loading driven by plate motion, and a microscopic approach to study fault zone processes. The fault constitutive law plays the role of an interface between microscopic processes in fault zones and macroscopic processes of a fault system, and the plate motion connects diverse crustal activities with mantle dynamics. An ambitious challenge for us is to develop realistic computer simulation models for the complete earthquake process on the basis of microphysics in fault zones and macro-dynamics in the crust-mantle system. Recent advances in high performance computer technology and numerical simulation methodology are bringing this vision within reach. The book consists of two parts and presents a cross-section of cutting-edge research in the field of computational earthquake physics. Part I includes works on microphysics of rupture and fault constitutive laws, and dynamic rupture, wave propagation and strong ground motion. Part II covers earthquake cycles, crustal deformation, plate dynamics, and seismicity change and its physical interpretation. Topics covered in Part I range from the microscopic simulation and laboratory studies of rock fracture and the underlying mechanism for nucleation and catastrophic failure to the development of theoretical models of frictional behaviors of faults; as well as the simulation studies of dynamic rupture processes and seismic wave propagation in a 3-D heterogeneous medium, to the case studies of strong ground motions from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and seismic hazard estimation for Cascadian subduction zone earthquakes.
The first of a two-part work, this volume focuses on microscopic simulation, scaling physics, dynamic rapture and wave propagation, earthquake generation, cycle and seismic pattern. Topics covered range from numerical and theoretical studies of crack propagation, developments in finite difference methods for modeling faults, long time scale simulation of interacting fault systems, and modeling of crustal deformation through to mantle convection.
In the last decade of the 20th century, there has been great progress in the physics of earthquake generation; that is, the introduction of laboratory-based fault constitutive laws as a basic equation governing earthquake rupture, quantitative description of tectonic loading driven by plate motion, and a microscopic approach to study fault zone processes. The fault constitutive law plays the role of an interface between microscopic processes in fault zones and macroscopic processes of a fault system, and the plate motion connects diverse crustal activities with mantle dynamics. An ambitious challenge for us is to develop realistic computer simulation models for the complete earthquake process on the basis of microphysics in fault zones and macro-dynamics in the crust-mantle system. Recent advances in high performance computer technology and numerical simulation methodology are bringing this vision within reach. The book consists of two parts and presents a cross-section of cutting-edge research in the field of computational earthquake physics. Part I includes works on microphysics of rupture and fault constitutive laws, and dynamic rupture, wave propagation and strong ground motion. Part II covers earthquake cycles, crustal deformation, plate dynamics, and seismicity change and its physical interpretation. Topics in Part II range from the 3-D simulations of earthquake generation cycles and interseismic crustal deformation associated with plate subduction to the development of new methods for analyzing geophysical and geodetical data and new simulation algorithms for large amplitude folding and mantle convection with viscoelastic/brittle lithosphere, as well as a theoretical study of accelerated seismic release on heterogeneous faults, simulation of long-range automaton models of earthquakes, and various approaches to earthquake predicition based on underlying physical and/or statistical models for seismicity change.
Exciting developments in earthquake science have benefited from new observations, improved computational technologies, and improved modeling capabilities. Designing models of the earthquake generation process is a grand scientific challenge due to the complexity of phenomena and range of scales involved from microscopic to global. Such models provide powerful new tools for the study of earthquake precursory phenomena and the earthquake cycle. Through workshops, collaborations and publications, the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES) aims to develop realistic supercomputer simulation models for the complete earthquake generation process, thus providing a "virtual laboratory" to probe earthquake behavior. Part II of the book embraces dynamic rupture and wave propagation, computational environment and algorithms, data assimilation and understanding, and applications of models to earthquakes. This part also contains articles on the computational approaches and challenges of constructing earthquake models.
Exciting developments in earthquake science have benefited from new observations, improved computational technologies, and improved modeling capabilities. Designing models of the earthquake generation process is a grand scientific challenge due to the complexity of phenomena and range of scales involved from microscopic to global. Such models provide powerful new tools for the study of earthquake precursory phenomena and the earthquake cycle. Through workshops, collaborations and publications, the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES) aims to develop realistic supercomputer simulation models for the complete earthquake generation process, thus providing a "virtual laboratory" to probe earthquake behavior. Part II of the book embraces dynamic rupture and wave propagation, computational environment and algorithms, data assimilation and understanding, and applications of models to earthquakes. This part also contains articles on the computational approaches and challenges of constructing earthquake models.
As our society confronts the impacts of globalization and global systemic risks—such as financial contagion, climate change, and epidemics—what can studies of the past tell us about our present and future? How Worlds Collapse offers case studies of societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmic adversity. The authors in this volume find commonalities between past civilizations and our current society, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can inform decision-making today. While today’s world presents unique challenges, many mechanisms, dynamics, and fundamental challenges to the foundations of civilization have been consistent throughout history—highlighting essential lessons for the future.
This collection of research and review papers addresses the question of structural evolution during deformation to high strains and the physical properties of rocks that have been affected by high-strain zones. The discussions range from natural examples at outcrop to microscopic studies. They include experiments and numerical models based on the active processes in high-strain zones as well as studies on the physical properties of highly strained rocks in the field and laboratory. Specific questions addressed include magnetotelluric imaging of faults, magnetic fabrics, fabric development, seismic properties of highly strained rocks, change of rheology with strain, influence of melt on the localization of deformation, the relationship between deformation and metamorphism as well as new methods in the analysis of deformation. The book is aimed at an interdisciplinary group of readers interested in the effects of high strain in rocks.
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 120. Earthquakes in urban centers are capable of causing enormous damage. The January 16, 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake was only a magnitude 6.9 event and yet produced an estimated $200 billion loss. Despite an active earthquake prediction program in Japan, this event was a complete surprise. Similar scenarios are possible in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and other urban centers around the Pacific plate boundary. The development of forecast or prediction methodologies for these great damaging earthquakes has been complicated by the fact that the largest events repeat at irregular intervals of hundreds to thousands of years, resulting in a limited historical record that has frustrated phenomenological studies. The papers in this book describe an emerging alternative approach, which is based on a new understanding of earthquake physics arising from the construction and analysis of numerical simulations. With these numerical simulations, earthquake physics now can be investigated in numerical laboratories. Simulation data from numerical experiments can be used to develop theoretical understanding that can be subsequently applied to observed data. These methods have been enabled by the information technology revolution, in which fundamental advances in computing and communications are placing vast computational resources at our disposal.