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In late 2007, the U.S. and Mexican governments unveiled the Merida Initiative. A 3-year, $1.4 billion counternarcotics assistance program, the Merida Initiative is designed to combat the drug-fueled violence that has ravaged Mexico of late. The initiative aims to strengthen the Mexican police and military, permitting them to take the offensive in the fight against Mexico's powerful cartels. As currently designed, however, the Merida Initiative is unlikely to have a meaningful, long-term impact in restraining the drug trade and drug-related violence. Focussing largely on security, enforcement, and interdiction issues, it pays comparatively little attention to the deeper structural problems that fuel these destructive phenomena. These problems, ranging from official corruption to U.S. domestic drug consumption, have so far frustrated Mexican attempts to rein in the cartels, and will likely hinder the effectiveness of the Merida Initiative as well.
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Over 3,100 total pages ... CONTENTS: The Nexus of Extremism and Trafficking: Scourge of the World or So Much Hype? Crossing Our Red Lines About Partner Engagement in Mexico Two Faces of Attrition: Analysis of a Mismatched Strategy against Mexican and Central American Drug Traffickers Combating Drug Trafficking: Variation in the United States' Military Cooperation with Colombia and Mexico Ungoverned Spaces in Mexico: Autodefensas, Failed States, and the War on Drugs in Michoacan U.S. SOUTHWEST BORDER SECURITY: AN OPERATIONAL APPROACH TWO WARS: OVERSEAS CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS AND THE WAR ON DRUGS WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM THE WAR ON DRUGS? AN ASSESSMENT OF MEXICO’S COUNTERNARCOTICS STRATEGY THE DIVERSIFICATION OF MEXICAN TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS AND ITS EFFECTS ON SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN THE UNITED STATES Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations: Matching Strategy to Threat THE IMPACTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON CITIZEN SECURITY BEHAVIOR IN MEXICO Combating Transnational Organized Crime: Strategies and Metrics for the Threat Beyond Merida: A Cooperative Counternarcotics Strategy for the 21st Century MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS AND TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS, A NEW ALLIANCE? THE EFFECTIVE BUSINESS PRACTICES OF MEXICAN DRUG TRAFFICKING ORGANIZATIONS (DTOs) DRUG TRAFFICKING AND POLICE CORRUPTION: A COMPARISON OF COLOMBIA AND MEXICO CRISIS IN MEXICO: ASSESSING THE MÉRIDA INITIATIVE AND ITS IMPACT ON US-MEXICAN SECURITY BORDER SECURITY: IS IT ACHIEVABLE ON THE RIO GRANDE? Borders and Borderlands in the Americas PREVENTING BULK CASH AND WEAPONS SMUGGLING INTO MEXICO: ESTABLISHING AN OUTBOUND POLICY ON THE SOUTHWEST BORDER FOR CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTON DRUG TRAFFICKING WITHIN MEXICO: A LAW ENFORCEMENT ISSUE OR INSURGENCY? USSOCOM’s Role in Addressing Human Trafficking Southwest Border Violence: Issues in Identifying and Measuring Spillover Violence National Security Threats at the U.S.-Mexico Border Merida Initiative: Proposed U.S. Anticrime and Counterdrug Assistance for Mexico and Central America COCAINE TRAFFICKING THROUGH WEST AFRICA: THE HYBRIDIZED ILLICIT NETWORK AS AN EMERGING TRANSNATIONAL THREAT ORGANIZED CRIME AND TERRORIST ACTIVITY IN MEXICO, 1999-2002 Is the Narco-violence in Mexico an Insurgency? THE USE OF TERRORISM BY DRUG TRAFFICKING ORGANIZATIONS’ PARAMILITARY GROUPS IN MEXICO An Approach to the 40-Year Drug War EXPLOITING WEAKNESSES: AN APPROACH TO COUNTER CARTEL STRATEGY MEXICO AND THE COCAINE EPIDEMIC: THE NEW COLOMBIA OR A NEW PROBLEM? EXPLAINING VARIATION IN THE APPREHENSION OF MEXICAN DRUG TRAFFICKING CARTEL LEADERS Drug Cartels and Gangs in Mexico and Central America: A View through the Lens of Counterinsurgency The COIN Approach to Mexican Drug Cartels: Square Peg in a Round Hole Counterinsurgency and the Mexican Drug War THE UNTOLD STORY OF MEXICO’S RISE AND EVENTUAL MONOPOLY OF THE METHAMPHETAMINE TRADE Competing with the Cartels: How Mexico's Government Can Reduce Organized Crime's Economic Grip on its People FIGHTING CORRUPTION IN MEXICO: LESSONS FROM COLOMBIA Defeating Mexico's Drug Trafficking Organizations: The Range of Military Operations in Mexico Drug Trafficking as a Lethal Regional Threat in Central America What Explains the Patterns of Diversification in Drug Trafficking Organizations Evaluating the Impact of Drug Trafficking Organizations on the Stability of the Mexican State
Since Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the drug cartels in Dec. 2006, more than 35,000 Mexicans have died due to narco-violence. This monograph examines whether the various Mexican drug trafficking organizations are insurgents or organized criminal elements. Mexican narco-violence and its affiliated gang violence have spread across Mexico’s southern border into Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Additionally, the narco-violence is already responsible for the deaths of American citizens on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, and the potential for increased spillover violence is a major concern. This monograph argues that the Mexican drug cartels are transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) that pose a national security threat to the regional state actors; however, they are not an insurgency for four reasons. First, none of the cartels have the political aim or capability to overthrow the Mexican government. Second, the various TCOs are competing criminal organizations with approximately 90 percent of the violence being cartel on cartel. For example, the violence in the city of Juárez is largely the result of the fighting between the local Juárez cartel and the Sinaloa cartel for control of one of the primary smuggling routes into the U.S.. Third, the cartels’ use of violence and coercion has turned popular support against them thus denying them legitimacy. Fourth, although the cartels do control zones of impunity within their areas of influence, the Mexican government has captured, killed, and extradited kingpins from every major TCO.
In the study of U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, there exists a fundamental challenge to counterdrug operations; the underlying socioeconomic foundation of narco-trafficking. I argue that the historical and current practice of merely relying on military and law enforcement aid is not sufficient when it comes to addressing this socioeconomic foundation of narco-trafficking and transnational crime organizations (TCOs). Using a rational policy model, the analysis evaluates the Mérida Initiative's effectiveness at inhibiting drug trafficking operations and decreasing drug-related violence. After demonstrating the ineffectiveness of current counterdrugs policies, this project evaluates three options for future U.S.-Mexico security cooperation utilizing the same criteria used to evaluate the Mérida Initiative. The prerogative of this project is to demonstrate the need for a comprehensive plan that both addresses bilateral security needs as well as the underlying social foundation of narco-trafficking in order to be successful in the ongoing Mexican Narco-War.
The primary thrust of the monograph is to explain the linkage of contemporary criminal street gangs (that is, the gang phenomenon or third generation gangs) to insurgency in terms f the instability it wreaks upon government and the concomitant challenge to state sovereignty. Although there are differences between gangs and insurgents regarding motives and modes of operations, this linkage infers that gang phenomena are mutated forms of urban insurgency. In these terms, these "new" nonstate actors must eventually seize political power in order to guarantee the freedom of action and the commercial environment they want. The common denominator that clearly links the gang phenomenon to insurgency is that the third generation gangs' and insurgents' ultimate objective is to depose or control the governments of targeted countries. As a consequence, the "Duck Analogy" applies. Third generation gangs look like ducks, walk like ducks, and act like ducks - a peculiar breed, but ducks nevertheless! This monograph concludes with recommendations for the United States and other countries to focus security and assistance responses at the strategic level. The intent is to help leaders achieve strategic clarity and operate more effectively in the complex politically dominated, contemporary global security arena.
On Oct. 22, 2007, the U.S. and Mexico announced the Mérida Initiative (MI), a package of U.S. counter-drug and anti-crime assistance for Mexico and Central America that would begin in FY 2008 and last through FY 2010. Contents of this report: (1) Introduction; (2) Development of the MI; (3) Funding the MI: FY 2008-10: Mexico; Central America; The Caribbean; (4) Other MI Legislation in the 111th Congress; (5) Status of Implementation; (6) Policy Issues: Is MI the Right Drug Control Approach?; Monitoring Progress; Interagency Coordination; Role of the DoD; U.S. Pledges Under the MI; Mexico Policy Issues; (7) Beyond the MI: The FY 2011 Request: U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation. Illustrations.