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This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.
This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides simple and suitable parameter estimation methods in these models, making it a valuable resource for all researchers in this field. The book is addressed to specialists and researchers in the theory and statistics of stochastic processes, practitioners who apply statistical methods of parameter estimation, graduate and post-graduate students who study mathematical modeling and statistics.
A comprehensive account of the statistical theory of exponential families of stochastic processes. The book reviews the progress in the field made over the last ten years or so by the authors - two of the leading experts in the field - and several other researchers. The theory is applied to a broad spectrum of examples, covering a large number of frequently applied stochastic process models with discrete as well as continuous time. To make the reading even easier for statisticians with only a basic background in the theory of stochastic process, the first part of the book is based on classical theory of stochastic processes only, while stochastic calculus is used later. Most of the concepts and tools from stochastic calculus needed when working with inference for stochastic processes are introduced and explained without proof in an appendix. This appendix can also be used independently as an introduction to stochastic calculus for statisticians. Numerous exercises are also included.
Stochastic Analysis aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume “Stochastic Analysis 2010” provides a sample of the current research in the different branches of the subject. It includes the collected works of the participants at the Stochastic Analysis section of the 7th ISAAC Congress organized at Imperial College London in July 2009.
An introduction to computational modeling for cognitive neuroscientists, covering both foundational work and recent developments. Cognitive neuroscientists need sophisticated conceptual tools to make sense of their field’s proliferation of novel theories, methods, and data. Computational modeling is such a tool, enabling researchers to turn theories into precise formulations. This book offers a mathematically gentle and theoretically unified introduction to modeling cognitive processes. Theoretical exercises of varying degrees of difficulty throughout help readers develop their modeling skills. After a general introduction to cognitive modeling and optimization, the book covers models of decision making; supervised learning algorithms, including Hebbian learning, delta rule, and backpropagation; the statistical model analysis methods of model parameter estimation and model evaluation; the three recent cognitive modeling approaches of reinforcement learning, unsupervised learning, and Bayesian models; and models of social interaction. All mathematical concepts are introduced gradually, with no background in advanced topics required. Hints and solutions for exercises and a glossary follow the main text. All code in the book is Python, with the Spyder editor in the Anaconda environment. A GitHub repository with Python files enables readers to access the computer code used and start programming themselves. The book is suitable as an introduction to modeling cognitive processes for students across a range of disciplines and as a reference for researchers interested in a broad overview.
"Written by two renowned experts in the field, the books under review contain a thorough and insightful treatment of the fundamental underpinnings of various aspects of stochastic processes as well as a wide range of applications. Providing clear exposition, deep mathematical results, and superb technical representation, they are masterpieces of the subject of stochastic analysis and nonlinear filtering....These books...will become classics." --SIAM REVIEW
Presents inference and simulation of stochastic process in the field of model calibration for financial times series modelled by continuous time processes and numerical option pricing. Introduces the bases of probability theory and goes on to explain how to model financial times series with continuous models, how to calibrate them from discrete data and further covers option pricing with one or more underlying assets based on these models. Analysis and implementation of models goes beyond the standard Black and Scholes framework and includes Markov switching models, Lévy models and other models with jumps (e.g. the telegraph process); Topics other than option pricing include: volatility and covariation estimation, change point analysis, asymptotic expansion and classification of financial time series from a statistical viewpoint. The book features problems with solutions and examples. All the examples and R code are available as an additional R package, therefore all the examples can be reproduced.
In applications, and especially in mathematical finance, random time-dependent events are often modeled as stochastic processes. Assumptions are made about the structure of such processes, and serious researchers will want to justify those assumptions through the use of data. As statisticians are wont to say, “In God we trust; all others must bring data.” This book establishes the theory of how to go about estimating not just scalar parameters about a proposed model, but also the underlying structure of the model itself. Classic statistical tools are used: the law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem. Researchers have recently developed creative and original methods to use these tools in sophisticated (but highly technical) ways to reveal new details about the underlying structure. For the first time in book form, the authors present these latest techniques, based on research from the last 10 years. They include new findings. This book will be of special interest to researchers, combining the theory of mathematical finance with its investigation using market data, and it will also prove to be useful in a broad range of applications, such as to mathematical biology, chemical engineering, and physics.
Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations and stochastic partial differential equations is the science, art and technology of modeling complex phenomena. The subject has attracted researchers from several areas of mathematics. This volume presents the estimation of the unknown parameters in the corresponding continuous models based on continuous and discrete observations and examines extensively maximum likelihood, minimum contrast and Bayesian methods.
Stochastic processes are widely used for model building in the social, physical, engineering and life sciences as well as in financial economics. In model building, statistical inference for stochastic processes is of great importance from both a theoretical and an applications point of view. This book deals with Fractional Diffusion Processes and statistical inference for such stochastic processes. The main focus of the book is to consider parametric and nonparametric inference problems for fractional diffusion processes when a complete path of the process over a finite interval is observable. Key features: Introduces self-similar processes, fractional Brownian motion and stochastic integration with respect to fractional Brownian motion. Provides a comprehensive review of statistical inference for processes driven by fractional Brownian motion for modelling long range dependence. Presents a study of parametric and nonparametric inference problems for the fractional diffusion process. Discusses the fractional Brownian sheet and infinite dimensional fractional Brownian motion. Includes recent results and developments in the area of statistical inference of fractional diffusion processes. Researchers and students working on the statistics of fractional diffusion processes and applied mathematicians and statisticians involved in stochastic process modelling will benefit from this book.