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"This book examines in more detail three specific manufacturing sectors: information technology industries, which have been high-growth areas of the economy and internationally competitive; the automotive sector, which has been affected by high levels of import penetration and is divided between the "Big Three" U.S. manufacturers and "transplants"; and, textiles and apparel, which are facing a high level of import competition and have experienced large numbers of job loses." -- Preface.
Recent years have yielded significant advances in computing and communication technologies, with profound impacts on society. Technology is transforming the way we work, play, and interact with others. From these technological capabilities, new industries, organizational forms, and business models are emerging. Technological advances can create enormous economic and other benefits, but can also lead to significant changes for workers. IT and automation can change the way work is conducted, by augmenting or replacing workers in specific tasks. This can shift the demand for some types of human labor, eliminating some jobs and creating new ones. Information Technology and the U.S. Workforce explores the interactions between technological, economic, and societal trends and identifies possible near-term developments for work. This report emphasizes the need to understand and track these trends and develop strategies to inform, prepare for, and respond to changes in the labor market. It offers evaluations of what is known, notes open questions to be addressed, and identifies promising research pathways moving forward.
While international trade in goods and services has long been expanding, the speed and scope of recent changes have given rise to the term ¿globalization.¿ Among the most pressing policy questions in the United States and other advanced economies are those concerning the impact of globalization: Has globalization fostered productivity growth and well-being in advanced economies? Or have the forces of globalization weakened key national industries, resulted in widespread worker dislocation and wage stagnation, and worsened inequality? Understanding the impacts of globalization is critical to fashioning appropriate policies in a rapidly changing world. But understanding its impacts requires good data, and national statistical systems were not designed to measure many of the transactions occurring in today¿s global economy. The chapters in this volume and its companion, Measuring Global­ization: Biases to Price, Output, and Productivity Statistics from Trade, identify biases and gaps in national statistics, examine the magnitude of the problems they pose, and propose solutions to address significant biases and fill key data gaps. The chapters originally were presented as papers at a research conference in 2013 funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and their authors include researchers from academic insti­tutions and statistics agencies in the United States and other countries.
World-renowned economist Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, explains that we have an opportunity to shape the fourth industrial revolu­tion, which will fundamentally alter how we live and work. Schwab argues that this revolution is different in scale, scope and complexity from any that have come before. Characterized by a range of new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the developments are affecting all disciplines, economies, industries and governments, and even challenging ideas about what it means to be human. Artificial intelligence is already all around us, from supercomputers, drones and virtual assistants to 3D printing, DNA sequencing, smart thermostats, wear­able sensors and microchips smaller than a grain of sand. But this is just the beginning: nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than a strand of hair and the first transplant of a 3D printed liver are already in development. Imagine “smart factories” in which global systems of manu­facturing are coordinated virtually, or implantable mobile phones made of biosynthetic materials. The fourth industrial revolution, says Schwab, is more significant, and its ramifications more profound, than in any prior period of human history. He outlines the key technologies driving this revolution and discusses the major impacts expected on government, business, civil society and individu­als. Schwab also offers bold ideas on how to harness these changes and shape a better future—one in which technology empowers people rather than replaces them; progress serves society rather than disrupts it; and in which innovators respect moral and ethical boundaries rather than cross them. We all have the opportunity to contribute to developing new frame­works that advance progress.
Rebound takes the currently unthinkable view that the economy will bounce back faster and stronger from the downturn than most economists expect. Noted Labor economist Stephen J. Rose amasses data on the economic performance of America over the last 30 years to debunk myths about declining middle class incomes, burger-flipping jobs and global competition. He also describes the evolution of the financial crisis and mortgage lending implosion under the rubric of "brilliant idiocy" to show how the investors, financial firms, and regulators all made devastating mistakes in pursuit of quick gains. The book argues forcefully that simple financial regulation and forthcoming investments in education, health care and energy will pay quick and healthy dividends. Using economic analysis rather than partisan argument, Rebound cuts through the clutter of political debate to show how the economy will return to high growth rates.
Technology and globalization are threatening manufacturing’s traditional ability to deliver both productivity and jobs at a large scale for unskilled workers. Concerns about widening inequality within and across countries are raising questions about whether interventions are needed and how effective they could be. Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development addresses three questions: - How has the global manufacturing landscape changed and why does this matter for development opportunities? - How are emerging trends in technology and globalization likely to shape the feasibility and desirability of manufacturing-led development in the future? - If low wages are going to be less important in defining competitiveness, how can less industrialized countries make the most of new opportunities that shifting technologies and globalization patterns may bring? The book examines the impacts of new technologies (i.e., the Internet of Things, 3-D printing, and advanced robotics), rising international competition, and increased servicification on manufacturing productivity and employment. The aim is to inform policy choices for countries currently producing and for those seeking to enter new manufacturing markets. Increased polarization is a risk, but the book analyzes ways to go beyond focusing on potential disruptions to position workers, firms, and locations for new opportunities. www.worldbank.org/futureofmanufacturing
This volume contains six studies on current topics in macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S. financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes “factorless income,” output that is not measured as capital or labor income. Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes.