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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.
Using state-of-the-art econometric tools, this book examines the implications of international fragmentation of production for the performance of the Japanese manufacturing industry.The impact of the ongoing process of international fragmentation of production and outsourcing has become a highly contentious issue in developed economies such as the US and Japan. Concerns about deindustrialisation and large-scale job losses - 'the export of jobs' have generated a political backlash against multinationals and globalisation. Using detailed data from Japanese multinationals this book rigorously analyses the Japanese experience and compares and contrasts it with the experience of US manufacturing. The study finds no empirical evidence that expansion of multinational activities in foreign countries produces job losses in the home country. Indeed, when demand induced indirectemployment effects are taken into account the increased profitability of Japanese firms is likely to have increased overall employment in Japan. However, the shift of labour intensive activities to low wage economies associated with the international fragmentation of production generates adjustment pressures and a structural shift in favour of skilled workers in Japanese manufacturing.
Value chain trade has challenged economic implications of conventional trade statistics and transformed bilateral trade relationships into multilaterals. Conventional trade statistics exaggerate trade volumes and bilateral trade imbalances. It is imperative to measure trade in value-added and examine trade relations in the context of global value chains. This book is a collection of research papers on new approaches to measure trade in value added and the role of global value chains in modern international trade. It introduces the input output method for measuring trade and a direct approach for measuring the domestic value added of the People's Republic of China — the center of global assembly. In addition, it shows how to analyze trade relations in the context of global value chains.
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift beyond production. The report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically. It is co-published by the WTO, the Asian Development Bank, the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at the University of International Business and Economics, the Institute of Developing Economies, and the China Development Research Foundation.
In this book, Radlo increases understanding of offshoring, outsourcing and international production fragmentation, and explains the impact of this phenomenon on the economies and enterprises. Key features include a comprehensive theoretical explanation of offshoring and outsourcing at both macroeconomic and microeconomic level, as well as an explanation of practical consequences of the mentioned phenomenon for the development of the global economy, national economies, concrete industries and enterprises. Unlike other publications, which are often characterized by narrow management or a macroeconomic approach to the analysis of offshoring and outsourcing, Radlo's text offers real insight into the global impact of production fragmentation.
This authoritative new collection presents a selection of previously published seminal articles that have led to the development of intra-industry trade theory and empirical research. Parts I and II cover the pioneering research in the 1960s and a number of models of intra-industry trade that were developed from 1979 to the present day. Parts III and IV look at the empirical research problems in the choice of measure of intra-industry trade and empirical studies that seek to identify the nature of this trade. Part V deals with the role of the multinational corporation and part VI completes the collection with articles that look at extensions to asset markets and applications to other problems such as the geography of trade and rules of origin. Intra-Industry Trade will be an invaluable source of reference to all international trade economists and libraries specialising in this area.
Globalisation is a timely and controversial topic. Against the chorus of globalisation’s proponents and detractors, the authors propose an approach for measuring globalisation and its consequences. Undertaking a comprehensive review of the literature on globalisation and using data from the MGI and KOF indices, the well-respected authors build a framework for defining globalisation and analyzing the relationships among economic, political, and social variables.
In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.