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Spurred by strong U.S. growth and rising vaccination rates, the economy is rebounding. The government has successfully maintained external, financial, and fiscal stability despite the deepest recession in decades. Nonetheless, Mexico is bearing a very heavy humanitarian, social, and economic cost from COVID-19, including over half a million excess deaths, sizable under-employment, an increase in already-high levels of poverty, and learning losses for the young. Real income per capita is continuing its long-run divergence from the U.S., while additional challenges are emerging from technological shifts and climate change.
The authorities responded quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 crisis and the economy is recovering. COVID-19 cases are well below the 2020 peak and vaccination is progressing. The exit from the remaining COVID-related policy support needs to be carefully managed and the Vision 2030 reform agenda continued.
After over two decades of unprecedented economic expansion, Panama’s economy contracted sharply in 2020 amidst challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. As conditions rapidly deteriorated, Panama requested financial support under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 100 percent of quota equivalent to US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.4 billion) to address immediate balance of payments needs, which the IMF Executive Board approved on April 15, 2020. Subsequently, uncertainties magnified, and Panama requested a two-year arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.9 billion), as insurance against extreme external shocks, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 19, 2021.
Peru entered the pandemic with a sustained track record of implementing very strong policies amid very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks, but was hit hard by the pandemic, which took a heavy toll in terms of human lives and economic output. Tensions between executive and legislative powers continue to affect institutional cohesion, but new general elections will be held in April-June 2021. The IMF Executive Board approved a two-year FCL arrangement in the amount of US$11 billion (600 percent of quota) on May 28, 2020.
Greece entered the pandemic with an unfinished recovery, but the country has demonstrated resilience in facing COVID-19. The economy contracted by 8.2 percent in 2020, better than expected given Greece’s high dependence on tourism and pre-existing vulnerabilities. The government provided among the largest on-budget fiscal stimuli in the euro zone and supervisory and ECB accommodation shielded the banking sector and kept financing conditions highly accommodative. Despite the pandemic, reforms progressed in a number of areas, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years.
A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.