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Several factors contribute to the low level of improved variety use in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the limited availability of seed in the volumes, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, which is partly a result of limited public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment-the Direct Seed Marketing (DSM) approach-to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. DSM was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell seed directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of DSM’s impact on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds, on-farm productivity, and market participation of smallholders. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that DSM led to a 26 percent increase in maize yields and a 5 percent increase in the share of maize harvest sold. DSM also led to improvements in seed availability for all three of Ethiopia’s major cereals: maize, wheat, and teff. However, DSM’s effects on yields and share of harvest sold are not statistically significant for wheat and teff. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explainable by biological differences between hybrid maize and openly pollinated varieties of wheat and teff that incentivize private sector participation in maize seed markets over wheat and teff seed markets. These differences demand different policies and perhaps even institutional approaches to accelerating adoption between hybrids and OPVs.
This report addresses the overarching question regarding the role of institutions in enhancing market development following market reforms. It uses the New Institutional Economics framework to empirically analyze the role of a specific market institution, that of brokers acting as intermediaries to match traders in the Ethiopian grain market in reducing the transaction costs of search faced by traders. Brokers play a key role in facilitating exchange in a weak marketing environment where limited public market information, the lack of grain standardization, oral contracts, and weak legal enforcement of contracts increase the risk of contract failure. Relying on primary data, it analyzes traders' microeconomic behavior, social capital, the nature and extent of their transaction costs, and the norms and rules governing the relationship between brokers and traders.The study uses an innovative approach to quantify the costs of search and demonstrates that the brokerage institution is economically efficient both for individual traders and for global economic welfare.
In many Sub-Saharan countries, farmers cannot meet the growing urban demand for higher quality products, leading to increasing dependency on imports. While the literature has focused on production-side constraints to enhancing smallholder farmers’ output quality, there is scarce evidence of market-side constraints. Using a unique sample of 60 wheat markets in Ethiopia, I examine the relationship between the price obtained by farmers and the quality supplied. Using objective and precise measures of observable (impurity content) and unobservable (flour extraction rate and moisture level) quality attributes, no evidence was found of a strong correlation between the two, suggesting that observable attributes cannot serve as proxies for unobservable ones. Transaction prices further reflect this, indicating that, markets only reward quality attributes that are observable at no cost. However, these results hide cross-market heterogeneity. Observable quality attributes are better rewarded in larger and more competitive markets, while unobservable attributes are rewarded in the presence of grain millers and/or farmer cooperatives on the market site. Both regression and machine learning approaches support these findings.