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This book analyzes the structural factors that underlie the persistent mass poverty and extreme inequality in South Asian countries. It highlights the fact that the supposed trade-off between output growth and job creation is a false dilemma. Growth can create jobs, and jobs can drive growth, mutually reinforcing one another. Increased employment and better jobs would mitigate the problems arising from a widening inequality gap. The book argues that policies focused on employment generation, mostly through industrialization, are the way forward in terms of providing livelihoods, sustaining growth and reducing inequality. The book is divided into two main parts. Part A explores cases in selected countries in South Asia in detail, primarily focusing on the opportunities and challenges of job creation in the manufacturing sector, as well as related issues, including constraints on manufacturing-sector growth in South Asia, exports and trade linkages, participation in value chains and the role of investment. In turn, Part B addresses a number of aspects that can promote a deeper understanding of strategies for industrialization and employment creation in the South Asian context, including regional cooperation, skill development, and industrial competitiveness. Gathering contributions from some of the region’s top minds, this book is of interest to scholars, researchers, policymakers and industry analysts alike.
South Asia has created nearly 800,000 jobs per month during the last decade. Robust economic growth in large parts of the region has created better jobs -- those that pay higher wages for wage workers and reduce poverty for the self-employed, the largest segment of the region’s employed. Going forward, South Asia faces the enormous challenge of absorbing 1 to 1.2 million entrants to the labor force every month for the next two decades at rising levels of productivity. This calls for an agenda that cuts across sectors and includes improving the reliability of electricity supply for firms in both urban and rural settings, dealing decisively with issues of governance and corruption, making access to land easier for urban informal firms and strengthening transport links between rural firms and their markets. It requires improving nutrition in early childhood to avoid cognitive impairment, intensifying the focus on quality of learning in education systems, equipping workers with the skills that employers demand, and reorienting labor market regulations and programs to protect workers rather than jobs. The continuance of high economic growth to help improve job quality is not assured. But the region’s demography can provide a favorable tailwind. The growth of workers exceeds that of dependents in much of the region. The resources saved from having fewer dependents can be shifted to high-priority investments in physical and human capital accumulation necessary to create productive jobs in countries with an enabling policy framework. But the demographic window of opportunity is open for only the next three decades, a fact which lends urgency to the reform agenda. This book will be of interest to policy makers, their advisers, researchers and students of economics who seek solutions, not only to the challenge of creating more and better jobs in South Asia but globally as well. It is the first title in South Asia Development Matters,a new series that will serve as a vehicle for in-depth synthesis of economic and policy analysis on key development topics for South Asia.
South Asia is in the midst of a demographic transition. For the next three decades, the growth of the region’s working age population will far outpace the growth of dependents. Close to one million individuals will enter the workforce every month. This large, economically active population can increase the region’s capacity to save and make crucial investments in physical capital, job training, and technological advancement. But for South Asia to realize these dividends, it must ensure that its working-age population is productively employed. As one of the most prominent labor-intensive industries in developing countries, apparel manufacturing is a prime contender. With around 4.7 million workers in the formal sector and another estimated 20.3 million informally employed (combined with textiles), apparel already constitutes close to 40 percent of manufacturing employment. And given that much of apparel production continues to be labor-intensive, the potential to create more and better jobs is immense. There is a huge window of opportunity now for South Asia, given that China, the dominant producer for the last ten years, has started to cede some ground due to higher wages. But the region faces strong competition from East Asia—with Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam already pulling ahead. Plus the sector suffers from production inefficiencies and policy bottlenecks that have prevented it from achieving its potential. Against this backdrop, this report hopes to inform the debate by measuring the employment gains that the four most populous countries in South Asia—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (hereafter `SAR countries’)—can expect in this new environment of increased competition and scrutiny. Its main message is that it is important for South Asian economies to remove existing impediments and facilitate growth in apparel to capture more production and create more employment as wages rise in China. The successful manufacturers will be those who can supply a wide range of quality products to buyers rapidly and reliably—not just offer low costs.
South Asia has grown rapidly with significant reductions in poverty, but it has not been able to match the fast-growing working age population, leading to lingering concerns about jobless growth and poor job quality. Could export growth in South Asia result in better labor market outcomes? The answer is yes, according to our study, which rigorously estimates—using a new methodology—the potential impact from higher South Asian exports per worker on wages and employment over a 10-year period. Our study shows the positive side of trade. It finds that increasing exports per worker would result in higher wages—mainly for better-off groups, like more educated workers, males, and more-experienced workers—although less-skilled workers would see the largest reduction in informality. How can the benefits be spread more widely? Our study suggests that scaling up exports in labor-intensive industries could significantly lower informality for groups like rural and less-educated workers in the region. Also, increasing skills, and participation of women and young workers in the labor force could make an even bigger dent in informal employment. The region could achieve these gains by: (i) boosting and connecting exports to people (e.g., removing trade barriers and investment in infrastructure); (ii) eliminating distortions in production (e.g., by more efficient allocation of inputs); and (iii) protecting workers (e.g., by investing in education and skills).
An oft-cited strategy to advance economic development is to further integrate developing countries into global trade, particularly through global value chains, bolstered by the expansion of female-intensive industries to bring more women into the formal labor force. As a result, a frequent debate centers on whether the apparel industry--the most female-intensive and globally engaged manufacturing industry--can be a key player in this strategy. In recent decades, the apparel industry has shifted production to low-wage developing countries, increasing the demand for women, closing male-female wage gaps, and bringing women into the formal labor force from agriculture and informal work. But is an apparel-led export strategy sufficient to induce a broader transition from jobs women do to survive to careers promising stable employment and a sense of identity? 'From Jobs to Careers' answers this question by focusing on seven countries where apparel plays a vital role in their export baskets--Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Vietnam. It finds that the apparel industry indeed can serve as a launching pad to bring more women into the labor market. For this approach to work, however, complementary policies must tackle the barriers that hinder women's pursuit of long-term workforce participation and better-paid occupations. Key policy recommendations include increasing the participation of female production workers in export-oriented apparel manufacturing and associated industries, upgrading within manufacturing-related industries, boosting access to education, and breaking glass ceilings. The report also seeks to shift the paradigm of how we think of women in the labor force by stressing the importance of their transition from jobs to careers--the so-called 'quiet revolution.'
South Asia has created nearly 800,000 jobs per month during the last decade. Robust economic growth in large parts of the region has created better jobs -- those that pay higher wages for wage workers and reduce poverty for the self-employed, the largest segment of the region s employed. Going forward, South Asia faces the enormous challenge of absorbing 1 to 1.2 million entrants to the labor force every month for the next two decades at rising levels of productivity. This calls for an agenda that cuts across sectors and includes improving the reliability of electricity supply for firms in both urban and rural settings, dealing decisively with issues of governance and corruption, making access to land easier for urban informal firms and strengthening transport links between rural firms and their markets. It requires improving nutrition in early childhood to avoid cognitive impairment, intensifying the focus on quality of learning in education systems, equipping workers with the skills that employers demand, and reorienting labor market regulations and programs to protect workers rather than jobs. The continuance of high economic growth to help improve job quality is not assured. But the region s demography can provide a favorable tailwind. The growth of workers exceeds that of dependents in much of the region. The resources saved from having fewer dependents can be shifted to high-priority investments in physical and human capital accumulation necessary to create productive jobs in countries with an enabling policy framework. But the demographic window of opportunity is open for only the next three decades, a fact which lends urgency to the reform agenda. This book will be of interest to policy makers, their advisers, researchers and students of economics who seek solutions, not only to the challenge of creating more and better jobs in South Asia but globally as well. It is the first title in South Asia Development Matters,a new series that will serve as a vehicle for in-depth synthesis of economic and policy analysis on key development topics for South Asia.
How can industrial production be managed without the guidance of the state? Adnan Naseemullah discusses industrial development in a new era of drastically constricted state capacity, from the perspective of the manufacturing firm. India's manufacturing economy has been growing after state promotion has receded. How, then, does Indian manufacturing develop in this context? Naseemullah argues that Indian firms must create production structures themselves, investing in networks of capital and labor without signals from above. Depending on manufacturers' backgrounds, these relationships are based either on formal rules or through personal ties, creating a patchwork of institutions that crosscut region and sector. As a result, many firms have been able to regain some certainty for investment, but at the cost of national coherence and the possibility of broader transformation. As a mirror case, this book also explores Pakistan's industrial trajectories, in which similar dynamics suggest the broader applicability of this framework.
There are numerous labour and employment issues facing South Asia in this era of growth. With critical examination of ongoing labour reforms, and using extensive field surveys, this book will be of interest to all seeking an analysis of labour economics, labour laws, economic growth and globalization in South Asia.
The Indian manufacturing sector has rapidly increased its integration with the world economy since the 1991 trade reforms. We examine whether trade integration created or destroyed jobs in the Indian manufacturing sector, and compare India's employment outcomes with four other countries--Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, and Vietnam. We find that the impact of international trade on manufacturing employment seems to be similar to those found for the two African countries rather than the two Asian countries, a surprising result for a country with an apparent comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing goods, and a large excess supply of unskilled labor.
South Asia region’s economies continue on a recovery path, with production and export having recovered to pre-COVID trend levels. But the recovery has been uneven across countries and sectors, and significant risks exist that could jeopardize short-term recovery and long-term growth. Over the short-term, low vaccination rates in most countries in the region make the population and economies vulnerable to future COVID waves and lockdowns; supply shortages due to global supply bottlenecks continue to put upward pressure on (food) inflation, especially after consumption recovers. Over the long-term, the region faces long-lasting scarring effects from the pandemic. The emergence of a new services economy creates an opportunity for the region to shift gears and to move towards a services-led development model. The importance of services has been increasing over time and got a further boost during the response to the COVID pandemic, when digital technologies became critical. This new services economy comprises not just the ICT sector, but also business and professional services that are increasingly critical inputs into manufacturing and other sectors, and digital platforms that are creating new markets. It can become the driver of development in South Asia because 1) Services are increasingly tradable and also represent a large part of value added incorporated in the exports of goods. 2) Services firms can drive productivity growth because of innovations that make their own products and other industries more efficient 3) The services sector also generates jobs and helps upgrading skills through on-the-job training. To unleash the potential of the new services economy, policy makers should rethink regulations and establish new institutions to enable 1) competition and innovation 2) increased labor mobility and up-skilling, through education and on-the job training; 3) the absorption of new services by firms and households. Governments in South Asia are addressing these new realities, but they face major challenges. With countries worldwide struggling to find an optimal institutional environment for the new services sectors, a good option for South Asia is to experiment with regulatory sandboxes.