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As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Though well-established in the commercial sector, the use of market-based price risk management is not widespread in the public sector, particularly by sovereigns. Recent volatility in energy and food prices, however, has awakened the interest of some governments to learn more about how they can either use these tools, or foster supportive environment where these tools can be used by local supply chain actors. Equally important is ensuring that non-price related risks are isolated, monitored, and managed independent of direct price exposure. This note reviews lessons learned from recent efforts to advance risk management strategies in countries vulnerable to food and energy price shocks. It focuses specifically on the use of market-based risk management approaches and use by sovereigns. For governments concerned about the risk of food price shocks, the fiscal impact is equally complicated as governments may be concerned about the impact of rising food prices on consumers, the need to finance, and potentially supply, subsidies or social safety nets for vulnerable populations or, in extreme cases, humanitarian operations. In both cases, the costs of budget uncertainty and the need to finance responses in the event of a shock can be significant. Finally, though not typically used to manage specific intra-annual or intra-seasonal price exposures, commodity-linked loans or bonds can also be used to manage exposure to price shocks on a more macro level.
This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.
Commodity export dependency confers ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty upon producing countries. What reduces growth is not the prospect of volatile world prices, but the actual realization of negative shocks.Dehn estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts and it is both theoretically and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous.He shows that the interaction between policy and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject:- It deals with issues of endogeneity without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency.- It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks.- It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock and uncertainty specifications.Dehn resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income).He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of commodity price risks on developing economies. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Commodity-exporting countries have significantly benefited from the commodity price boom of recent years. At the current juncture, however, uncertain global economic prospects have raised questions about their vulnerability to a sharp fall in commodity prices and the policies that can shield it from such a shock. To address these questions, this paper takes a long term (4 decade) view at emerging markets' commodity dependence, the history of commodity price busts and the role of policies in mitigating or amplifying their economic impact. The paper highlights the stark difference in trends between Latin America - one of the most vulnerable regions given its high, and rising, commodity dependence - and emerging Asia - which has evolved from being a net exporter to a net importer of commodities in the last 40 years. We find evidence, however, that while commodity dependence is an important ingredient, a country's ultimate degree of vulnerability to commodity price shocks is to a great extent determined by the flexibility and quality of its policy framework. Policies in the run-up of sharp terms-of-trade drops - especially when those are preceded by booms - play a particularly important role. Limited exchange rate flexibility, a weak external position, and loose fiscal policy tend to amplify the negative effects of these shocks on domestic output. Financial dollarization also appears to act as a shock "amplifier."
In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.