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An update of one of the most trusted books on constructing and analyzing actuarial models Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models, Third Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) qualification examinations. This update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events. This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Features of the Third Edition include: Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there is more than one parameter The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that have appeared on previous SOA and CAS examinations. Intriguing examples from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with conducting loss model analysis. Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS preliminary examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries, graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and risk models in their everyday work. To explore our additional offerings in actuarial exam preparation visit www.wiley.com/go/actuarialexamprep.
The material in this book was first presented as a one-semester course in Relia bility Theory and Preventive Maintenance for M.Sc. students of the Industrial Engineering Department of Ben Gurion University in the 1997/98 and 1998/99 academic years. Engineering students are mainly interested in the applied part of this theory. The value of preventive maintenance theory lies in the possibility of its imple mentation, which crucially depends on how we handle statistical reliability data. The very nature of the object of reliability theory - system lifetime - makes it extremely difficult to collect large amounts of data. The data available are usu ally incomplete, e.g. heavily censored. Thus, the desire to make the course material more applicable led me to include in the course topics such as mod eling system lifetime distributions (Chaps. 1,2) and the maximum likelihood techniques for lifetime data processing (Chap. 3). A course in the theory of statistics is aprerequisite for these lectures. Stan dard courses usually pay very little attention to the techniques needed for our purpose. A short summary of them is given in Chap. 3, including widely used probability plotting. Chapter 4 describes the most useful and popular models of preventive main tenance and replacement. Some practical aspects of applying these models are addressed, such as treating uncertainty in the data, the role of data contamina tion and the opportunistic scheduling of maintenance activities.
The exponential distribution is one of the most significant and widely used distribution in statistical practice. It possesses several important statistical properties, and yet exhibits great mathematical tractability. This volume provides a systematic and comprehensive synthesis of the diverse literature on the theory and applications of the expon
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "For both applied and theoretical statisticians as well as investigators working in the many areas in which relevant use can be made of discriminant techniques, this monograph provides a modern, comprehensive, and systematic account of discriminant analysis, with the focus on the more recent advances in the field." –SciTech Book News ". . . a very useful source of information for any researcher working in discriminant analysis and pattern recognition." –Computational Statistics Discriminant Analysis and Statistical Pattern Recognition provides a systematic account of the subject. While the focus is on practical considerations, both theoretical and practical issues are explored. Among the advances covered are regularized discriminant analysis and bootstrap-based assessment of the performance of a sample-based discriminant rule, and extensions of discriminant analysis motivated by problems in statistical image analysis. The accompanying bibliography contains over 1,200 references.
Much of actuarial science deals with the analysis and management of financial risk. In this text we address the topic of loss models, traditionally called risk theory by actuaries, including the estimation of such models from sample data. The theory of survival models is addressed in other texts, including the ACTEX work entitled Models for Quantifying Risk which might be considered a companion text to this one. In Risk Models and Their Estimation we consider as well the estimation of survival models, in both tabular and parametric form, from sample data. This text is a valuable reference for those preparing for Exam C of the Society of Actuaries and Exam 4 of the Casualty Actuarial Society. A separate solutions' manual with detailed solutions to the text exercises is also available.
A guide that provides in-depth coverage of modeling techniques used throughout many branches of actuarial science, revised and updated Now in its fifth edition, Loss Models: From Data to Decisions puts the focus on material tested in the Society of Actuaries (SOA) newly revised Exams STAM (Short-Term Actuarial Mathematics) and LTAM (Long-Term Actuarial Mathematics). Updated to reflect these exam changes, this vital resource offers actuaries, and those aspiring to the profession, a practical approach to the concepts and techniques needed to succeed in the profession. The techniques are also valuable for anyone who uses loss data to build models for assessing risks of any kind. Loss Models contains a wealth of examples that highlight the real-world applications of the concepts presented, and puts the emphasis on calculations and spreadsheet implementation. With a focus on the loss process, the book reviews the essential quantitative techniques such as random variables, basic distributional quantities, and the recursive method, and discusses techniques for classifying and creating distributions. Parametric, non-parametric, and Bayesian estimation methods are thoroughly covered. In addition, the authors offer practical advice for choosing an appropriate model. This important text: • Presents a revised and updated edition of the classic guide for actuaries that aligns with newly introduced Exams STAM and LTAM • Contains a wealth of exercises taken from previous exams • Includes fresh and additional content related to the material required by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) • Offers a solutions manual available for further insight, and all the data sets and supplemental material are posted on a companion site Written for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA examinations, Loss Models offers an essential guide to the concepts and techniques of actuarial science.
Search Theory and Unemployment contains nine chapters that survey and extend the theory of job search and its application to the problem of unemployment. The volume ranges from surveys of job search theory that take microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives to original theoretical contributions which focus on the externalities arising from non-sequential search and search under imperfect information. It includes a clear and authoritative survey of econometric methods that have been developed to estimate models of job search, as well as two lucid contributions to the empirical search literature. Finally, it includes a study that reviews and extends the literature on optimal unemployment insurance and concludes with an appraisal of the influence of search theory on the thinking of macroeconomic policymakers.
Clinical Trials Comprehensive resource presenting methods essential in planning, designing, conducting, analyzing, and interpreting clinical trials The Fourth Edition of Clinical Trials builds on the text’s reputation as a straightforward, detailed, and authoritative presentation of quantitative methods for clinical trials, discussing principles of design for various types of clinical trials and elements of planning the experiment, assembling a study cohort, assessing data, and reporting results. Each chapter contains an introduction and summary to reinforce key points. Discussion questions stimulate critical thinking and help readers understand how they can apply their newfound knowledge. Written by a highly qualified author with significant experience in the field, the Fourth Edition of Clinical Trials approaches the topic with: Problems that may arise during a trial, and accompanying common sense solutions Design alternatives for addressing many questions in therapeutic development Statistical principles with new and provocative topics, such as generalizing results, operating characteristics, trial issues during the COVID-19 pandemic, and more Alternative medicine, ethics, middle development, comparative studies, adaptive designs, and clinical trials using point of care data Revamped exercise sets, updated and extensive references, new material on endpoints and the developmental pipeline, and revisions of numerous sections, tables, and figures Standing out due to its accessible and broad coverage of statistical design methods which are the building blocks of clinical trials and medical research, Clinical Trials is an essential learning aid on the subject for undergraduate and graduate clinical trials courses.