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This monograph examines the problem of recovering and processing information when the underlying data are limited or partial, and the corresponding models that form the basis for estimation and inference are ill-posed or undermined
Information and Entropy Econometrics - A Review and Synthesis summarizes the basics of information theoretic methods in econometrics and the connecting theme among these methods. The sub-class of methods that treat the observed sample moments as stochastic is discussed in greater details. I Information and Entropy Econometrics - A Review and Synthesis -focuses on inter-connection between information theory, estimation and inference. -provides a detailed survey of information theoretic concepts and quantities used within econometrics and then show how these quantities are used within IEE. -pays special attention for the interpretation of these quantities and for describing the relationships between information theoretic estimators and traditional estimators. Readers need a basic knowledge of econometrics, but do not need prior knowledge of information theory. The survey is self contained and interested readers can replicate all results and examples provided. Whenever necessary the readers are referred to the relevant literature. Information and Entropy Econometrics - A Review and Synthesis will benefit researchers looking for a concise introduction to the basics of IEE and to acquire the basic tools necessary for using and understanding these methods. Applied researchers can use the book to learn improved new methods, and applications for extracting information from noisy and limited data and for learning from these data.
Info-metrics is the science of modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. It plays an important role in helping make informed decisions even when there is inadequate or incomplete information because it provides a framework to process available information with minimal reliance on assumptions that cannot be validated. In this pioneering book, Amos Golan, a leader in info-metrics, focuses on unifying information processing, modeling and inference within a single constrained optimization framework. Foundations of Info-Metrics provides an overview of modeling and inference, rather than a problem specific model, and progresses from the simple premise that information is often insufficient to provide a unique answer for decisions we wish to make. Each decision, or solution, is derived from the available input information along with a choice of inferential procedure. The book contains numerous multidisciplinary applications and case studies, which demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the framework in real world settings. Examples include initial diagnosis at an emergency room, optimal dose decisions, election forecasting, network and information aggregation, weather pattern analyses, portfolio allocation, strategy inference for interacting entities, incorporation of prior information, option pricing, and modeling an interacting social system. Graphical representations illustrate how results can be visualized while exercises and problem sets facilitate extensions. This book is this designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across the disciplines.
This volume deals with two complementary topics. On one hand the book deals with the problem of determining the the probability distribution of a positive compound random variable, a problem which appears in the banking and insurance industries, in many areas of operational research and in reliability problems in the engineering sciences. On the other hand, the methodology proposed to solve such problems, which is based on an application of the maximum entropy method to invert the Laplace transform of the distributions, can be applied to many other problems. The book contains applications to a large variety of problems, including the problem of dependence of the sample data used to estimate empirically the Laplace transform of the random variable. Contents Introduction Frequency models Individual severity models Some detailed examples Some traditional approaches to the aggregation problem Laplace transforms and fractional moment problems The standard maximum entropy method Extensions of the method of maximum entropy Superresolution in maxentropic Laplace transform inversion Sample data dependence Disentangling frequencies and decompounding losses Computations using the maxentropic density Review of statistical procedures
This pioneering graduate textbook provides readers with the concepts and practical tools required to understand the maximum entropy principle, and apply it to an understanding of ecological patterns. Rather than building and combining mechanistic models of ecosystems, the approach is grounded in information theory and the logic of inference. Paralleling the derivation of thermodynamics from the maximum entropy principle, the state variable theory of ecology developed in this book predicts realistic forms for all metrics of ecology that describe patterns in the distribution, abundance, and energetics of species over multiple spatial scales, a wide range of habitats, and diverse taxonomic groups. The first part of the book is foundational, discussing the nature of theory, the relationship of ecology to other sciences, and the concept of the logic of inference. Subsequent sections present the fundamentals of macroecology and of maximum information entropy, starting from first principles. The core of the book integrates these fundamental principles, leading to the derivation and testing of the predictions of the maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE). A final section broadens the book's perspective by showing how METE can help clarify several major issues in conservation biology, placing it in context with other theories and highlighting avenues for future research.
This book explains how to use R software to teach econometrics by providing interesting examples, using actual data applied to important policy issues. It helps readers choose the best method from a wide array of tools and packages available. The data used in the examples along with R program snippets, illustrate the economic theory and sophisticated statistical methods extending the usual regression. The R program snippets are not merely given as black boxes, but include detailed comments which help the reader better understand the software steps and use them as templates for possible extension and modification.
Bayesian probability theory and maximum entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These `new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers, allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. This volume records the Proceedings of Eleventh Annual `Maximum Entropy' Workshop, held at Seattle University in June, 1991. These workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this volume. There are tutorial papers, theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. The contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art review that will be influential and useful for many years to come.
The text and accompanying CD-ROM develop step by step a modern approach to econometric problems. They are aimed at talented upper-level undergraduates, graduate students, and professionals wishing to acquaint themselves with the pinciples and procedures for information processing and recovery from samples of economic data. The text fully provides an operational understanding of a rich set of estimation and inference tools, including tradional likelihood based and non-traditional non-likelihood based procedures, that can be used in conjuction with the computer to address economic problems.
In 1978 Edwin T. Jaynes and Myron Tribus initiated a series of workshops to exchange ideas and recent developments in technical aspects and applications of Bayesian probability theory. The first workshop was held at the University of Wyoming in 1981 organized by C.R. Smith and W.T. Grandy. Due to its success, the workshop was held annually during the last 18 years. Over the years, the emphasis of the workshop shifted gradually from fundamental concepts of Bayesian probability theory to increasingly realistic and challenging applications. The 18th international workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods was held in Garching / Munich (Germany) (27-31. July 1998). Opening lectures by G. Larry Bretthorst and by Myron Tribus were dedicated to one of th the pioneers of Bayesian probability theory who died on the 30 of April 1998: Edwin Thompson Jaynes. Jaynes revealed and advocated the correct meaning of 'probability' as the state of knowledge rather than a physical property. This inter pretation allowed him to unravel longstanding mysteries and paradoxes. Bayesian probability theory, "the logic of science" - as E.T. Jaynes called it - provides the framework to make the best possible scientific inference given all available exper imental and theoretical information. We gratefully acknowledge the efforts of Tribus and Bretthorst in commemorating the outstanding contributions of E.T. Jaynes to the development of probability theory.
Mainly focusing on processing uncertainty, this book presents state-of-the-art techniques and demonstrates their use in applications to econometrics and other areas. Processing uncertainty is essential, considering that computers – which help us understand real-life processes and make better decisions based on that understanding – get their information from measurements or from expert estimates, neither of which is ever 100% accurate. Measurement uncertainty is usually described using probabilistic techniques, while uncertainty in expert estimates is often described using fuzzy techniques. Therefore, it is important to master both techniques for processing data. This book is highly recommended for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges in uncertainty, as well as practitioners who want to learn how to use the corresponding state-of-the-art techniques.